Eight agricultural theme funds have recently risen, and the "pig cycle" is here again?

On July 6, Capital State learned that with the rebound of the market, the agricultural sector also opened the rise range. Choice data showed that the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing (Shenwan) industry in the last month (June 6th-July 5th, the same below, the same below ) It rose 14.12%, and "pig cycles" and other "pig cycles" stocks such as Aoon Biological, superstar farmers and animal husbandry, Wen's shares, and Muyuan shares rose significantly.

On Choice data, a total of eight theme funds of the agricultural and animal husbandry and fishing industry (separated share). These funds have increased significantly in the past month, all of which are more than 10%, up to 20%. Specifically, the Agricultural Selection LOF (164403) under the Qianhai Open Source Fund has risen 19.83%in the past month, and successfully reached the top of the list. Cathay Pacific CSI's livestock breeding ETF connecting A/C rose more than 17%, and the Gast China Agricultural Industry Stock A (003634) rose 16.08%. Tianhongzhong's agricultural theme A/C rose more than 15%, Yinhua Agricultural Industry Stocks initiated A (005106) increase also reached 14.30%. In addition, Cathay Pacific Agricultural Stock A (001579) rose 12.27%at the same time.

Chart source: choice data

From the perspective of holding stocks, the above -mentioned funds are mostly related to the "pig cycle" related stocks. Taking the best agricultural selection LOF (164403) as an example, the fund was at the end of the first quarter of 2022. For: Wen's Co., Ltd., Tianbang, Xinwufeng, Tangshen, superstar farm and animal husbandry, Tiankang Biological, Aonon Biological, Zhongmana, Muyuan, Huatong, and Huatong, the proportion of the aquaculture industry has 53%.

Chart source: choice data

In terms of fundamental terms, according to the main business data of the breeding business in June 2022 recently announced by a number of pig companies, pig companies have shown a trend of volume and price in June.

Among them, Muyuan sold 5.279 million pigs in June (including 986,000 pigs sales), with sales revenue of 8.754 billion yuan; the average sales price of commercial pigs was 16.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.16%over May 2022.

The sales volume of Aoon Biological June was 486,900, and the sales volume increased by 14.58%month -on -month, an increase of 117.58%year -on -year. From January to June 2022, the company sold a total of 2.343 million pigs, and sales increased by 86.14%year-on-year.

In June, Jinxin Nong's pig sales in June totaling 131,800 heads, totaling sales revenue of 147 million yuan, and average sales price of pigs were 22.15 yuan/kg (the average price of commercial pigs was 17.26 yuan/kg after the influence of piglets and pigs was removed). The average price of the average price was 12.78%, 11.93%, and 8.33%, respectively, with a year -on -year change of 71.87%, 4.21%, and 27.56%, respectively.

Cathay Pacific China Securities Animal Husbandry Breeding ETF Linking Fund Manager Liang Xing believes in the first quarter report that in the second and third quarters of 2022, it is expected to usher in the fund's fundamental reversal. The pig's column takes about 10 months, and it has a leading instruction.

The latest research report of Huatai Securities believes that from historical experience, when a round of cycles end signs, the bottom of the price falls from April to May. Because summer is often the off -season of pork consumption, the real column will wait until the winter pickled season. Since then, the amount of sow can have significant downward declines, thereby opening a new round of "pig cycle" upward.

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