CPE price deposit space adjustment space

Since June, downstream orders have decreased, and the pressure on the shipping of polyethylene (CPE) production enterprises has gradually emerged, and the price is weak. As of July 1, the mainstream price of CPE135A in Shandong's national standard was 10,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), a decrease of 1,000 yuan from the highest price of 11,000 yuan in early June, a decrease of 9.1%.

Regarding the market trend in the later period, many people in the industry analyzed that under the influence of the short -term CPE market price of the short -term CPE market may decline under the influence of the decrease in the decline in the decline in the decline in the price of liquid liquid chlorine, the insufficient follow -up of the dual -weak downstream orders, and the high level of production enterprise inventory.

Raw material price decline

"One of the main reasons for the faster price of the CPE market is the change in the cost end." Zhuo Chuang Information CPE analyst Guo Juan analyzed.

It is understood that liquid chlorine accounts for 30%of the CPE cost. Since June, the production of liquid chlorine is relatively sufficient, most of the downstream products have weakened, and some products have poor profitability. The demand for liquid chlorine has decreased, resulting in the continuous decline in liquid chlorine prices. As of July 4, the prices of Shandong in the main area of ​​liquid chlorine have fallen from 1050 yuan in early June to 250 ~ 300 yuan, and CPE production costs have been declining.

"In July, chlorine -alkali enterprises planned less, and the partially added capacity planned planned plan was put into production. The supply of liquid chlorine was still sufficient. Shop, it is expected that the liquid chlorine market may continue to fall down in most areas, and it is difficult to drive CPE prices to rise at the cost side. "Li Xue, an analyst of Longzhong Information CPE.

Lower demand is weak

Recently, CPE mainly has a low operating rate of downstream polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes and PVC profile enterprises, and has a weak demand for CPE.

In June, PVC's shipments were blocked, and some companies began to reduce prices, which led to the recent PVC market fell faster.

"In the near future, the downstream orders have significantly tightened and the operating rate has decreased, which has caused PVC production enterprises to ship difficulty and high inventory. As of now, the inventory of PVC production enterprises has increased by 22%month -on -month, above 360,000 tons; More than 710,000 tons. "Said Cui Yan, an analyst of Longzhong Information PVC.

At present, the PVC production enterprise is basically losing money. Taking Shandong as an example, some local PVCs have the cost of tons of foreign stones at about 7916 yuan, while the current PVC market price is 7300 ~ 7,500 yuan. Enterprise losses are obvious and the production intention is not strong.

From the perspective of the terminal, from January to May, the accumulation of real estate construction area decreased by 1%year -on -year, the new construction area accumulated decreased by 30.6%year -on -year, the accumulation of the completion area decreased by 15.3%year -on -year. Obviously weakened.

"The real estate industry has not performed well, and the rainy season in the south continues to affect the production and sales of downstream factories. PVC's domestic demand will be difficult to improve in the short term. In addition, the PVC pre -sale quotation in Taiwan in Taiwan has fallen 90 US dollars from the previous month. Signs signs, which will affect the domestic market. It is expected that the short -term PVC will continue to continue weakly sorting, and it is difficult to drive CPE prices to rise on the demand side. "Cui Yan said.

Enterprise inventory

Zhuochuang Information data shows that CPE is an overcapacity industry, with total domestic production capacity of 1.1465 million tons/year. The overall construction load is maintained at about 40 %, and demand occupies a dominant position.

In the first half of the year, the main downstream PVC profiles and PVC pipes companies in the domestic CPE maintained had a low intention to maintain CPE and have a low intention of replenishment; foreign export orders also decreased last year. Double weaknesses in inside and outside cause CPE's supply in circulation slow, and corporate inventory is at a high level.

"In the later period of the CPE market, it mainly depends on the performance of the demand side. Because the industry is not optimistic about CPE's later demand, some CPE enterprises have large inventory, and they are forced to reduce load operation. The overall operating rate of the CPE industry has been going down. As of June, the overall operating rate of the CPE industry was 41.96%, a decrease of 6.66%from March. "Guo Juan said.

In summary, under the weak demand, the short -term CPE shipments will not be reduced. It is expected that the market may further show a weak trend. The price will continue to decline, and the decline space will be 200 ~ 500 yuan.

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