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Blue words, reference to Zhengshang reference.

BY Zhengshang Reference (WeChat's best financial reading, passing political and economic information from a professional perspective, in-depth interpretation of financial news, here you can understand more real China) WeChat: ZSNC-OK

Affected by the 264 trillion yuan of tax refund and the impact of the epidemic situation, many local fiscal revenue this year rarely declined, while rigid expenditure continued, and the contradiction between income and expenditure increased, which exceeded some places expected at the beginning of the year.

Recently, densely adjusted budgets in various provinces and cities, which are conventional actions, mainly increased borrowing debts in accordance with the law. However, including some new actions including Chongqing and other places, in order to cope with the income and expenditure gaps brought about by tax refunds, it has adopted the optimized fiscal expenditure structure, compressed the general government expenditure of the government, etc. to make up for major fields such as income gaps and support people's livelihood.

Several municipal financial sources told First Finance that in the context of the current fiscal revenue and expenditure contradictions, it has been considering reducing budget revenue and expenditure, including reducing general government expenditures and some project expenditures. Control, people's livelihood and other fields.

The revenue gap needs to adjust the budget

All provinces and cities generally determine the budget of the year at the beginning of the year. At that time, many places did not expect that the scale of tax refunds this year was 2.64 trillion yuan, reaching the highest value in history. While reducing the burden on the enterprise, it also caused financial harvesting, the impact of the impact of the epidemic impact, the impact of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, and the downturn in the land market, and the general decline in local fiscal revenue.

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first five months of this year, the local general public budget's income was about 4.62 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 8.9%. Local government fund budgets have a revenue of about 2.05 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 27.6%.

In order to make up for local finances, the central government has increased the payment of local transfer payment this year, and the scale is approaching 10 trillion yuan, a new high of the past few years. Most of the annual tax refund and tax reduction and fees were reduced, and the central government was actually borne by the central government. However, because the rigid expenditures such as people's livelihood, debt, and epidemic prevention and control have not diminished, many local fiscal revenue and expenditure contradictions have increased.

Recently, the budgets are adjusted densely in various places. This is mainly because the Ministry of Finance has issued a new debt amount in various places throughout the year. All localities need to include it into the budget according to law and adjust the corresponding budget revenue and expenditure. However, in addition to this routine, Chongqing and other places have also adjusted the expenditure budget at the beginning of the year for the latest fiscal revenue and expenditure.

According to the "Report on the 2022 Municipal Budget Adjustment Plan for 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), the comprehensive reduction of the prediction and the central subsidy, the Chongqing city level still has a financial gap. In order to cope with the reduction, Chongqing plans to take greater efforts to reduce non -emergency demand and non -rigid expenditure. For the expenditure budget arranged by the financial resources at the municipal level, in addition to the rigid expenditure such as salary, operation, and basic people's livelihood, a total of 5 billion yuan is reduced.

Among them, Chongqing's public funds are reduced according to the standard per capita per capita; for general projects, it is divided into classification according to the per capita expenditure levels; The factors are reduced.

The "Report" states that the above -mentioned reduction of 5 billion yuan is used to supplement the budget stability adjustment fund. In the second half of this year, according to the actual implementation situation, the budget stability adjustment fund balance reduction gap is reduced.

According to data from the Chongqing Finance Bureau, in the first five months of this year, the general public budget revenue of the city decreased by 14.9%year -on -year; the budget revenue of the municipal government funds decreased by 46.8%year -on -year. The decline in these two income is significantly greater than the average value of the aforementioned local.

Not only in Chongqing, but also Liu Xiaomei, director of the Suzhou Finance Bureau, recently made a report on "Suzhou 2022 Budget Adjustment Plan (Draft) in Suzhou 2022" that the city's fiscal revenue and expenditure contradictions are very prominent and need to be optimized and adjusted at the beginning of the year.

Suzhou's above -mentioned budget adjustment report states that in terms of income, considering that with economic operations entering the upward restoration period, fiscal revenue is expected to rise steadily, and the tax reduction and tax slowing policy is still uncertain. Adjustment.

In terms of fiscal expenditure, in addition to bond issuance of budget expenditures, other structural adjustments are required. The main measures are: reduce public funding, official reception expenses, conference fees, training fees, due to publicity of abroad; The impact of the project progress; the expenditure of various non -rigidity, non -emergency project expenditures, and coordinating the urgency of epidemic conditions and bailout.

Wang Zhenyu, Dean of Liaoning University Local Finance Research Institute, told First Finance that the current reduction of expenditure budgets is not common. This is because the local budget at the beginning of the year is very cautious, and many expenditures are compulsory people's livelihood expenditures. With the relief of the epidemic and the more accurate policies of the epidemic prevention, the economic recovery of June and its annual economic recovery created conditions for the completion of the annual revenue budget.

According to the public information, as the income declines, many local governments have increased their pressure to reduce general expenditure.

For example, at the end of June, Han Jun, deputy secretary of the Jilin Provincial Party Committee and governor, went to the Provincial Department of Finance and the Provincial Taxation Bureau to investigate, emphasizing insistence on a tight life, weaving "iron wire mesh", playing "iron abacus", "iron cock", and doing it. Save and promote simplification and luxury, vigorously reduce non -rigidity and non -emergency expenditure, and use limited funds on the blade.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, told First Financial that in the context of this year's super -expected epidemic impact and land transfer revenue, revenue decreased, increasing rescue expenditure, and the local fiscal situation was extremely tight, especially in the next stage, especially in the next stage. The contradiction between income and expenditure in the fourth quarter will increase significantly. As a result, future local governments may gradually increase their revenue and expenditure. By reducing non -rigidity and necessary expenditures, and optimizing expenditure structures, there is a choice for local governments. The Kunming Finance Bureau recently issued a document requesting that before the "three guarantees" expenditures were implemented, other matters were not allowed to be expended before the "three guarantees" expenditures. Priority to ensure rigid expenditure such as "three guarantees".

Multiple measures to alleviate the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure

In fact, since 2014, fiscal revenue has entered low -speed growth, local governments have reduced non -emergency and non -rigid expenditure efforts to increase year by year, and the corresponding space for Teng Nuo's financial resources has become smaller and smaller. The contradiction between the fiscal revenue and expenditure requires multiple measures. The first thing is to stabilize the basic economy, and economic growth can ensure income growth.

Recently, the State Council has introduced a package of stable economic measures, and there are also corresponding supporting measures in various places. With the implementation, the economy has begun to bottom out since May, which has laid the foundation for local fiscal revenue growth.

"The contradiction between the fiscal revenue and expenditure can be resolved by revitalizing the amount of capital capital, the increase in the profit of local state -owned assets, and the central government's leverage transfer to the local." Luo Zhiheng said.

Normal capital funds have become an important measure to resolve the contradiction between local fiscal revenue and expenditure and expand effective investment.

The State Council recently issued a clear article that the amount of funds for survival of the disk is increasing. In the area of ​​less than two years of transfer funds, it is not necessary to recover the area where the funds used by the original use are recovered in the area where the economic and social development urgently needs support. In addition, the General Office of the State Council also issued the "Opinions on Further Activating the Effective Investment of Assets to Expansion of Volume", which expands effective investment by revitalizing the existing assets in the infrastructure field.

In addition, some experts have made suggestions that according to the economic and social development situation in the second half of the year, we can consider increasing fiscal deficit or issuing special government bonds to alleviate the contradiction between local fiscal revenue and expenditure.

"It can be considered to implement the issuance of special government bonds in 2020, and give some funds to the place to make up for the phased fiscal revenue and expenditure gap caused by the epidemic and tax refund and fee reduction." Wang Zhenyu said.

Luo Zhiheng believes that there may be three options for incremental fiscal policy in the next step. One is to issue special government bonds; the other is to increase the deficit rate; the third is to issue a special debt quota of 2023 in advance and use it in the fourth quarter.

Source | First Financial Author/Chen Yi Journal

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