240 billion yuan in the history of the most aircraft in the history of the Chinese civil aviation industry out of the huge loss

not

For China's civil aviation industry

Without recovery in the international route market

Talking about turning losses is early

Every time I passed the international passenger plane, Pan Xiaoliang couldn't help but look at the floor -to -ceiling windows and look for the "old partner" who has been with him for more than ten years. Before the epidemic, these wide -body passenger planes that could carry more than 300 people kept running almost at the moment, staying on the ground for a maximum of hours, and during the period, there were also work and unloading, customers, customers, refueling, maintenance and other work. At this moment, they are like swallowing the golden beasts, lying boringly on the ground, only consumed without output.

There is a saying in the civil aviation industry: the plane parked on the sun to bask in the sun, as if he could hear the sound of money melting.

After the Spring Festival in 2022, first -tier cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing have successively appeared in the epidemic, prevention and control measures have been introduced in various places. Oil prices have risen, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates, and the operating costs of the aviation industry have increased repeatedly. After two consecutive years of downturn operation, the "March 21" Eastern Airlines MU5735 Aircraft flight accident once again covered the industry. The demand for civil aviation travel was further suppressed, and the industry ushered in a difficult time.

Passengers traveling at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport on June 29. Picture/Surging Image

According to statistics from the Civil Aviation Administration, in March this year, the industry completed 15.37 million passenger transportation volume, a decrease of nearly 70 % year -on -year. By April, passengers' transport volume was further cut, and only 7.88 million passengers were recorded, and the industry passenger transport levels were returned 20 years ago. The industry losses are still expanding. According to the "Civil Aviation Industry Development Statistics Bulletin" released by the official website of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the industry loses 84.25 billion yuan last year. In April of this year, the entire civil aviation industry lost 33.02 billion yuan, setting a record of the largest monthly losses in history, and the entire industry losses for 9 months.

On the evening of July 1, Southern Airlines, Air China, and China China Eastern Airlines successively announced the "epic -level list". It is planned to purchase 292 aerial passenger A320NEO passenger aircraft. The directory price is 37.257 billion US dollars, converted to more than 240 billion yuan. The transactions are the largest number of orders and the highest order amount in the number of aircraft purchase orders.

Has the signal of the aviation industry recovered? For China's civil aviation industry, it is too early to talk about losses without recovery in the international route market. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the civil aviation industry regulatory authorities issued the "five one" policy to restrict international flights to prevent the risk of input in the epidemic. In the past two years, the number of international flights has decreased by about 90 % compared with 2019. Under the pressure, more than two years, this policy has gradually showed signs of relaxation in the near future.

The flight was grounded, "the wallet is empty"

After the Lantern Festival this year, Robin has not received a new flight task for more than three consecutive months. Before the epidemic, Robin often performed international flights in a row. Each work means that he was not at home for more than ten days. In the three months from winter to spring, his daughter asked him several times: Why didn't Dad go to work yet?

Robin is the captain of a small and medium -sized joint airline. He has 15 years of flying experience. The epidemic has earned more than one million yuan the previous year. In fact, as early as April, Robin, who had rest at home for one and a half months, received a work arrangement, but he was soon notified and the flight was canceled. Subsequently, the class was canceled for 5 consecutive weeks, and the company did not inform the reason. "Everyone knows, it must be because of the epidemic," Robin said helplessly.

Public data shows that in April 2022, the number of domestic routes of Air China, Southern Airlines, and Oriental Airlines decreased by 41.3 %, 65.6 %, and 45.6 % from the previous month. Compared with the epidemic, based on the same period of 2019, Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern Airlines have fallen by 82.3 %, 90.3 %, and 78.2 %, respectively. The epidemic exudes more, causing the demand for aviation to bottom out again.

"Unlike the previous two years, the epidemic in the first half of this year appeared in important node cities, which caused a great impact on domestic and international routes." Li Xiaojin, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of the University of China and Director of the Institute of Aviation Economics News Weekly analysis. In February, the epidemic occurred in Shenzhen, the epidemic occurred in Guangzhou and Shanghai in March, and a new round of Omikon epidemic outbreak in Beijing in April. Before the epidemic, the throughput of passengers at the Capital Airport alone had more than 100 million passengers. Passengers at the three major cities in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou accounted for more than 1/5 of the total number of domestic.

The outbreak and prevention and control of the epidemic suppress the demand and supply of civil aviation travel. Passengers are worried that they are infected and dare not go away. The original disclosure was changed to home lines. Airlines canceled flights in a large area to cooperate with epidemic prevention.

The most intuitive manifestation of the industry's cold winter in each practitioner is "the wallet is empty." The most important income composition of pilots and flight attendants is hours. The more flight time, the higher the income. For more than two years, Robin's average annual flight time is only about 400 hours, less than half before the epidemic, and the income is reduced to 40 %. The passenger flight is canceled. The captain can change the flying machine. A large number of flight attendants did not work. They could only be at home and receive a basic salary of two or three thousand yuan per month.

The annual salary of the captain is extremely common before the epidemic. Robin, who settle in the second -tier cities, is now repaying the mortgage and car loan every month. Five or six,000 yuan, survived clothes and shrinking food. The domestic flight license has strict requirements for the driver's training volume. For example, each pilot must have three take -off and landing exercises within 90 days. Under normal circumstances, the amount of training at this degree is easy to achieve, but after the epidemic, many people cannot fly like Robin for three consecutive months. The company must spend higher training costs to meet the requirements of flight safety. High management costs.

In addition to the epidemic, the aviation industry is also facing the dual pressure of high oil prices and depreciation of the RMB. The cost of oil at the cost of the airline is always at a high level. In May, the domestic aviation oil export price was 7,859 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 % year -on -year. Under the background of the Russian and Ukraine crisis, oil prices were always high. Since the second quarter, the cumulative depreciation of the renminbi has depreciated by about 5 %, and the exchange loss of the airline will further expand.

The parking fee, take -off and landing fee, maintenance costs, and fixed expenditure depreciation and labor costs. Regardless of whether they are grounded or performed, airlines are facing high costs. According to the "Bianbian" strategy, only when the fare income brought by the marginal flight can cover or exceed the cost of the flight flight, the flight will be selected, otherwise the flight will be canceled. During the trough of the industry, each airline company is living carefully.

As a representative of the asset industry, another major feature of civil aviation is a high debt rate. From 2014 to 2019, the asset -liability ratio of Sanda Airlines was above 50 %. Galaxy Securities pointed out that the epidemic has repeatedly led to the tight cash flow of airline companies. A number of aircraft companies relieve cash pressure by issuing ultra -short -term financing vouchers, but this increases liabilities and further increases the liability ratio.

China ’s first low -cost airlines Spring and Autumn Airlines. As the main base of the airline is in Shanghai, it has been hit by the Shanghai this round of the epidemic. Spring and Autumn Airlines realized operating income of 10.858 billion yuan in 2021, which was frequently out of the epidemic, and a net profit of 39.119 million yuan in mother -in -law, a year -on -year losses. However, public data shows that although the transportation power of Spring and Autumn Airlines in June and the number of passenger turnover increased from the previous month, it still decreased by 63.3 % and 71.4 % last year, less than half of 2019.

As the epidemic in Shanghai, Beijing and other places gradually relieved, the number of flights of various airlines resumed in May and continued to rise in June. In early June, there were about 6,100 flights on the daily flight of civil aviation, an increase of 37 % from the previous two weeks. However, the overall airline company is still in a low price operation. Since 2022, the average civil aviation fare is only 574 yuan, a decrease of 23 % from the same period in 2019.

However, Shanghai, which announced the resumption of work on June 1, has not yet left the trough of civil aviation. According to flight housekeeper data, on June 26, the number of flights at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport and Pudong Airport was only 106 and 83, respectively. As of 8:00 on June 27, Shanghai Pudong Airport has canceled 1100 flights, and Shanghai Hongqiao Airport canceled 760 flights, with a cancellation rate of nearly 90 %.

"The epidemic prevention policy must be cooperated, and we have no better way to solve the current dilemma. We can only wait, wait for the epidemic situation to recover." Say.

"Passenger Shock" makes up for a little bit to make up for

By the last day of June, the pilot Pan Xiaoliang just lived in the isolated hotel for a month, half less than the total time after the flying was separated.

According to the company's requirements, every time the international flight was completed, the crew members returned to China for 14 days. The first week is purely isolated, and the flight can be continued from the second week. However, after the last class, at least one week is needed to unblock it. Flying on the European route, the crew can not end the aircraft, enter the country, unload, load, and add fuel to the aircraft, and fly back to China directly. However, the flying US route is required to register in the country, which means that they are separated after returning to China, plus 14 days. Combined with different epidemic prevention requirements, the longest isolation time is finally calculated.

A person is closed for too long in a narrow room, and negative emotions will gradually dominate. One of Pan Xiaoliang's colleagues "collapsed" in isolation. When leaving the hotel, the lunch box and garbage were covered with the whole house. "The emotions of the crew should be paid attention to, saying serious points, which is also a security issue." Pan Xiaoliang said.

Pan Xiaoliang has worked in a state -owned civil aviation company for more than ten years. After the outbreak in 2020, he was quickly transferred to the international freight department from the international passenger transport. "The company arranges directly and does not solicit personal opinions. To be honest, it is good to work in the past two years." Pan Xiaoliang accepted the work change calmly, the international flight flight time was long, plus the freight machine subsidy, the epidemic was more than two years, and his epidemic was more than two years. The income does not increase.

The "Five One" policy was released at the end of March 2020. In order to effectively block the input of an epidemic overseas, a airline company only retained one route in a country and performed at most one class a week. The number of international flights of passenger transport decreases sharply, and freight is less affected. In order to improve the utilization of aircraft and revenue, some airlines increased their freight investment and expanded passenger aircraft personnel to freight aircraft fleets. In April 2020, Robin completed the last passenger plane, "retrograde" under the epidemic, returned to the Chinese who stayed overseas from London, and began to fly "customer -changing goods" in May.

According to the "Bulletin of the Development of the Civil Aviation Industry in 2021" issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in 2021, the entire industry completed 7.318 million tons of goods and transportation, an increase of 8.2 % over the previous year. Domestic and international routes have increased from the previous year, of which the increase in freight volume of international routes has increased significantly, reaching 19.6 %. "From a financial point of view, the rise in freight volume has little effect on the loss of passenger transportation." Li Xiaojin analyzed that although the freight profit has doubled in the epidemic, the freight operation revenue accounts for relatively low. It is still the main source of revenue of various airlines. Taking Eastern Airlines, which is relatively obvious in revenue structure, the proportion of freight revenue increased from 3.17 % in 2019 to 11.37 % in the first quarter of 2021. Even if passenger revenue declined, it still accounted for 82.01 % of the total revenue.

The passenger flow has declined and the growth of goods has increased. Compared with the airport, the loss of each airport is often ignored. As one of the most important aviation hubs in China, Shanghai Pudong Airport's business volume decreased straight. The airport recorded 42,600 passenger throughput in April, a year -on -year decrease of 98.93 %; the aircraft took off and landing 3520, a year -on -year decrease of 90.67 %; the volume of cargo and postal throughput; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume; cargo and postal throughput volume. 11,600 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 70.04 %. In April this year, Shanghai Hongqiao Airport entered and exited Hong Kong flights every day even less than 10 times.

As a means of survival, the non -Air Airlines business has become an important source of revenue for each airport to create income under the epidemic. In 2021, Zunyi Airport in Guizhou passed non -airlines such as the new parking lot charging pile business, cooperative operation machine repair business, and cooperating with large customers to sell special agricultural products, which contributed 390 million yuan. Fuyang Airport in Anhui co -ordination development airport advertisements, terminal shops, parking lots, gas stations, real estate in the city, non -flight revenue in 2021 increased by 347 % year -on -year, accounting for nearly 1/3 of the total revenue.

However, Li Xiaojin also pointed out that the core elements of airport revenue are still passengers and goods. There are no passenger and freight, and the main business and non -airline business can only face losses.

Live by "control cost"

Since the emergence of the epidemic, Cao Zhigui, the marketing director of Jiuyuan Aviation Co., Ltd., has another new content of daily work -focusing on the prevention and control of the epidemic in various places. In these changes, there may be a new incremental market hidden.

On June 10, the first Guangzhou -trip Toron route was successful in the first Guangzhou round -trip route. In the upcoming summer, ninth will continue to open routes in Altay, Yining, Shihezi and other places, and encrypted to Urumqi routes to further enrich its route network layout in Xinjiang.

"Under the impact of the epidemic, the stock market competition is more fierce. Instead of fighting a price war, we will consider making more incremental markets. The policy launched by Xinjiang this year is very suitable for business development." Cao Zhigui told China News Weekly, early June, in early June, Xinjiang has introduced a policy of stable economic growth. The purpose of most passengers in Xinjiang routes is to travel. Nine -dollar Airlines cooperates in depth with local strong hostels to bundle aviation products with travel products.

The Guangzhou-Turpan route has been opened for more than two weeks, and the guest rate has reached about 90 %. Cao Zhigui said that in 2021, the company added more than 20 routes. For example, the Wuhan-Tangshan Line opened at the end of March last year. There was no aviation enterprise flying before. Wuhan was the core city of Central China. Tangshan GDP ranked first in Hebei. With a considerable population and economic volume, the visitor rate of this new route continues to stabilize about 85 %.

Nine yuan aviation was approved by the Civil Aviation Administration in 2014, and officially settled on December 2. The company is invested and established by Jixiang Airlines Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shanghai Junyao (Group) Co., Ltd., and its main land is located in Guangzhou. As the first low -cost model in Central and South China, it became one of the 35 civil aviation companies that achieved profitable civil aviation companies in 2021, which repeatedly fluctuated the epidemic and lost 84.3 billion yuan throughout the year.

After inspecting these 35 companies, the Civil Aviation Administration's comprehensive department's research team summarized. Although these enterprises have different scale and nature, the direct reasons for profit are different, but their business management concepts and business management mechanisms show high degree of high degree flexibility. In addition, enterprises are more accurate in the specific measures and practices of open source and cost reduction and efficiency.

Why do low -cost aviation and small and medium -sized airlines have better performance in the epidemic? Li Xiaojin analyzed that the market entities of low -cost aviation and branch airlines are in small and medium cities, and they are less affected by the epidemic. Compared with large airlines with high debt ratios, small and medium -sized enterprises can respond more flexibly market changes, and supporting line aviation enjoys government subsidies, which is conducive to further reduction and efficiency.

"Ensure that the entire company can implement the low -cost aviation concept, especially to improve the efficiency of decision -making, and respond to market changes in a timely manner." Cao Zhigui introduced that in 2021 to deal with the emergency situation of Guangzhou, the company decided to put the capacity outside Xi'an and Wuhan, Wuhan, Wuhan, Wuhan In Wuxi and other places, the company's flight, transportation control, machinery, cabin, ground protection and other departments need to be demonstrated and evaluated, but the entire decision -making process is less than three days. Eventually reflected in operating data, with the human -computer ratio lower than the industry average, it achieved the operating performance higher than the industry average. In 2021, the aircraft passenger rate was 82.07 %, and the positive rate was 89.98 %.

Not long ago, Jixiang Airlines issued the "Announcement on Providing Financial Funding to the Company's Holding subsidiary Jiuyuan Airlines Co., Ltd.", which intends to add no more than 420 million yuan to Nine yuan airlines (not more than 1 billion yuan in total of 1 billion yuan in total. Financial funding of RMB). In addition to this financial funding, in the past 12 months, Jixiang Airlines has provided 580 million yuan in financial funding to Nine yuan. The announcement also disclosed that the latest asset -liability ratio of Nine yuan airlines exceeded 70 %. "The industry has continued to lose losses, and the debt ratio of airline companies has generally risen. 70 % of them are really not high in the industry." Cao Zhigui said. In the online forum in early February, he called on the Civil Aviation Administration to support companies with health operations, strong governance, and cost advantages in related policies such as aircraft introduction.

Uncertain "minimum guarantee"

On May 25, the Civil Aviation Administration, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Fiscal Subsidies for the Implementation of Domestic passenger flights", which is commonly known as a "minimum insurance policy" in the industry. From May 21st to July 20th, the average daily domestic passenger flight volume does not exceed 4,500 classes during the week, that is, the fiscal subsidy mechanism is launched on all eligible flights. Conditions include the average number of flights during the week of the minimum flight flight, and the average passenger rate of each segment per week is not more than 75 %. The actual income of the flight cannot cover the cost of change. According to Xiong Yanhua, the director of the Finance Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, the subsidy limit was set to 24,000 yuan per hour.

"24,000 yuan per hour is enough to make up for the cost of the flight, that is, even if a passenger does not have, it will not lose money." Li Xiaojin analyzed that the cost of flight changes included fuel consumption, personnel salary, some airports and empty pipe tolls, and tickets. Sales costs, etc. According to the data of China Civil Aviation University's research team, according to data in 2019, the change is about 24,000 yuan/hour, accounting for half of the total cost of passenger flights. The more passengers, the more income from the airline, and the necessity of subsidies.

Benefiting from multiple rounds of bailout policies, the vitality of the civil aviation market is recovering. According to the Civil Aviation Administration, from June 24th to 26th, the number of civil aviation single -day flights exceeded 10,000 classes for three consecutive days, reaching 10609, Class 10083, and Class 10198, respectively, and the overall recovered to about 60 % before the epidemic. The number of passengers in single -day passengers reached 896,000, 830,000, and 851,000, and was restored to about 49.4 % before the epidemic.

The number of domestic passenger flights exceeded the bottom line of subsidy of 4,500 classes on June 4, which means that the implementation conditions for policy subsidies may fail. As early as May 30, the Civil Aviation Authority had issued a notice announced that the implementation of policy subsidies was suspended from June 4th to 10th. However, whether the subsidy policy will be canceled in this regard, the Civil Aviation Administration has not publicly stated.

The airline is also exploring more possibilities. The air -to -air companies in the tranquility began to rescue themselves, and the live promotion was not a new way. Starting from the emergence of the epidemic in 2020, the chairman of Spring and Autumn Airlines sold air tickets and sold fuselage advertisements. On May 16 this year, Hainan Airlines flight attendants brought goods overnight in the live broadcast room. With the advantages of Hainan's outlying islands, the advantages of Hainan's outlying islands, big -name skin care products and makeup sales were hot, and 1.53 million yuan was sold in a single game, setting the latest sales record since HNA live broadcast. Many airlines started the catering sideline.四川航空推出了“今日下单、明日送达”的火锅包邮外送服务；厦航早在两年前就推出了团餐外送服务，利用闲置人力、设备，为各种机关、团体、 Corporates such as enterprises, public institutions, and other collective meals.

At the beginning of 2022, there was prediction in the civil aviation industry that the development trend of the civil aviation industry in 2022 was "low -low and high". It is expected that passenger transport volume throughout the year can return to at least 75 % before the epidemic. However, in the first half of the year, the difficulty of resistance such as the epidemic in the first half of the year suddenly increased the difficulty of achieving this goal of the civil aviation industry.

For the civil aviation industry at this time, the signal of gradually increasing international flights is a good news. Liang Nan, director of the Department of Transportation of the China Civil Aviation Administration, said at a press conference held at the Civil Aviation Administration on June 17 that under the overall planning of the China State Council's joint defense and control mechanism, the Civil Aviation Administration is discussing with some countries to gradually and steadily increasing regular international international internationally internationally. Passenger flights to meet personnel needs.

"First Finance" reported that China Airlines, Air China and HNA, which are currently allocated by the Civil Aviation Administration's new international flights. China Southern Airlines won the new flight quota to Jilgistein, Tajikistan and Turkey. The flights to the first two countries were broken after the epidemic. Added work. Air China has obtained flights to and from Belarus and the UAE. The flights of these two countries were reduced in September 2021. HNA recently announced that it restarted the Chongqing-Roman route on June 23. This route is a route that has been broken after the epidemic.

Earlier, the executive meeting of the State Council stabilized the "33 Articles" of the economy to stabilize the economy, "In terms of aviation," increased 150 billion yuan of civil aviation emergency loans and supported the issuance of 200 billion yuan of bonds. "Industry insiders expect that the Civil Aviation Administration is preparing to increase more international flights and implement the decision at the executive meeting of the State Council.

According to statistics from the results of international routes disclosed on the official website of the Civil Aviation Administration, the major domestic airlines have applied for overtime in June and July, and there are as many as 41 international routes for charter machines, while the number in the first two months is only 38 and 12. At present, the imbalance of supply and demand of international flights has led to high fares. Flying a considerable profit can bring obvious effects on the improvement of airline operations. The industry generally believes that the orderly opening of international flights is an important measure to promote the opening of logistics and transportation under the premise of ensuring safety. Despite the slow recovery, the purchase order of the "Three Airlines" has also released a clear signal of optimism in the future. "Based on the confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve the capacity of the fleet in advance." China China Eastern Airlines stated in the announcement for the reasons for introducing aircraft this time. From the perspective of specific capacity increases, Air China is expected to increase capacity by about 10.4 %, and Southern Airlines expects capacity to increase by about 13.0 %.

"People want to travel. Once travel restrictions are canceled, people will return to the blue sky." Welry Walsh, chairman of the International Air Transport Association (IATA, referred to as "International Airlines Association"). However, he also pointed out that the Asia -Pacific region is the slowest in recovery in major regions. In 2022, the passenger volume to and from the Asia -Pacific region and region will only return to 68 % of the level of 2019, and it takes more time to fully recover.

(At the request of the interviewees, Robin and Pan Xiaoliang in the text are a pseudonym)

Send 2022.7.11 Total Issue 1051 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine Title: Behind Super List: How far is civil aviation from recovery?

Reporter: Li Mingzi ([email protected])

Edit: Min Jie

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