A number of Federal Reserve officials released the eagle signal in July and continued to raise interest rates 75 basis points

Reporter Liu Qi

Learr reporter Han Yu

On July 6, local time, the Fed will announce the minutes of the June meeting. At the June interest interest interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell claims at a press conference after the meeting that the interest rate hike will not become the norm. Therefore, the market generally locks the minutes of the meeting, hoping to find more clues from it.

In response to the subsequent interest rate hike path, many Federal Reserve officials have recently published a "eagle" remarks, supporting the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates in July to 75 basis points to curb the inflation of US highs. Among them, Chicago Fed Chairman Evans, Minnespolis Fed Chairman Kashkari, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mest, San Francisco Fed Chairman Dali, New York Fed Chairman Williams, and several Federal Reserve Directors.

It is worth noting that some Federal officials who were originally "pigeons" have gradually shifted to aggressive attitudes to interest rate hikes. For example, Dali Chairman of the San Francisco Fed of San Francisco, which has always been regarded as the "pigeon", said on July 1 that the federal fund interest rate is expected to be increased to 3.1%by the end of this year. At the same time, she also claimed to support 75 basis points in July. And Dali's previous discussion has always been "too fast interest rate hikes may damage the economy." In May, Dali still stated that the rating of 75 base points was not her main consideration.

On June 28, the New York Fed Chairman Williams, who permanently owned the Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC), said in an interview with the media that supporting the Federal Reserve to increase the federal benchmark interest rate to 3%to 3.5%at the end of 2022. The interest rate hike path in 2023 depends on the data. He also said that the market forecast raised interest rates to 3.5%to 4%at the end of the year, and now it seems "very reasonable." Regarding the July rate hike resolution, Williams said that the Fed will be mainly selected at 50 basis points and 75 basis points.

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans also said before that unless inflation data has improved, it will support the Federal Reserve to continue to raise great interest rates in July. He believes that the first task of the Federal Reserve is to cool down the price of high fever.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Mest also has the same attitude. If the economic situation has not improved at the Fed in July FOMC meeting in July, she will support 75 basis points in interest rate hikes. She said that the current inflation data cannot support the Federal Reserve's return to 50 basis points in interest rate hikes. She personally estimates that the U.S. unemployment rate will climb to 4.25%in the next two years.

When Powell participated in the annual forum held by the European Bank of China on June 29, it also emphasized that the primary task of the Federal Reserve is to reduce the inflation rate to 2%and control the current "out of control" of the United States. Although he also admits that interest rate hikes are risk of "overwhelming", it cannot be compared with the consequences of the loss of prices.

截至当地时间7月5日凌晨3点，《证券日报》记者根据芝商所的FedWatch工具实时测算，7月份美联储加息75个基点（从当前的1.5%至1.75%利率区间提高至2.25%至The probability of 2.50%) is as high as 95.1%, and the probability of interest rate hikes is only 4.9%. This tool calculates the price of the federal fund futures for 30 days of the 30 -day listing of the federal fund futures. At the same time, it is assuming that when the Federal Reserve raises interest rate reaction.

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