The price of pork soared, and the Development and Reform Commission shot again: Study the central reserves!Will the price increase in the future?

After experiencing the low position in the first half of the year, pork prices ushered in a rebound. Data released by the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on July 4 showed that as of 14:00 on the 4th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 25.74 yuan/kg, and the price of pork was in a new round of upward cycle.

In response to the stable price of the pig market, the Development and Reform Commission moves frequently. After the fixed -tone pig price has not continued to rise sharply, five days, the Development and Reform Commission reported that it would study the launch of the central pork reserves.

In the market, the concept of pork -related concepts has cool down today. The Wind pig industry index once fell more than 2%. In terms of leading stocks, Muyuan shares once turned down. Wen's shares and Xinxin once fell more than 2%.

Pig prices and pigs "fly"

Recently, pig prices across the country have continued to rise rapidly. On July 4, the main contract of pig futures rose daily, and there were as many as 15 stocks in the A -share pork sector.

A reporter from the Beijing Commercial Daily found that the price of a visit to Chaoyang District found that the price of pork rose significantly compared to the previous months. The staff told reporters that taking the same type of fine pork belly as an example, the price per catty in April was about 20 yuan, and the price on July 4 was 24.8 yuan per catty, which rose about 5 yuan. The prices of types of pork have also risen differently.

In recent months, the pig market has continued to rebound higher. As of 14:00 on the 4th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 25.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.8%over Friday.

The National Bureau of Statistics also released the change of pig prices. On July 4, the National Bureau of Statistics released the market price of important production data in the field of circulation in late June: the monitoring of the market prices of 50 major types of important production materials in the national circulation fields showed that compared with mid -June this year, compared with mid -June this year The prices of 6 products rose, 40 decreased, and 4 were flat. Among them, the price of pigs (three yuan) was 18.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.6%over the previous period. In late March, the price of pigs was 11.9 yuan per kilogram.

Wang Zuli, the chief expert of the surveillance and early warning of the pig industry of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that the rise in pork prices is affected by multiple factors. As the "pig cycle" ended around March and April April, the price of pork is currently in a new round of upward cycle, and the rise in pork prices meet market expectations.

The rise in pig prices is related to market emotions?

However, the recent increase in pork prices is too fast, not only affected by the "pig cycle", but also other influencing factors, such as market emotions.

In response to the recent rapid rise in pig prices, on the 4th, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold meetings to analyze the supply and demand and price of pig markets, study and judge the future price trend, study and do a good job of doing a good job The pig market guarantees stable prices.

According to the analysis of the relevant parties, the important reason for the recent rapid rise in domestic pigs is that the market has irrational pressure fences and secondary fattening. Some media, especially self -media, fabricate and spread the price increase information, rendered the price increase atmosphere. In the short term, in the short term The market has exacerbated the market for sale; the current pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, and the consumption is not strong, and the price of pigs does not have the foundation of continuously rising; blind barriers and secondary fertilizers may lead to the fate of concentrated columns in the later period, and the price fell rapidly again, resulting in market price The ups and downs are not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Guangzhou Futures also analyzed that the supply of pig companies in the northern region was reduced and the bullish mood was high. Due to the recent rainfall, the difficulty of transportation has increased, which has continued to rise in pig prices.

The Development and Reform Commission takes a shot to prevent sharp fluctuations in pig prices

At the meeting on the 4th, the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the country has always paid close attention to changes in the market price of raw pork pork, strives to prevent sharp fluctuations in prices, and maintain the smooth operation of the market. , Do not blindly press the fence, remind companies not to hoard the accumulation of strangeness, coax the price, and do not collude the price increase; it is clearly stated that effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment will be taken to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. Occupation of illegal acts such as spreading price increases and raising prices, maintaining normal market order, and promoting the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Representatives participating in the pig market confession and price conference unanimously stated that it will strengthen the industry's self -discipline, take the lead in doing a good job of stabilizing the price of the pig market, and maintain the rhythm of the normal outlets and not to stock up the fence. At the same time , Timely putting pork reserves to "cool down" the market, and strengthen market supervision, especially to severely crack down on deliberately rendering the atmosphere of price increase and create panic.

On July 5th, the Development and Reform Commission showed that in response to irrational behaviors such as blindly selling the pig market in the near future, it was studying the launch of the launch of the central pork reserves, and guided the localities to jointly put into timely to put the reserves to form a joint force to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

Macroeconomic scientist Ren Zeping wrote that the price of pork is expected to rise moderately in the future, but does not have the conditions to rise rapidly. The main due to the low degree of production capacity and the relatively high historical level. The degree of production capacity.

Edit 丨 Zhang Yajing Comprehensive Beijing Commercial Daily (Reporter Tao Feng Intern Reporter Yuan Zerui), Securities Times Pictures 丨 Visual China, Yitu.com, Beijing Commercial Daily, WeChat screenshot, Wind screenshot

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