The price of pigs is too fast, and the Development and Reform Commission is alert to the "seesaw" market

The Development and Reform Commission clearly stated that it will take adjustment measures in a timely manner to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively, and will strengthen market supervision with relevant departments, severely punish illegal acts such as scattered price increase information, and coaxing prices.

Author: Chen Shan

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

One || This wave of pig prices in stock fully reflects the expectations of the new cycle. At the same time, the number of large groups has also declined to a certain extent in the near future. In addition, the help of various media emotions. This round of this round. The trend of the upward cycle is significantly exceeded the previous market expectations.

发 || The National Development and Reform Commission issued an article saying, "In response to the recent irrational behavior such as blindly selling the pig market, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the launch of the central pork reserves, and instructing the localities to jointly put the reserves in a timely manner to form a joint control force to prevent prevention, prevent The price of pigs rose too quickly. "

Three || Founder Securities Research reports that due to the recently -sold and secondary fattening behavior of breeding households, the production of pigs' production capacity may have the pressure of concentratedly released, and pig prices have a risk of callback.

The price of pigs is staged a "take -off" scene. The Development and Reform Commission "shot". How high the pigs can the pigs fly on the wind?

At 14:00 on July 5th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 26.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.7%over the previous day. The day ago (July 4), the interaction of pig stocks rose, and pig futures rose daily limit. Standing on a new high in the past year; in the A -share market, Muyuan shares, new hope, Zhengbang Technology, Aonon biology, Tiankang creature, etc. More than 10 shares have risen to seal.

Recently, the price of pigs has been in high, and its rise has risen rapidly. Based on the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market, pig prices have risen by more than 40%since April 15. Another data shows that the price of pigs in some areas has appeared "soaring". For example, since April this year, the price of pigs in Henan has risen from 12.36 yuan/kg on April 1 to 23.98 yuan/kg on July 5th, an increase of 94% Essence

The price of pigs has soared sharply or there are other strangeness, and the Development and Reform Commission has shot!

On July 4, the Development and Reform Commission held a meeting on the recent rise of pig prices and organized industry associations, some breeding companies and slaughtering enterprises. It is reported that the participants include the China Animal Husbandry Association, Meat Association, Muyuan, Wen's, New Hope, Zhengbang, Tianbang, Dabei, COFCO, Shuanghui, Yurun, Golden Gong and other companies.

The meeting pointed out that pig prices do not have the basis of continued to rise sharply. At the same time, the Development and Reform Commission clearly stated that it will take adjustment measures in a timely manner to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively, and will strengthen market supervision in conjunction with relevant departments, severely punish illegal acts such as spreading price increase information and raising prices.

Why the pig price has soared

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at 14:00 on July 5th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 26.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.7%over the previous day, and only 3 working days, and the price of pigs rose by nearly 9%. From the perspective of extending, the average price of pork has increased by more than 40%since April 15.

The soaring spot price also supports futures prices. On July 4, the main force of pig futures reached the daily limit in the contract of 2209, up to 22755 yuan/ton, and the price has been high since June 2021. This year, it has increased by 30%.

Recently, why did the price of pigs rise rapidly? Liu Yingjie, the director of R & D of Xinhu Futures Agricultural Products, told reporters that the rise of this wave of pig prices fully reflects the expectations of the new cycle. In the upper promotion, the trend of this round of the routine cycle significantly exceeded the previous market expectations.

Judging from the sales data of pigs disclosed in the head breeding enterprises in May, most of the monthly sales of pig companies declined from the previous month. The sales of Makiyuan, Wen's shares, and new hope in May have declined more than 7%month -on -month, while Zhengbang Technology and Dabei Nong have declined more than 18%month -on -month.

"The essence of its essence is that in 2021, the continuous exfoliation of sow storage columns, which leads to a decline in the amount of pigs in 2022. In addition, the emotions of various breeding companies at the beginning of the year are sorrowful. . But as the amount of the column gradually decreases, the impact of the decrease in supply has gradually appeared, and the spot price has opened up. "Hou Xiaorui, an analyst of Yide Futures Fresh Division, also said.

Development and Reform Commission

In response to the recent rapid rise in the price of pigs, on July 4, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold a conference for stable prices in the pig market for saving stable prices.

At the meeting, the relevant parties analyzed that the recent rapid rise in domestic pig prices is that the important reason is that the market has irrational pressure fences and secondary fertilizer. In the short term, the market has been exacerbated to sell emotions. At present, the production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant, and the consumption is not strong. The price of pigs does not have the foundation of continuously rising; blind fences and secondary fertilizers may lead to the concentrated columns in the later period and the price fell rapidly again, so as The market price is up and down, but it is not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Participating representatives unanimously stated that it will strengthen the industry's self -discipline, take the lead in doing a good job of the pig market to protect the price of stable prices, and maintain the rhythm of the normal fence and not to stock up. "Cooling" and strengthening market supervision, especially the behavior of deliberately cracking down on the atmosphere of price increases and creating panic emotions. At the meeting, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission requested large -scale breeding enterprises to take the lead in maintaining the rhythm of normal columns, taking out the fence to heavy fertilizer and pigs, and not blindly pressing the fence. Effective measures such as adjustment, supply and demand adjustment, etc., prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively, and strengthen market supervision in conjunction with relevant departments, severely punish illegal acts such as pumping and spreading price increase information, raising prices, etc., maintain normal market order, and promote the long -term healthy development of the industry.

The next day (July 5), the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document saying "In response to the recent irrational behavior such as blind selling fences in the pig market, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the launch of the central pork reserves and guided the localities to jointly put into time the reserves of reserves in a timely manner. , Form the joint force to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. "

On the same day, the Development and Reform Commission again issued a statement that recently, the Price Department of the Development and Reform Commission held a symposium and a large merchant to study and strengthen communication and cooperation, and work together to ensure that the pig market guarantees stability and other prices. The meeting agreed that the Development and Reform Commission cooperated closely with the large businessmen, strengthened the supervision of the spot futures market, promptly investigated abnormal transactions, strengthened penetrating supervision, and severely crack down on illegal acts such as fabricating price increase information, hoarding, raising prices, and malicious capital speculation. , Effectively ensure the smooth operation of the pig market.

Be wary of "seesaw" market

Farmers are selling and secondary fertilizer to help the price of pigs rising too quickly in the short term. What pressure does the subsequent pig price face? How much is the room for rising?

Looking forward to the market outlook, Founder Securities Research reports that due to the recently sold and secondary fattening behavior of breeding households, the production capacity of pigs has a short -term or centralized release pressure, and pig prices have a risk of callback. However, in general, consumption in the second half of the year is relatively strong, and the early production capacity is depleted or sufficient. Even the market for the market for short -term callbacks will still not change the trend of shocks and continues to recommend the pig breeding industry.

Hou Xiaorui believes that in the cycle of the decreased pig out of pigs caused by the reduction of production in China, the possibility of a large increase in the number of pigs in the short term has not seen the increase in the number of pigs. The amplitude.

"After the emotions of the farming side have improved significantly, there will be a supplementary fence of the pressure fence, the secondary fertilizer and dual and the three -yuan sow, which will lead to the further shortage of the short -term pig supply. The rise of the surface, and this behavior will make the supply end pressure in the next few months, showing the seesaw market in the near -distance month. "She believes that subsequent attention should be paid to the changes in the weight of the pigs out of the pigs out of the pig. In addition, the recent supplementary column situation will determine the trend of the long month.

Liu Yingjie also said that due to the rise in pig prices, coupled with the recent significant weakening of the prices of feed raw materials such as corn, soybean meal, pig breeding profits have improved significantly, which may lead to the acceleration of secondary fattening power. The market may cause pressure.

However, Liu Yingjie believes that the relevant departments have paid attention to the significant fluctuations in the pig market, held a special conference for the stability of the pig market for the stability of the pig market, studying the launch of pork reserves, and working with the exchanges to do a good job of stabilizing the price of the pig market. The expected policy may cause pig prices to cool in the short term and return to normal operation tracks.

From the perspective of Shi Baofeng, a professor at the School of Economics Management of the Northwest University of Agriculture and Forestry, my country's pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, and the industry has gradually got rid of the adverse effects brought by the downturn in the "pig cycle" since last year, and entered the long -term healthy development track. In particular, the country's multiple rounds of storage operations since last year have effectively hedled the impact of the lower price at that time, and laid a solid foundation for the adjustment of the price change and supply and demand adjustment in the future.

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