Fengkou Think Tank | Severe punishment to make up the price!What signals are released by the Development and Reform Commission to suppress the price of pigs?

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

Aiming at the recent irrational rising of pig prices, the National Development and Reform Commission has shot!

According to the National Development and Reform Commission on July 5, in response to the recent irrational behavior such as blind selling fences in the pig market, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission was studying the launch of the central pork reserves and guided the local area to jointly launch the reserves to form a joint force. Preventing the price of pigs to rise too fast.

On July 4th, in response to the recent rapid rise in the price of pigs, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold a meeting to analyze the supply and demand and price of pig markets, study the future price trend, study research, research Do a good job in the pig market for stable prices.

Several experts interviewed by Fengkou Finance said that the recent rapid rise in pig prices is mainly disturbed by emotional and abnormal factors such as emotional and abnormal factors. It is not the price level determined by the normal market supply and demand relationship. The price is reasonable to rise. The increase in pork prices in the short term will increase the cost of consumption expenditure and promote the higher prices of consumers, which may constitute a certain constitutional constitutional constitutional constitution.

Pig price rising range limited

Since this year, under the adjustment of national pig production capacity, my country's pig market has gradually resumed steadily, and the price of pigs has rebounded from a previous low. However, the recent increase has been a bit fast.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on July 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 25.74 yuan per kilogram. According to the data of Sou Zhu.com, the average price of lean meat pigs on July 4 was 21.69 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 1.18 yuan from the previous trading day. Compared with 14.7 yuan per kilogram of the same period last year, it rose 6.99 yuan, an increase of 47.55%year -on -year. The prices of Beijing, Tianjin, Ningxia, Fujian, Hunan, Henan and other provinces have reached or exceeded 22 yuan.

On July 4, the A -share pork concept sector led A shares, up 6.56%; more than 10 pig concept stocks including head companies including Muyuan shares rose daily limit.

In addition, on July 4, pig futures in the domestic futures market rose first. The main contract was up to 22,755 yuan per ton on the day of the September futures, an increase of 8%on the same day, a new high of the year. Compared with the year of March 31, the lowest point of 16,080 yuan per ton was over 41.5%, which was 79%increased from the lowest point of 1,2650 yuan since the listing on September 30, 2021.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the number of sows across the country reached the peak level in recent years in June 2021 to 45.64 million heads. Since then, production capacity has fallen all the way, and it has fallen to 41.77 million heads in April 2022. This is also the market for sale. One of the reasons — It is expected that the production capacity will be degraded to the bottom, and the price of pigs will rise.

However, in fact, in May, the number of sows in the country had increased to 41.92 million compared with April, which was higher than the upper limit of the 37 million-41 million heads that were regulated by the state. In other words, there is still the possibility of further exfoliating in the production capacity of the pig breeding industry, and the increase in pig prices is limited.

Industry giant Muyuan shares also stated in the interactive platform on the 4th that it is expected that the company's 2022-year-old pig out of the column is 50 million-56 million heads, and the number of raw pigs in the whole year last year was 40.26 million.

Xinhua News Agency information picture

Lifting and reasonable rising space

According to the National Development and Reform Commission website on July 4, in response to the recent rapid rise in the price of pigs, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold a meeting to analyze the supply and demand and price situation of pig markets, and research and judge. In the later period of price trend, study the work of the pig market for stable and stable prices. According to the analysis of the relevant parties, the important reason for the recent rapid rise in domestic pigs is that the market has irrational pressure fences and secondary fattening. Some media, especially self -media, fabricate and spread the price increase information, rendered the price increase atmosphere. In the short term, in the short term The market has exacerbated the market for sale; the current pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, and the consumption is not strong, and the price of pigs does not have the foundation of continuously rising; blind barriers and secondary fertilizers may lead to the fate of concentrated columns in the later period, and the price fell rapidly again, resulting in market price The ups and downs are not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Participating representatives unanimously stated that it will strengthen the industry's self -discipline, take the lead in doing a good job of the pig market to protect the price of stable prices, and maintain the rhythm of the normal fence and not to stock up. "Cooling" and strengthening market supervision, especially the behavior of deliberately cracking down on the atmosphere of price increases and creating panic emotions.

At the meeting, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the state has always paid close attention to changes in the market price of raw pork and pork, strives to prevent sharp fluctuations in prices, and maintain the smooth operation of the market; require large breeding enterprises to take the lead in maintaining the rhythm of normal columns, adopting the trendy columns, and fertilizing pigs. No Blind pressure fences remind companies not to hoard their accumulation of strangeness, coax the prices, and do not collude the price increase; it is clearly stated that effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment will be taken to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. Violations such as price increase information and raising prices, maintaining normal market order, and promoting the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Zhou Maohua, a researcher at the Financial Marketing Department of Everbright Bank, told Fengkou Finance that from the current stage of the pig market environment, the foundation of stable pork prices is solid. First, domestic pig production capacity has returned to perennial level, but demand is still in the recovery stage. At present, the catering industry is still recovering. In the perspective of breeding profits, the current breeding profit has been righteous; the third is that the domestic macro -control is strong and effective, and pay attention to maintaining the normal order of the market. Ding Yujia, a researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said in an interview with the wind and economic interview that the recent rapid rise in pig prices was mainly disturbed by emotional and abnormal factors such as emotions. Guidance may be overdrawn in the future of pig prices reasonably.

Ding Yujia told Fengkou Finance that from the supply side, the pork supply cycle fell at the end of 2021 and is still at a low point; the price of pigs has continued to rise since April, and farmers have a strong bullish mood. , Resulting in a significant decrease in the short -term column. From the perspective of demand, with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, consumption resumes seasonal factors, and rising demand for residents has also pushed pork prices.

Xinhua News Agency information picture

Or bring more challenges to macro policies

Ding Yujia said that the price of pork is an important classification of CPI. CPI fluctuations are directly affected by pig prices fluctuations. High inflation will also suppress consumption, which is not conducive to economic stable growth. At the same time, the rising pig prices will affect the price trend and market supply and demand of livestock, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables, eggs, etc. through alternative effects and complementary effects, and affect the healthy and smooth operation of the market.

Feng Lin, a senior analyst at the Ministry of Eastern Jincheng Research and Development Department, told Fengkou Finance that the Development and Reform Commission was to regulate the price of pigs in order to crack down on irrational behaviors such as blinding fences and malicious hoarding speculation, and released the suppression of pig prices and maintenance of pigs. The signal of the market stable operation is expected to slow down in the later period.

Zhou Maohua told Fengkou Finance that the management department took timely control the price of pork and released a strong "stable" signal to avoid the price of pork from the ups and downs of the pig market. Maintain the normal pig market order and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

"We have a forecast for the second half of this year. The CPI of the whole year is 2.3%, and the PPI of the year is 5.4%." Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that domestic inflation is not a very tight constraint now. Steady growth. If the inflation center is higher than expected in the second half of the year, it will bring more challenges to macro policies. "We hope that the inflation can still exist in the second half of the year, so that our entire fiscal and monetary policy will be more abundant."

Feng Lin also believes that due to a certain rigidity of pork demand, the main impact of the increase in pork prices on the macro economy is that it will promote the overall CPI to accelerate the rise, push the pressure of domestic inflation, and then cause some elbows to the flexible adjustment of the central bank's monetary policy.

There is also Zhou Maohua who holds the same view. He said that the increase in pork prices in the short term will increase the cost of consumption expenditure and promote the higher price of consumers, which may constitute a certain constitutional constitutional constituent in macro -stable growth. The healthy development of enterprises and industries, the main market price fluctuations pass the "chaos" signal to the market, disturbing the balance of supply and demand for the market. In addition, the need to prevent the price increase of pork on other consumer goods prices and the impact on market inflation expectations.

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