ICIS: European Available Industry must be prepared to deal with decline

Recently, ICIS stated that the world, especially the European and American chemical industries, must prepare for economic recession. "Energy and food prices, long -term inflation, global monetary policy tightening, and Russia -Ukraine conflicts have exacerbated the world economy decline." Currently, European and American chemical companies managers are facing the rising economy. Risks are using more conservative business strategies to further slow down large -scale chemical project investment.

Suddenly falling in corporate management

According to the Economist, Global GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.8%of 2021 to 3.1%in 2022, while the US GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 5.7%of 2021 to 2.6%in 2022. The risk of decline in the next 12 months of the United States is 40%to 45%. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US Economic Consulting Bureau recently conducted a survey on 750 global CEOs and executives. More than 60%of people expect their geographical areas to be in the next 12 to 18 months in the next 12 to 18 months. It will fall into a recession, and another 15%says their economy has fallen into decline.

ICIS said that under such low market confidence, in the capital -intensive industries such as chemical industry, most CEOs will not spend billions of dollars on capital projects at the time of economic recession. If the demand is slow as people's general expectations, these companies will be more unwilling to invest on large projects. "If the demand slows down, the manufacturer restricts production, which will reduce the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of most resin and chemicals. Long -term demand expectations and a single factory economy will decline. "Similarly, Swift said that the main acquisition activities of chemical companies can slow down.

Capital expenditure is facing the biggest impact

In Europe, even before the Russian -Ukraine conflict was upgraded, the rise in energy and raw materials had risen in investment prospects. The energy turmoil caused by the upgrade of the Russian -Ukraine conflict has a huge impact on Europe. ICIS expects that Europe will not have new large -scale petrochemical projects.

In June 20 announced on June 20 that, given that Britain is facing unstable and non -competitive energy cost prospects, it will no longer promote the British project of 500 million euros of euro acetate (VAM), which was previously planned. The project was announced in 2017. Instead, the company is conducting a feasibility study of a new acetic acid production device along the Gulf of Mexico, and plans to make a final investment decision by the end of 2023.

In the United States, affected by rising prices, the retail industry is facing high inventory trouble. ICIS said that a large amount of inventory of major retailers such as Wal -Mart, Tajit, and Jiadebao will affect the needs of chemicals and polymers. As consumers reduce expenditure, inventory will maintain a high level.

Jeffris Analyst Lawrence Alexander said in a research report: "For American chemical manufacturers, with the normalization of retail channel inventory, the situation of durable products may become more turbulent, while architectural chemicals may be The demand may slow down at the end of the year. "

Real estate market driving effect is reduced

Under the pressure of soaring interest rates and rising house prices, the US real estate market has encountered difficulties. The US real estate market is a economic fortress and a key terminal market for chemicals. However, the number of houses in the United States in May fell 14.4%compared with April, and the annual operating rate of seasonal adjustment was 1.7 million units, which also decreased by 3.5%compared with the same period last year.

On June 21, Lennar, one of the largest residential builders in the United States, Lennar, executive chairman of the company, said at the second quarter revenue conference: "In the past 6 months, interest rates have doubled, and house prices have accelerated. It has begun to promote many market buyers to re -consider buying real estate. The Fed is determined to curb inflation through interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This has begun to produce expected results, slowing sales of some markets, and delaying price increases from all over the United States. "

ICIS's latest data on the US economic and commercial barometer show that due to the impact of the real estate market, the indicator in June has declined for the fourth consecutive month, and the cumulative decrease of 2.6%since the peak in February. Swift said: "The latest data shows that the overall business activities of the United States will slow down, and the economic cycle may be turning." ICIS said that the recession threat, the trend of decarburization and energy fluctuations may cause chemicals in the next few years to cause chemicals in the next few years The production and production capacity expansion of polymers have caused a huge impact.

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