The Development and Reform Commission has shot pig prices: will be severely punished for raising the price

Qin Yanling

On July 4, the Development and Reform Commission held a meeting on the recent rise of pig prices. The organization of industry associations, some breeding companies and slaughtering enterprises held a meeting. The foundation. It is clearly stated that effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment will be taken to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively. It will strengthen market supervision with relevant departments, severely punish illegal acts such as scattered price increase information and raising prices.

On the same day, in the A -share market, pork stocks daily limit. Wen's shares have risen by nearly 12%, a new high of nearly two years; Muyuan shares have risen in a new five -month high; in addition, more than 10 daily limits such as Tiankang Biological, Xinwu Feng, superstar farm and animal husbandry, and new hope.

Stocking, waiting for a cycle turning point?

According to the test data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, as of 14:00 on July 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 25.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.8%over Friday.

In fact, since June 10, pig prices have continued to fluctuate -China Pig Raise Network Data shows that on July 4, the price of foreign pigs was 21.48 yuan/kg, which was 15.99 on June 10th, 15.99 on June 10th 15.99 on June 10th. The /kg rose nearly 34.33%, an increase of more than 70%from the low point in March.

"At present, the market is still at the bottom of the cycle. From the second half of last year, to the first quarter of this year, the overall" long L "trend, which is a typical large -cycle bottom form". The Securities Times explicitly stated in an interview.

After the bottom, the views of all parties did not clearly indicate when the inflection point arrived. However, the phenomenon of the unreasonable voltage fence and the secondary fattening of the market has caused the price of pigs to rise too fast, and some fabricated price increase information further exacerbated the market for sale in the short term.

The Development and Reform Commission clearly stated that blind fences and secondary fertilizers may lead to concentrated fences in the later period and the price fell rapidly again, resulting in the ups and downs of market prices, but it is not conducive to the normal production and operation of enterprises and the long -term healthy development of the industry.

Pig production capacity is reasonable and abundant

"At present, the production capacity of pigs is generally reasonable and abundant, and the consumption is not strong, and the price of pigs does not have the basis of continued to rise sharply." The Development and Reform Commission pointed out.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the number of sows across the country reached the peak level in recent years in June 2021 to 45.64 million heads. Since then, production capacity has fallen all the way, and it has fallen to 41.77 million heads in April 2022. This is also the market for sale. One of the reasons — It is expected that the production capacity will be degraded to the bottom, and the price of pigs will rise.

However, in May, the amount of sow storage in the country has increased to 41.92 million compared with April, which is higher than the national regulation of 3700-41 million heads. In other words, there is still the possibility of further exfoliating in the production capacity of the pig breeding industry, and the increase in pig prices is limited.

Judging from the statement of industry giants, pig production capacity is still guaranteed. Muyuan shares stated in the interactive platform on the 4th that it is expected that the company is expected to be 50 million-56 million heads from 2022, and the number of raw pigs in the whole year last year was 40.26 million.

When Wen's previous response has increased the number of outlets, it also stated that it will reasonably arrange the rhythm of the section of the column, and use a large scale to adopt a pressure bar or the early column strategy to adjust the rhythm of the column.

Adjust the price in time to prevent pig prices from soaring

At the meeting, the Development and Reform Commission requested that large -scale breeding enterprises took the lead in maintaining the rhythm of normal columns, adopting the fence and fertilizing pigs, and not blindly pressed the fence. It reminded companies not to hoard the price of strangeness, coax the prices, and do not collude the price increase.

Participants unanimously stated that they would strengthen the industry's self -discipline, take the lead in doing a good job in the pig market to protect the price of stable prices, and maintain the rhythm of the normal fence and not cover the fence.

In addition, the Development and Reform Commission also clearly stated that it will take effective measures such as reserve adjustment and supply and demand adjustment in a timely manner to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively, and to strengthen market supervision with relevant departments, severely punish illegal acts such as pumping and spreading price increase information, and raising prices to maintain normal maintenance normal. Market order promotes long -term healthy development of the industry.

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