The price of pigs and feed to fly in the industry is a high probability event

Wen | Xiao Wei

At the close on July 4, the main contract of pig futures was closed at 22,695 yuan/ton, a 7.71%increase from the previous day, and the other month's contracts also performed well. On the same day, in the A -share market, Wen's shares rose 11.82%. Zhenghong Technology, Xin Wufeng rose and Tianbang Food's daily limit, and the Tang Dynasty rose by 9.97%. The pork concept sector (code: BK0882) rose 6.56%on that day. The rising stocks in the sector were 35, and the net inflow of the main funds was 2.921 billion yuan. The reporter noticed that on July 4, the price of pig wholesale pigs had exceeded 22 yuan/kg. The price of feed is flying with pigs. Since July, many feed companies have raised feed quotes and plans to implement them one after another from July 7th to 10th. In this regard, a pig -raising company told the reporter of the Securities Daily that although the pig -raising enterprise bears the pressure of feed price increases, the inflection point of the pig cycle has arrived in March this year. , Cost control Top enterprises have stronger profitability than companies in the waist and designated size. Some analysts have also said that the recent feed has frequently increased prices. Pig raising companies should make relevant stocking early to enhance their operating capabilities. The cycle inflection point confirms that the industry has turned losses for a few days, the price of pig futures has risen all the way, and the spot price of pigs has followed up. On July 4, Yongyi Consulting released statistics. The average price of pork wholesale in Henan, Hebei, Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places exceeded 22 yuan/kg, which is expected to rise strong. Among them, the average price of pork wholesale in Zhejiang reached 25.06 yuan/kg, which is the highest price of the wholesale price of various places on the day. Does pig futures and spot prices connect? Does it mean that the inflection point of the pig cycle is confirmed, and the operating pressure of pig -raising enterprises can be relieved? In this regard, Sun Shuangsheng, the secretary of the Tang Dynasty, analyzed the above situation to reporters. "Although there are still some differences in the market, the trend of pig futures shows that the inflection point of this round of pig cycles is in March this year, and pig prices have entered since April this year. Upward channel. In terms of spot, in March this year, the wholesale price of pigs reached a low of about 11.5 yuan/kg. After that, the wholesale price of more than 22 yuan/kg on July 4th was basically confirmed that the pig cycle of this round of the pig cycle was basically confirmed. The bottom. "He added," Although the price of pig feed has been raised repeatedly, the inflection point of the pig cycle has arrived, and the overall turnover of the industry to turn losses is a high probability event. It is expected that pig prices will show volatility next year. There is also a certain profit window period for pig farming companies. Considering the industry's farm management level, uneven feed rate, strong comprehensive cost management and control capacity The profitability of enterprises below the waist and designated size is relatively weak. "The reporter sorted out and found that on June 24, Wen's shares said during the investigation of investors that the cost of pig farming in May was controlled at 8.5 yuan/kg, which is expected to be controlled at 8 Below of yuan/kg, the cost of raising pigs is expected to control pigs from 8 yuan/kg to 8.5 yuan/kg in 2022. Enterprises such as the Tang Dynasty also said that there are already related technologies and management methods to reduce the comprehensive cost of pig farming, and it is expected to maintain a reasonable and balanced breeding cost when the feed price increases. Frequent price increases for feed companies suggest that companies should respond to the price of pigs and spot prices as soon as possible, and the price of upstream feed is also frequently raised. The cost of feed occupies about 60%of the comprehensive cost of pig farming, and rising feed costs will undoubtedly raise the operating cost of pig farming companies. Since July, a number of feed companies have issued a promotion letter, and the first round of price increases in the feed industry have begun. From July 1st to July 3rd, Jiangxi Gelit, Xinxiu Liuhe, Ningbo Tianbang, Wuhan Zhengda, Jiangsu Tiancheng, Aohua Nonghu, Huajie Feed, Zhejiang Lianxing, Huzhou Emperor, Runfeng Feed Feed , Changzhou Haida and other feed companies have issued a price lifting letter, raising the price of pigs, poultry, aquatic products, and anti -ravioli feed ranging from 150 to 300 yuan per ton. day. Some feed companies reluctantly said that the price of raw materials continued to rise. In order to ensure product quality and the continuous operation of the enterprise, it had to increase its product prices. However, the current price is high, and the goods are generally. A feed company sales staff told reporters: "The raw materials of the feed rose very hard, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and wheat were all rising, protein powder also rose a lot. The company had some pressure on business, and had to mention price coverage. Cost. "He added." At present, the aquatic feed is better, and the pigs, poultry, and anti -ravioli feed are generally available. The willingness to pick up the goods for pigs to pick up the goods is not strong. After comparing the price of standard formula feed Network analyst Li Binbin confirmed the above situation and analyzed to reporters, "Pig feed is mainly soybean meal, and has a strong linkage effect with American soybeans. Since the beginning of this year, the price of crude oil has risen, and the cost of planting in American soybean farmers has risen. The area expanded, and the excellent growth rate of soybeans decreased by 3%year -on -year. The above factors jointly promoted the soybean supply and demand pattern to enter a tight balance. As the number of soybeans from Hong Kong to Hong Kong decreased in the later period, it is expected that the feed companies will have a price increase. Market market, speed up early stocking. "

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