Outlook for silver trend in the second half of 2022

In the first half of 2022, geopolitical situations, Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment, and economic recession worrieds have become the core influencing factor in the trend of silver. In addition, inflation continues to rise and the trend of non -ferrous metal sectors has also dragged down silver trends. London's spot silver prices were operated in the wide range of 20.19 ~ 26.945 US dollars/ounce, and the decline reached 12.99%, which was weaker than gold. In the second half of 2022, the Fed's monetary policy steering, economic trend expectations, and geopolitics are still the core influencing factor of the trend of silver. The interval operation is likely.

Silver price trend from January to July 2022

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In the first half of the year, the price of silver was rising first, and the overall performance was weak

In the first half of 2022, geopolitical situations, Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment, and economic recession worrieds have become the core influencing factor in the trend of silver. In addition, factors such as continuous inflation and the trend of non -ferrous metal sectors have also affected the trend of silver.

In the first quarter, the adjustment of monetary policy such as the Fed's start -up interest rate hike cycle was gradually being priced by the market. The upgrade of the Ukraine situation became the core influencing factor in the trend of silver. The price of the London stock silver rose to a high of $ 26.945/ounce.

In the second quarter, although the geopolitical situation was still deteriorating, the impact on the trend of silver was weakened; under high inflation, the Fed accelerated the tightening of monetary policy, and the economic recession was gradually heating up. The US dollar/ounce has a nearly two years. In the first half of 2022, the overall price of spot silver in London operated at 20.19 ~ 26.945 US dollars/ounce wide range, with a decline of 12.99%, and its performance was weaker than gold. The overall Shanghai Bank of China was running between 4454 ~ 5424 yuan/kg, with a decline of 6.67%. It continued to weaken in early July.

In the first half of 2022, Shanghai Bank performed stronger than the spot price of spot silver in London, mainly due to the impact of the depreciation of the renminbi, making the internal disk stronger than the outer disk. Let's review the trend of silver in the first half of the year in the quarter.

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Silver trend influencing factors analysis

From the fundamental point of view, in addition to 2013 and 2015, the demand for silver has increased significantly because of the great increase in investment demand. In other years in the past ten years, the demand for silver is smaller than the supply of silver, showing the fundamental trend of overdue.

Starting from the product attributes and price logic, the fundamental aspects of the excessive demand should continue to weaken silver prices, but the price of silver in the past three years is a situation of maintaining the overall rising, which is contradictory with the performance of supply and demand fundamentals. It shows that the impact of white silver's supply and demand on silver price is relatively limited, and the gold trend under the impact of currency attributes and bond attributes has become the core influencing factor in the trend of silver.

The focus of the trend of silver lies in the adjustment of monetary policy in the United States and Europe, concerns about economic recession, and emergency geopolitical situations. The impact of geopolitical situations on the price of silver will be short -term. The geopolitical situation will be clear or substantial progress. The operating logic of precious metals will return to the macro factors centered on the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy and the global economic growth as the core. And the price of silver is more about the expectations of monetary policy trends and economic growth. The policy tightening or economic recession expects to drag strongly for silver. When the market is expected to be digested or landed by the market, silver will follow the gold to go out of the air. Betting out.

The Fed's monetary policy is still expected to focus on inflation and inflation, and the Federal Reserve policy has tightened the effects of inflation or less than expected. The remaining time of the Fed in 2022 may raise interest rates for 175 basis points, and there are 4 meetings. The possible path is 50 ~ 50 ~ 50 ~ 25 basis points or 75 ~ 50 ~ 25 ~ 25 basis points. The choice of paths will be adjusted according to the performance of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed will continue to raise interest rate hikes. It is expected that the latter is likely to realize.

Economic recession concerns continues to heat up. First, the energy crisis, the food crisis and the supply chain crisis continue to trouble the global economy, and the cost of production and living has continued to increase, impacting the economy. Second, the Federal Reserve has accelerated the tightening of monetary policy and suppressing inflation from the demand side, but it also has a greater impact on the economy. Recently, the weakening of US macroeconomic data such as retail sales and new house construction also indicates that the economic weakness is inevitable. Even if it has not fallen into economic recession, the possibility of economic decline is greatly increased.

Now the market is worried about the economic recession, whether it is the macroeconomic data performance or the impact of monetary policy turning, also includes the impact of the supply side. The economic recession is still heating up. It has also become the core logic of the current financial market and commodity market fluctuations. The bull market is nearing its end. There is still a large space for risk assets. Colors and weaknesses will also drag the strong silver with strong correlation.

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Outlook for silver trend in the second half of 2022

The overall trend of gold is the anchor of the trend of silver, which has a great impact on silver in 2022. In addition, the trend of silver needs to pay attention to the economic recession concerns and the overall trend of the non -ferrous sector. It has a sharp impact on silver. The silver performance will continue to weaken gold.

Based on the economic trend and the drag of silver, the silver trend is expected to weaken gold. In 2022, there are the following points influencing the trend of silver:

First, the turn of monetary policy is imperative (sharp). The focus of attention is that the Fed's pace of tightening the policy and pay attention to the influence (Profit). Second, the US and European economies weakened after seeing the top. In 2022, the trend of weakening the global economy was obvious, and it did not rule out the possibility of falling into the economic recession (sharp).

Third, the progress of geopolitical situations affects the trend of silver.

Fourth, commodities may weaken, and the colored sectors are more likely to weaken, and it is dragged on silver. But silver will also keep up with the trend of gold, so the decline of silver is relatively limited.

In 2022, the core resistance level of the spot silver price of London was $ 28/ounce, corresponding to the first pressure level of the inner market around 6,000 yuan/kg. In 2022, if the geopolitical situation continues to be tight, the withdrawal of the Fed's monetary policy is not as expected, and the economic recession is concerned about the heating up, or other black swan incidents will occur.

The Federal Reserve's policy is tightened, the economic recession is concerned, and the non -ferrous metal disadvantaged expectations will continue to drag the performance of silver. The core support level is reduced by 16 to 18 US dollars per ounce. The probability of silver below the core support level is relatively small. Considering the exchange rate change, the core support position of the inner disc is 3500 ~ 3800 yuan/kg interval.

In the second half of 2022, the spot price of spot silver in London was likely to operate at 16-26 US dollars per ounce. Shanghai Bank was likely to run in 3500 ~ 5400 yuan/kg. If the Fed accelerates interest rate hikes and the economic recession is concerned about continuing heating up, the impact on silver will have a sharp impact on silver. If it meets the expected adjustment, it will have a negative impact on silver, and it will have a profitable impact. In the second half of 2022, the Fed's monetary policy steering, economic trend expectations, and geopolitics were still the core influencing factor of the trend of silver.

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