"Land volume" reverse repurchase reappearance of fiscal deposit changes affects the liquidity in July

(Reporter Liu Yang) The "land volume" reverse repurchase operation was reproduced. On the 4th, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the banking system reasonable and abundant, it carried out 3 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase operation, and the bid interest rate was 2.10%, which was the same as before. In view of the 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase expiration on the day, The public market achieved a net recovery of 97 billion yuan.

Affected by the cross -seasons last week, the short -term capital interest rate in the first four days gradually rose. Among them, the R001 weighted average interest rate closed at 3.0244%last Thursday, reaching the highest point since the beginning of the year; R007 also rose to 2.7078%in the second quarter. After the end of the half -year point, the funding surface turned back, and the main repurchase interest rate had fallen sharply last Friday. On the same day, R001 weighted the average interest rate of 1.5046%, and the turnover increased to 5.1 trillion yuan.

Since the end of April, the DR007 has continued to be under policy interest rates, and the liquidity between banks has continued to remain abundant. The interest rate center of the R007 was 1.95%, 1.74%, and 1.87%, respectively, from the 2.1%OMO interest rate, respectively at a low level. Although seasonal tightening was tightened in the last week of June, the capital surface was still loose in June. What is the market liquidity in July?

"The core factors of the liquidity of interbank interbank in July are still changes in fiscal deposits. In July, the tax payment was large, and the tax refund was basically over. The fiscal revenue will cause a certain extension effect on liquidity. The influence is that public fiscal revenue base and government fund income decline. The continuous efforts of superimposed fiscal expenditure, the gap caused by fiscal revenue is relatively limited. "Shen Xinfeng, chief macro analyst of Northeast Securities, believes.

At the same time, Shen Xinfeng said that in July, non -seasonal cash withdrawal or high loan increased month, so cash leaks and banks' accurate collection of liquidity were limited. In July 100 million yuan is the expiry of the open market. Specifically, the fiscal deposits are expected to return 253.9 billion yuan in the five factors, and the open market operation will be drawn 160 billion yuan. M0 and inventory cash will be drawn from about 20 billion yuan to the inter -bank market. , Foreign exchange occupies slightly fluctuated.

It should be noted that from 2019 to 2021, the average net increase in fiscal deposits in July was 492.4 billion yuan in July. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Bureau jointly issued the "Announcement on Expanding the Scope of Industry of the Full Refundance Value -of -VAT Tax Tax Deck Policy Industry" at the end of June, which clearly emphasizes that the seven major industries such as wholesale retail, catering accommodation, and other seven major industries will be included in the full refund value -added value -added from July 1st. The scope of tax refund policy.

The expansion of the tax refund policy will affect the net increase in the net fiscal deposit in July? "Because of the centralized tax refund, the scale of increased fiscal deposits this year may be slightly lower than the level of normal years. The estimated net increase is about 400 billion yuan. In summary, the funding gap in July was about 470 billion, and the static fund gap increased from June. "Zhang Wei, chief fixed income analyst of Founder Securities, judged.

Shen Xinfeng also pointed out that in the short term, the current fiscal policy should be the protagonist. The monetary policy needs to maintain the funding for reasonable and abundant funds, but there is no need for large water irrigation. OMO and MLF and 1 -year LPR policy interest rate reduction is not strong, but for targeted wide credit, the 5 -year LPR interest rate still has room for downgrade.

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