Facing the dilemma of production and sales, how can the automotive market boost?

Wen | Wang Panpan

Since March this year, the outbreak of automotive town such as Jilin and Shanghai has impacted the automotive industry in my country, and both sides of the supply and demand have faced greater challenges.

From the perspective of the supply side, car companies and component manufacturers of the epidemic area are reduced or even discontinued, and logistics transportation is blocked. The epidemic affects the radiation of the supply chain to other regions in China; from the perspective of the demand side, the rhythm of the epidemic area is interrupted, the residents' willingness to consumption decline, resulting in the car market. Consumption is sluggish.

In the face of the dilemma of production and sales, how can the automotive market boost?

The epidemic impacts the car's heavy town, and the supply chain is challenged

Shanghai and Jilin belong to my country's automobile town. According to Eapou search data, SAIC Group's production capacity in Shanghai in 2021 was 1.96 million units, accounting for 19.3%of the total production capacity (10.13 million vehicles); Tesla Super Factory was located in Shanghai, with production capacity of 450,000 vehicles; FAW Group's 2021 Jilin area in 2021 The capacity was 1.7 million units, accounting for 38.5%of the total capacity (4.42 million vehicles).

However, since March of this year, the large -scale epidemic in Jilin and Shanghai. Due to the large proportion of production capacity in the epidemic area of ​​many car companies, the impact of the epidemic has severely restricted the supply capacity of car companies. Enterprise vehicle manufacturers have been suspended, the rhythm of production has been disrupted, and uncertainty in operation has increased significantly.

According to the passenger car market information joint (hereinafter referred to as the "multiplier") data, in April, the output of Chinese narrow passenger cars (hereinafter referred to as "passenger cars") was 969,000, a year -on -year decrease of 41.1%, and 46.8%month -on -month decreased by 46.8%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 689,000 units, and the output loss was huge.

The impact of the epidemic also spread along the supply chain to the national automobile industry. Because Shanghai, Jilin and other places gathered a large number of key component suppliers in the automotive industry, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang -Anhui areas with Shanghai as the core are the core areas of automobile parts. Discontinued, superimposed in the shortage of early chips, and raw materials price increases, which led to further risks of supply chain risks in the automotive industry in the country. Affected by the limited production of upstream parts and component manufacturers and the obstruction of logistics under road transportation control, many auto companies such as Weilai, Great Wall tanks, ideals, Xiaopeng, etc. are facing the crisis of "disconnection". Follow the supply chain to other parts of the country.

In order to reduce costs and improve efficiency, automobile companies pursue the lean production model of low inventory or even zero inventory. The normal operation of this model requires high -efficiency and collaborative operation of the supply chain system. However, the impact of the epidemic has led to a huge impact of the traditional supply chain management model. Although some car companies have increased the inventory preparation, extend the inventory cycle, and adopt a closed production model to deal with the impact of the epidemic. Under the characteristics of difficulty, the risk of supply chain cannot be completely avoided. If this situation continues, it will force car companies to adjust the supply chain management method and strive to improve the security level of the supply chain. It will also increase the inventory risk and management costs accordingly.

Consumption power in the automotive market turns weak

From the perspective of demand, the epidemic has also led to the weak consumer demand in the automotive market in the near future. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods fell by 31.6%year -on -year, a decrease of 20.5 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period, significantly higher than that of other goods retail projects.

On the one hand, the rhythm of normal production and life in the epidemic area is passively interrupted. Shanghai, Jilin, Guangdong and other local dealers 4S stores enter the store and transactions are affected. It is difficult to carry out car sales and purchases. The change has led to a sharp decline in sales. According to data from the Shanghai Automobile Sales Industry Association, in April, Shanghai dealers were all closed, and car sales were zero. On the other hand, under the impact of the epidemic, residents' consumption capacity and consumption willingness decreased, the terminal demand for the auto market is affected, and the car consumer market shows a downturn. According to the new car traffic insurance data (including imports), the only cities in the top 100 in April are only 100 cities in cities. Twelve cities are growing on the previous month, and 6 cities in the top 10 cities have decreased by more than 20%from the previous month.

At the same time, affected by the epidemic, there is a blockage point in the car sales link, and the sales volume has fallen significantly, which has led to the increasing operating difficulties and inventory pressure of dealers. On the whole, according to the data of the China Automobile Distribution Association, in April, my country's auto dealers' inventory level rose, and the dealer's inventory warning index was 66.4%, ranking above the glory line, an increase of 10 percentage points year -on -year, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; The comprehensive inventory coefficient of dealers was 1.91, higher than the Rongku Line (1.50), an increase of 21.7%year -on -year, and a 9.1%month -on -month. In some cases, the regional indexes covering the epidemic areas such as Shanghai and Jilin are higher than that of the national total index. The distributor inventory early warning index (including Jilin) ​​index and the Eastern District (including Shanghai) index are 68.7%and 69.8%, respectively.

Looking at the new energy vehicles, although the new energy vehicle market has been growing for a long time, the impact of the epidemic in April was less than the year -on -year growth rate (more than 100%) in the first quarter, a decrease of more than 30%from the previous month. According to data from the Federation of Federation, the output of new energy vehicles in April increased by 52.6%year -on -year, a decrease of 33.1%month -on -month, and wholesale sales and retail sales increased by 50.1%and 78.4%year -on -year. , Factors such as the recovery of the epidemic in the Pearl River Delta region of the main camp. The epidemic has a small degree of affection. It ranks first in the list of wholesale sales and retail sales. Long -term measures combined with boosting the automobile market

In the short term, automobile companies are facing dual challenges of limited supply capacity and weakening of consumer motivation. They should adhere to the demand side first, and comprehensively develop their efforts from both ends of supply and demand to help the automotive market recover. The first is to accelerate the boosting confidence in the car market. Actively introduce policies such as increasing automobile consumption subsidies, promoting new energy vehicles to the countryside, adding new car purchase indicators, increasing car consumer financial services support, reducing vehicle purchase tax, etc., and improving residents' willingness to consumption and consumption confidence, especially those with no epidemic areas should be increased. Policy support, further tap the potential of car consumption, and drive the recovery of the national auto market. The second is to steadily restore the supply capacity of automobile companies. Actively promote the cooperative re -production and re -production of upstream and downstream enterprises, support leading car companies and component suppliers to improve information sharing, and coordinate the formulation of re -production plan according to the supply chain transportation situation. At present The approval process of the logistics communication certificate should be accelerated, the non -contact type or point -to -point cargo transportation should be promoted, and precise traffic management is implemented with the help of big data and other means to accelerate the restoration of logistics transportation; the supplier's red and yellow lamp monitoring system is established, and the supplier is classified according to the number of days of inventory. The red light supplier (inventory is less than 3 days) focuses on the key assistance.

In the middle and long term, the problem of smooth supply chain in the epidemic environment is highly effective and stable. The automotive industry should optimize the supply chain management method and improve the toughness and security of the supply chain. The first is to strengthen the construction of the supply chain risk prevention and control system. The leading car should actively sort out its own supply chain, establish a normalized monitoring mechanism and emergency response mechanism for supply chain risks, strengthen the construction of the supply chain emergency system in the region, and improve the supply chain risk identification and response capabilities. The second is to promote localization, diversification, and standardization of the supply chain system. Automobile companies should actively promote the construction of core component suppliers to build a nearby factory to improve the level of localization supporting; formulate the localization alternative of core components, establish a supplier's alternative library, etc. Part and component suppliers increase the degree of standardization of components to enhance the generality of parts and components. The third is to strengthen the entire strategic cooperation. The car should actively conduct strategic cooperation with important component suppliers, adopt shares and holding and holding in -depth binding, and build a long -term cooperative relationship with risks and share sharing to enhance the supply chain control capabilities.

(Author Unit: Research Center of the SASAC)

(This article was published in "China Economic Weekly", No. 12, 2022)

The cover of "China Economic Weekly" in the 12th issue of 2022

---

- END -