Revealing the reasons behind the "Fund Making Money and Not Making Capital"

According to statistics from Wanfe Information: In 2021, there were 1898 new public offering funds in China in 2021, more than 1,378 throughout 2020, a record high again; the scale of public funds in the market reached 297.143 billion yuan, which also set a record high.

More and more investors have managed wealth management through investment funds, which to a certain extent alleviate the financial anxiety they have nowhere to place. At the same time, the mentality of some investors' eagerness to achieve success has spawned common sense investment methods such as "seven -day frying foundation", leading to the phenomenon of "fund making money and not making money" in the market.

In the book "Long -term Cornerstone", the deep reasons behind them are analyzed. To sum up, investors are prone to misunderstandings such as short holding cycles, blind selection, chasing hot spots, and superstition of "champion base".

"Focus on long -term performance, focus on active investment"

- "Long -term Cornerstone" book preface

Author: Rui Meng

Professor Pengrui Finance Teaching Conservatory of China International Business School

01

"Fund makes money, and the people do not make money"

Behind

Holding cycle is shorter

According to the statistics of the National Public Fund Market Investor Survey Report (2020) (hereinafter referred to as the "Investigation Report") issued by the China Securities Investment Fund Although the cycle has increased from previous years, 44.1%of investors still hold a single public fund -raising fund for more than 1 year.

Among them, the proportion of holding a period of less than 6 months was 12.0%, an increase of 11.4%in 2019, and the proportion of 6 months to 1 year was 32.1%. Only 21.0%of investors hold single public funds for more than 3 years, of which investors holding 3 to 5 years and 5 years account for 11.5%and 9.5%, respectively.

Figure 1 2020 public fundraising fund

The proportion of investors with different investment periods

As shown in the table below, some studies have found that in the past 5 years, if a partial stock fund is held for half a year or 125 trading days, the probability of profitability is only 74.39%, which means that investors have 25 25 The probability of about %must lose money.

The profitability of holding one year has not improved significantly. Only when investors hold more than 2 years, the winning rate will obviously stand on the investor's side, and the median fund winning rate can reach more than 80%.

Table 1 Probability of holding period profit

Choose time

According to the statistics of the "Investigation Report" (as shown in Figure 2), investors believe that the timing of purchasing public funds is "the broader market is falling, and there is a chance to copy" the largest proportion, reaching 66.8%. The proportion of rising, optimistic about the market situation "is 44.5%. It can be seen that more investors tend to adventure to find investment opportunities in a certain risk.

Figure 2 The proportion of investors in different timing of investment public funds

Chase hot spots

Many investors like to chase market hotspots. New hotspots such as "new infrastructure", "carbon neutralization" and "Yuan universe" are full of markets, and investors continue to switch the track. However, the market hotspot is always changing rapidly. When a theme or industry becomes a hot spot, the price of related stocks is often at a high level. At this time, if investors buy again, the stock price will undoubtedly retreat.

We have statistics on the rise and fall of all CITIC -level industries in the eight quarters of 2020 to 2021. The industry with the largest increase is agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, consumer services, national defense military workers, non -ferrous metals, steel, power equipment and new energy sources. , Coal and Media. It can be seen clearly that none of them have repeatedly appeared.

Superstition "Champions"

According to the statistics of the "Investigation Report", as shown in Figure 3, the factors that investors must consider when choosing public funds are the performance of the fund, followed by the fund manager ranking and investment capacity (Figure 3 on the right side is the investor gives each of them give each one to each The average value of the factors is 5 points).

Figure 3 The factors for investors when investing in public funds

These misunderstandings often represent the deviation of the irrational decision -making and investment behavior of investors. Through interviews with many first -line fund managers of the China -EU Fund, we explored some strategies to deal with these misunderstandings.

02

Believe it who needs to be believed

I believe long -term power

Buffett once summarized his secrets of success: "Life is like snowball, the most important thing is to discover very wet snow and long slopes."

Only when this slope is long enough, the snowball of investment can play a role of compound profit, and then obtain long -term investment income.

Fund managers Wang Jian and Luo Jiaming expressed similar views in an same way. Even if excellent companies are temporarily in value depressions, they have the opportunity to realize value return in the long run. They must be long -term shareholders instead of short -term traders in investment.

From the perspective of fund manager Xu Wenxing, the long -term "reverse layout" of enterprises may sacrifice some short -term benefits when the prosperity is low, but it is actually conducive to the long -term value growth of the enterprise.

These are actually telling investors that short -term holdings may lose money due to the "wrong killing" of the transaction, but if long -term holding, the value of high -quality assets will be better reflected in investment income.

I believe the power of asset allocation

Many scholars such as Harry Marcivatz, Gary Brinsen and other scholars have analyzed the factors that determine the performance of the asset portfolio from an academic perspective. Choosing time is the most important factor, and it is often a negative factor. It is the most impact on the income of asset portfolios, accounting for more than 90%. Asset allocation is a long -term and diversified investment method, which is usually called "put eggs in different baskets". The fundamental purpose is not as much as improving investment income. Uncertainty.

Zhou Xiaopeng, director of the wealth management department responsible for the fund business in the fund business, expressed the consistent view. Compared with individual stocks, investment portfolios are more important; asset allocation is more important than time selection. Through FOF, public fundraising can be used as the underlying target, and a professional FOF fund manager can screen out the high -quality funds in the market to create asset allocation and combination, and perform dynamic adjustments. Investment method.

Believe in professional investment research

As we summarized earlier, the hotspots have been constantly changing, and it cannot bring stable Alpha benefits to investors. What can really bring to Alpha's income must be a professional and in -depth investment research (hereinafter referred to as investment research).

Professional fund managers can see the content that ordinary investors cannot see through public information and tap the core value of the enterprise.

Fund manager Zhou Yingbo proposed to do subtraction to reduce the coverage of the industry, focusing on a small number of industries and enterprises, digging and dying, so as to find true corporate value and the social value it brought by.

The fund manager Guo Rui's investment idea of ​​finding "desert flower" is also emphasizing in -depth investment research. Through professional research, it is like a company with unique operations in an uninvited industry. flower.

Whether it has professional investment and research capabilities is also a focus of general investors' inspection funds.

Believe in professional team

We first emphasize the strength of the team. The excellent fund of a fund is not the credit of the fund manager alone, and there must be an excellent team behind it to provide support silently.

Li Tong, a fund manager who had a big deal with Bill Gross with the "King of Bond", told us with her own experience that the team of Pacific Investment Management Company is the core competitiveness of the company. Achievement.

Bill Gross, the main trader of the global bond market

Professional teams will not ignore professional risk control, just like the fund manager Huang Hua has been reminding "don't consider the problem of making money first, first consider the problem of losing money", and do a good job of defense.

For ordinary investors, investing in a professional team can start from observing whether a fund company is professional. A comprehensive and excellent fund company representative is often professional team power.

Figure 4 is the fund investment misunderstanding and response strategy. To sum up, it is to believe in "long -term" and "professional". Let's take a look at how these fund managers reflect their "long -term" and "professional" in the interview.

Figure 4 Fund investment misunderstanding and response strategy

Finally, I sincerely thank the China -Europe Fund for providing the opportunity to communicate and learn with many big funds this time. I will share our interview content with everyone in this book. At the same time, I would also like to thank the colleagues of the Central and European Wealth Management Research Center Liu Xinjie and Gong Ming for their hard work for interviews and the book.

This is a book that condenses the author's experience and professional thinking for more than 20 years of wealth management teaching and professional thinking, and integrates many successful institutional investors in one place for "long -termism" and "value investment".

Among them, there are both senior China -EU Fund executives that have witnessed the growth of the Chinese public fund industry, as well as the investment director with rich experience in investment and research, as well as representatives of the middle -generation fund manager who daily research and thinking. They both shared the test ideas that have been tested in time, but also shared the standards of outstanding investment masters and entrepreneurs in their minds, and they became long -term cornerstones. The interpretation of this sentence of this sentence is just right.

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