The fiscal monetary policy is expected to increase the temperature and use a good structural tools and bond channels

Since the beginning of this year, my country has effectively implemented fiscal and monetary policies, and has stabilized the basic market for economic development to the greatest extent. Many interviewed experts pointed out that there is still room for financial and monetary policy in the second half of the year.

LPR has a downward space

CITIC Securities Chief Economist said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that it will continue to play the "guiding role" of LPR quotation system on loan interest rates in the future, and promote the reform of deposit quotation to reduce the cost of bank liabilities. At the same time, structural tools will pay more attention to accuracy.

Since April this year, 440 billion yuan re -loan tools have been launched one after another, including 200 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation re -loan, 100 billion yuan of transportation and logistics reinstatement, 100 billion yuan in support for coal clean and efficient use of special re -loan quotas, and 40 billion yuan of inclusive inclnust Re -loan in the field of pension.

Obviously, the central bank will continue to use targeted structural monetary policy tools to provide key support to the subject of the epidemic, and it may be added to the above -mentioned re -loan tools. Affected by the epidemic, some companies are facing the dilemma of closing or reducing production due to the blockage of production and operation, which in turn causes problems such as supply chain interruption. As a result, the central bank is expected to further increase loan support for private enterprises, promote the repair of effective financing demand, and then help the industrial chain reshape.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the Macro team of Cinda Securities believes that monetary policy will continue to make efforts from the total amount, or take LPR as the starting point. Second, with the support of the reform of deposit interest rates, banks are expected to further reduce the cost of liabilities, creating space for LPR to reduce the creation space. From a practical perspective such as the term spread, the possibility of lowering the LPR of more than 5 years; The current credit structure is weak, and the reduction of LPR is of great significance to stabilizing mortgages and stable expectations. In addition, in the next stage, monetary policy will continue to make structural efforts to further use structural monetary policy tools to better support economic recovery.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the second half of the year, domestic policies may mainly focus on stable employment, stabilizing prices, promoting domestic demand and risk prevention. This requires the rescue of enterprises in the trapped industry, helping them through the difficulties, stimulating the vitality of micro -subject, ensuring the smooth implementation of key projects, and enhancing effective investment; continuing to implement measures to ensure stable and price, effectively alleviate the cost pressure of corporate costs; continue to promote Pu Poly Benefits the development of finance and relieve financing pressures such as small and micro enterprises.

Zhou Maohua believes that in the second half of the year, monetary policy needs to continue to create a favorable environment for the economic recovery, and implement the previously introduced structural relief support policies. In the current complex environment, further collaboration of finance and monetary policy is needed.

Fiscal policy is expected to continue to increase

This year's fiscal policy is properly advanced. As the task of issuance of special bonds in the first half of the year is basically completed, the fiscal policy in the second half of the year is expected to continue to increase.

Oriental Wealth Choice data shows that in the first half of this year, the scale of special bond issuance reached 3406.2 billion yuan, which has completed 98.7%of the quota. Among them, the issuance of special bonds in June was 1372.4 billion yuan. This means that the 345 trillion yuan special debt quota that has been issued this year is basically issued, and it has also reserved debt issuance in the second half of the year.

Bai Yanfeng, dean of the School of Finance and Taxation of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the basic characteristic of the special debt is to emphasize the project's own income to balance himself. In the context of high economic downward pressure this year, adding special debt issuance quotas or issuing special bonds for next year in advance are possible choices.

"More importantly, how to put the special debt funds this year's special debt as soon as possible to form a workload that really promotes economic growth locally; in a procedure, whether it is issuing special bonds or issuing special bonds next year in advance, it needs to go through it. Some procedures and time. "Bai Yanfeng said that whether special bonds can make substantial contributions to this year's economic growth require comprehensive consideration.

He Daixin, director of the Finance Research Office of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Securities Daily that under the circumstances of the economic downward pressure, the use of special debt was accelerated. All parties have given great expectations for special debt support projects, but the scale of special debt and debt must be determined according to local government debt tolerance and project funding needs, and at the same time take into account the needs of economic and social development.

In terms of fiscal incremental tools, some experts have suggested that infrastructure investment should be further arranged in advance, continuously promoting tax reduction and fees, and relieving the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure through incremental tools such as special government bonds.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the first half of this year, epidemic prevention expenditures across the country increased significantly, and the support of financial funds increased; coupled Facing a certain pressure, the cost pressure of small and medium -sized enterprises located in the middle and lower reaches, which requires financial funds to rescue difficulties; infrastructure investment is an important starting point for the current stability of the economy. In the context of hidden debt supervision, special government bonds can raise funds. The use of funds to infrastructure projects does not rule out the possibility of issuing special Treasury bonds in the second half of the year.

However, Bai Yanfeng believes that the issuance of special Treasury bonds is an unconventional measure of fiscal expansion, and the premise of its role is that the potential economic growth rate has not yet fully achieved. At present, my country's economic development has a better environment. In order to prevent the negative impact of large -scale fiscal policies, special fiscal expansion measures should be used with caution.

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