The A -share market is expected to increase the volatility institutions

Wen | Zhao Ziqiang

This week, the A -share market has shocked, and the three major stock indexes have differentiated. The northern direction of funds flow into the trend, and the total net purchase is 10.231 billion yuan. Can the A -share market rise after the shock? Where is the investment opportunity? In this regard, industry insiders believe that market fluctuations may increase slightly, and continuous overheating transactions will be a signal worthy of vigilance. CICC believes that the continuous reverse characteristics of the Chinese and foreign macro policy cycles are still obvious. Domestic inflation is relatively mild. Compared with overseas markets, the domestic market may maintain relatively toughness in the second half of the year. If fluctuations in the global market will increase in the second half of the year, the Chinese market will also be implicated. In the short term, considering the gradual repair of domestic growth data in the next period of time, the capital side is still relatively loose, and the expected to be strengthened by epidemic restoration is gradually strengthened. The market may still be in the rebound range. The market has not reached the stage where the defense needs to be retreated, but it should be noted that after the rebound lasted for two months and accumulated some profit pressure, fluctuations may increase slightly. Minsheng Securities said that since late May, trend traders have gradually become the dominant power of the market, and this is often the source of market fragility. In terms of configuration, the sector co -purchased by the recent trend traders is consistent with the growth sector that has outstanding performance in this round. At present, the proportion indicator of the trend traders in our monitoring is approaching the critical point. Alert signal. Hua'an Securities believes that economic growth continued to restore economic growth in July, and the investment end continued to make efforts with the support of fiscal incremental tools, and the focus of economic restoration gradually shifted from the production end to the consumption end, especially the real estate consumption, service industry and corresponding employment and service category Consumption needs to pay close attention. 1. The A-share market of the stock market: this week (June 27-July 1, the same below), the three major stock indexes of A shares are divided. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 1.13%, at 3387.64 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 1.37%to 12860.36 points; the GEM refers to the fall of 1.50%to 2781.94 points. In terms of funds, the cumulative net purchase amount of Northbound funds this week reached 10.231 billion yuan. From the perspective of the net inflow of funds, there are only 3 types of net inflows in the 31 -type industry. Among them, the net inflow of banks is up to 1170 million yuan; Yuan. Table: This week (June 27th-July 1st), the net inflow of funds in the industry in the case of the capital inflows: From the perspective of the increase in the application of the application of the year, there are 22 types of industries this week. Among them, coal, coal, coal The industry rose 5.85%, in addition, 5 industries, including commercial trade and building materials, rose by more than 4%. Among the 9 categories of falls, cars fell the deepest, down 3.70%. It is worth noting that 72 shares will face the lifting of the restrictions next week, with a total of 7.281 billion shares of the lifting of the shares. Based on the latest closing price, the total market value of the ban is 77.927 billion yuan. From the perspective of lifting shares, Hongta Securities has the highest lifting ban, reaching 19.836 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock market: Although the overseas market fluctuates again, the overseas Chinese stock market continues to show its toughness. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%this week, and the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng State -owned Enterprise Index rose by 0.53%and 0.50%, respectively. In terms of sectors, real estate, telecommunications, and daily consumption sectors have led the rise of 5.3%, 5.3%, and 3.6%, respectively. Media entertainment, diversified finance, and medical care sectors performed backward, down 5.7%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively. Overseas markets: The three major indexes of U.S. stocks have increased on Friday (July 1). As of the close, the Dow rose 321.83 points, an increase of 1.05%, at 31097.26 points; ; S & P 500 index rose 39.95 points, an increase of 1.06%, at 3825.33 points. From the perspective of the week, the three major U.S. stocks have declined this week. On Friday, the closing of the three major European stock indexes rose and declined, and the British Fishi 100 Index closed down 0.01%to close 7168.65 points; the German DAX30 index closed up 0.23%to close 12813.03 points; Receive 5931.06 points. From the perspective of the week, the above-mentioned stock indexes fell, and the British FTSE 100 index rose -0.56%week; the German DAX30 index rose -2.33%weekly; the French CAC40 index rose -2.34%weekly. On Friday, the main stock index of the Asia-Pacific stock market fell, and the Nikkei 225 index rose -1.73%to 25935.62 points, and the cumulative rose of -2.10%this week; the South Korean KOSPI index rose -1.17%on Friday to 2305.42 points, rising -2.59%. 2. Pacific Securities in the bond market said that in terms of interest rate bonds, the 10 -year Treasury yield of Treasury bonds this week revolved around 2.83%. The capital of the previous trading days was affected by seasonal factors. Maintaining the liquidity of stability, with the gradual fading of the seasonal factors, the funds achieved steady cross seasons and returned to the loose. It is expected that the funding side will remain loose and support the performance of the debt market to a certain extent. PMI data released on Thursday shows that the economy has recovered, and the impact of the epidemic has gradually faded, but the recovery speed is less than 2020, and the economic fundamental recovery still takes time.

It is expected that the bond market is in the short -term fluctuation stage in the short term, and pay attention to whether the subsequent economic and financial data will have a high -expected rebound and incremental policy. 3. Foreign exchange news, the official foreign exchange reserve currency composition (COFER) data released on June 30, local time of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), shows that in the first quarter, the proportion of RMB in the global foreign exchange reserves was 2.79%rose to 2.88%, ranking fifth in the world. This is also the highest level since IMF announced in 2016. Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the postal savings bank, said that since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has strengthened, and the US dollar has appreciated significantly on the main reserve currency. Although the RMB exchange rate has depreciated by the US dollar exchange rate, compared with other international currencies, the amplitude is relatively moderate. The proportion of foreign exchange reserves continues to rise. 4. The Gold price week of commodities has fallen this week. This week's COMEX gold closed at $ 1812.9/ounce, a decrease of 0.95%. The decline in U.S. economic data is expected to not affect the Fed's determination to continue radical interest rate hikes to fight inflation. Therefore, gold continues to bear pressure on the fundamentals. Recommended reading

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