Gold price analysis in the first half of the year and the trend of the second half of the year

In the first half of 2022, the adjustment of the geopolitical situation and the Fed's monetary policy has successively became the core influencing factors of the trend of gold prices. In addition, factors such as continuous inflation and economic recession and liquidity status also affected the trend of gold prices. In the second half of 2022, the Fed's monetary policy turned, concerned about economic recession, and geopolitics was still the core influencing factor of the trend of gold prices. London's spot price is more than $ 1,700/ounce to 2,000 US dollars/ounces.

In the first half of 2022, the international gold price trend

1

Analysis of gold price trend in the first half of the year

In the first quarter, the adjustment of monetary policy such as the Fed's start -up interest rate hike cycle has gradually been priced by the market. Russia and Ukraine's geopolitical conflict has been continuously upgraded to become the core influencing factor of the trend of gold prices. Driven by the demand of risk aversion, the spot price of gold in London once rose to $ 2070.42/ USA/ The high position of the ounce is only one step away from the historical high.

In the second quarter, although the geopolitical situation was still deteriorating, the impact on the trend of gold prices weakened; under high inflation, the Fed accelerated the tightening of monetary policies, making the price of precious metals fell high; at the end of the second quarter, it became stable.

As of the first half of June 30th, London Gold operated in the whole of 1779.3 US dollars/ounce to $ 2070.42/ounce, and the overall declined slightly. About 5.2 %. In the first half of 2022, Shanghai Gold performed stronger than London Gold, mainly due to the impact of the depreciation of the renminbi, making the internal disk stronger than the outer disk.

In the first quarter, the geopolitical situation replaced the Fed's monetary policy steering factor, becoming the core influencing factor of the trend of gold prices; and the Fed's monetary policy tightened expectations and the landing was all priced by the market. Favorite impact; under the common role of geopolitics and policies to tighten landing and many other factors, gold prices have continued to strengthen.

The Golden Gold of London has risen up to $ 2070.42/ounce in the beginning of the year at the beginning of the year. At the end of the first quarter, a slight decline in the first quarter, and the increase in the first quarter remained at 5.89 %. From the low level of 372 yuan/gram, Shanghai Gold continued to strengthen, up up to 420.74 yuan/gram, and the increase in the first quarter was 5.64 %, which was basically the same as the increase in London's gold.

In the second quarter, the progress of geopolitical situations and the adjustment of the US Fed's monetary policy adjustment continued to dominate the gold market. The impact of geopolitics on gold prices has weakened, and the Fed's monetary policy exceeds that the speed up has been accelerated as the core influencing factor in the trend of gold prices.

After the Fed raised 25 basis points in March, 50 basis points raised interest rates in May, and 75 basis points were directly raised in June, and the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates in July continued to raise interest rates. By pressures fall; of course, at the end of the second quarter, the Fed's monetary policy accelerated tightening and expected to be priced by the market, and the price of gold tended to stabilize.

London Gold has risen to 1998.38 US dollars/ounces in the beginning of the second quarter, and then weakened. The market once fell to $ 1786.28/ounce, and at the end of the second quarter, it stabilized above $ 1,800/ounce. As of the second quarter of June 30, London's gold decline was about 6.2 %. The overall Shanghai Gold was running at 393.04 yuan/gram to 409.04 yuan/gram. It fell slightly and showed a stronger than London Gold. The main reason was that the RMB continued to depreciate in the second quarter.

2

Gold price analysis of influencing factors in the second half of the year

The geopolitical situation has a strong correlation with the trend of precious metals, especially in the first half of the year. Local political politics is constantly upgrading. Due to the uncertainty of geopolitical development, the price of precious metals remains strong. The local political situation is clear or the peace talks or substantial progress has emerged, and the price of precious metals will be adjusted and even weakened.

At present, Russian geopolitics has entered a state of stalemate, which has basically been priced on the benefits of gold prices, so the impact on the trend of gold prices is relatively limited.

Judging from the analysis of monetary policy adjustment and the trend of gold prices, when the Fed's monetary policy shifts to the expected strengthening, such as reducing the heating of debt purchase and interest rate hikes, the gold price remains weak. When monetary policy adjustment is digested or landed by the market, gold prices often often sell prices. Go out of the market that rebounds.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeded the tightening of the US dollar index. The overall situation of the US dollar index has not changed significantly. The US dollar will still maintain a high operation trend in the short term, but the above space is already very limited. The key resistance level above is 106.8 ~ 107, even if even The Federal Reserve has once again experienced an eagle performance, and the possibility of the US dollar index is relatively small.

From the mid -term perspective, although the Fed's monetary policy has shifted to the eagle, it has been accelerated and tightened by the market gradually being priced by the market; geopolitical conflicts and European Central Bank monetary policy began to release the tightening signal. The possibility of weak oscillations in half a year is high, and the overall high and low trend.

In addition, due to the Fed's accelerated interest rate hike, the US debt yield once exceeded the 3.5 % mark, and the resistance level above was further adjusted to a position of 3.8 % to 4 %, which was less likely to break through the mark. The 10 -year -old US debt yield has been close to the top, and the further increase in space is relatively limited. As the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike policy has landed in the second half of the year, the 10 -year US debt yield does not rule out the possibility of a high decline. Support interval. The impact of geopolitical situation on gold prices is short -term. After the geopolitical situation is clear, the macro factors that the Fed's monetary policy adjustment into the core is still the core operating logic of precious metals. Of course, the constant economic recession concerns also affects the trend of gold prices. The price of gold is more about reflecting the trend of monetary policy. When it is expected to be digested or landed by the market, the price of gold is more of a rebound market.

In the second half of the year, under the influence of the Federal Reserve's policy, concerns about economic recession, and geopolitical influence, the US dollar index and US debt yield trend look out. The value of gold configuration is still high. Slight gold.

3

Gold price view of the second half of the year

Regarding the trend of gold in 2022, the overall oscillation is strong, and the value of configuration is prominent.

In 2022, the factors of the trend of gold prices are the following six points: First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is accelerating and tightening. The focus of attention lies in the pace of the Fed's tightening policy; second, the US and European economies have weakened after seeing it. The US economic recession is concerned about heating up; the third is that the progress of the geopolitical situation affects the trend of gold prices; fourth, the current inflation is still at a high level. In 2022, it may show high and low trend, and the support for precious metal prices will weaken, but the relationship between the two is weakened; Fifth, under the expectations of the commodity and Bitcoin market, the funds will flow to the precious metal market; sixth is the era of credit currency. If the value of credit currency currency is unstable, it will be sold by the market. Payment methods are naturally favored.

After the Fed's accelerated tightening of the monetary policy path is gradually clarified, the economic recession is concerned about intensifying, the geopolitical situation has not improved substantially, and the possibility of large commodities and Bitcoin is high, and the value of gold configuration in the second half of the year is high.

In the middle and long term, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been accelerated and tightened by the market. The economic growth is downward. The inflation is higher than the expected and asset allocation needs. The value of gold allocation is still high. Do more. In 2022, the main operating range of the gold price was 1675 US dollars/ounce to $ 2075/ounce (Shanghai Gold 355 yuan/gram to 425 yuan/gram).

In the second half of 2022, the Fed's monetary policy turned, concerned about economic recession, and geopolitics was still the core influencing factor of the trend of gold prices. London Gold is likely to operate in the range of $ 1700/ounce to $ 2,000/ounce; Shanghai Gold is likely to operate in 365 yuan/gram to 420 yuan/gram. If the Fed continues to speed up the rate of interest rate hikes, it will have a short -term profit -free impact on the price of gold.

- END -