Why is the price of melamine?

Recently, the price of melamine in China has fallen sharply to more than 8,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). Compared with last year's high point, the price has been cut, and the industry has reached a serious loss. Why does the price of melamine fell sharply? In the author's opinion, the main reason is that global real estate enters the downward channel, and the terminal demand is seriously insufficient.

The lower reaches of melamine is mainly artificial plates and paint coatings. The terminal demand is the real estate field. From the perspective of domestic, according to statistics, from January to April, the construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises in my country was about 8.186 billion square meters, which was flat year -on -year; the newly started construction area of ​​houses was about 398 million square meters, a decrease of 26.3%; The decrease of 11.9%; the sales area of ​​commercial houses was about 398 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 20.9%; the land purchase area was 17.66 million square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 46.5%. Although in response to the downturn real estate market, relevant state departments have issued a series of market measures such as interest rate cuts, first payment, and relaxation of house purchase restrictions, but the transmission of policies takes time. The domestic real estate market is still sluggish. Essence

From the perspective of abroad, most of the global enters the interest rate hike period, which has inhibited the real estate market. The developed countries in the world have fallen into severe inflation dilemma. More and more countries have raised interest rates, which have inhibited the real estate industry, and the real estate market has entered a decline cycle. Taking the United States as an example, the sales volume of new unique houses in the United States in April fell to a low of 2 years. The number of second -hand housing signing indexes of the National Real Estate Broker Association decreased by 3.9%month -on -month, and the latest second -hand housing contract volume has decreased for 6 consecutive months, and it is at the slowest speed in the past year.

The price of urea abroad is much higher than the domestic, which means that the cost of melamine abroad is much higher than that in China. my country's melamine exports have absolute price competitiveness. In the absence of any restrictions on melamine exports, domestic melamine still fell below the cost, which also showed that international demand was extremely sluggish.

In summary, the downturn of terminal demand has caused the market prices of melamine to fall sharply. At present, the melamine market is in a state of upstream and downstream games. On the one hand, upstream manufacturers have considered cost reasons and are unwilling to reduce prices and increase inventory. On the other hand, due to poor demand, low operating rates, and increasing power of melamine demand. In the later period, the trend of melamine market needs to pay attention to the right to speak.

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