Peng Yongdong carried a heavy shell

@新 新 新

Author 丨 Bai Yan

Edit 丨 Monthly

In 2008, Zuo Hui received a master's degree in EMBA in Peking University, the chain family was suffering the biggest crisis since its establishment.

At that time, Zuo Hui predicted that due to the investment of infrastructure investment in the Olympic Games, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in Beijing throughout the year will exceed 100,000 units, but the result is more than 70,000 units. In August of that year, the transaction volume of second -hand housing in Beijing has been maintained by more than 40%year -on -year, and the most serious monthly transaction volume is less than half of 2007.

"I could lose 10 million a month, and only 67 million cash left in hand." The chain family had an unprecedented cash flow crisis.

A set of concepts that Zuo Hui often hangs on his mouth is point A and B, point A refers to the current status of the industry in the industry, and point B refers to the future maturity pattern of the industry. In Zuo Hui's view, whether you can see the future pattern of the industry and find a difficult and correct path to point B, which is related to the strategic success or failure of the company. Prior to this, point A in the intermediary industry earned the difference. Zuo Hui anchor B in the transparent transaction without eating the difference. As a result, the chain family succeeded.

Under the pressure, Zuo Hui, who lost point B, became anxious and sensitive. At a seminars of internal values, because of dissatisfaction with an internal manager, the godfather of the intermediary who was famous for his sense of reason suddenly couldn't suppress the crowd: "They are all surprised and feel like I have changed to a person. "

Fortunately, after taking out the annual profit invitation to IBM to do strategic consultation, Zuo Hui dug IBM consultants Peng Yongdong as CEO of Chainjia.com and re -determined point B as online. To this end, the chain home has successively built real estate dictionary and ACN broker cooperation network to provide things and people's preparations for point B. Until 2018, the shells were found to be online, and Zuo Hui's "doing difficult and correct things" pushed to the national intermediary market. The chain family has stabilized the heel at the second point B station.

Today, shell CEO Peng Yongdong is facing a new cycle. Under the adjustment of multiple policies such as house purchase, house sales, land shooting, financing, etc., in the third quarter of last year, the national second -hand housing GTV (total platform transaction) decreased by 41.6%. Peng Yongdong calls it "a full -scale market for frozen in all directions." Shell stock price has fallen from nearly $ 80 to about $ 20.

For Peng Yongdong, compared with the cycle of 2008, the cold wave of the property market has also been violently impacted. The old left of the shell spiritual leader has left. This has made him have no choice. Find a new point B in the shell, and the correct and correct path.

01 Chain Home no longer has "Zuohui Display"

Facing the crisis, Peng Yongdong maintained the same strategy as Zuo Hui and expanded cautiously.

In 2008, the chain family encountered the impact of the market decline, but a month later the market recovered. In Zuo Hui's words, "it was natural to come back."

At that time, I loved my opponents and other opponents and generally held pessimistic attitudes towards the recovery of the Beijing property market and sold the stores. However, Zuo Hui seized the number of opportunities to expand the number of stores and made the chain home the first in the Beijing intermediary industry.

The situation faced by Peng Yongdong is very similar to that in 2008. From the three quarters of the Q3 last year, shell revenue growth rates were -11.94%, -21.55%, and -39.37%, respectively. The net profit turned from profit to losses. At the 2021 annual financial report conference, Peng Yongdong's summary of the real estate market environment in the past year was "unprecedented difficult years."

The difference is that Peng Yongdong's card is better than Zuo Hui. In 2008, Zuo Hui's money was only burned for a few months, but according to the 2021 annual report data, the cash of the shell was enough for several years. This made Peng Yongdong more at all. At the end of last year, Peng Yongdong released a "one -in -two -wing" strategy with a harsh market environment, announcing the establishment of a whole -family business group and a Huizhu business group, and the shell officially rushed to the second curve.

This is a decision to abandon the car. In order to reduce the cost of manpower and reduce losses, the shell has been exposed many times in a row since last year. A chain family expressed his "new entropy".

According to the statistics of "Late LastPost", the shell has cut about 4,600 employees in the office area of ​​Beijing to about 3,000. Among them, the home department merged with the home improvement department. The previous independent production and research system was merged into the business system.

The chain home is also the main battlefield of this round of tailoring. With the repeated impact of the new crown epidemic in the market cycle, more and more stores have fallen below the GTV 50 million yuan of food and clothing. Peng Yongdong had to bow to the cycle. The "big store model" that improves the priority, and some losses have entered the optimized sequence. It is expected that by the second quarter of this year, the number of stores in the chain home will be further reduced.

This is in sharp contrast to the large -scale money in the field of home improvement last year. According to the new residence strategy proposed on the two anniversary of the shell, Peng Yongdong pushed the shell to acquire Sandu home costume at 8 billion yuan in July last year. The latter is a decoration enterprise established for nearly 20 years, which is the first name of the national preparation sales.

If Peng Yongdong and Zuo Hui compare the measures of the two rounds of market cycle fluctuations, a clear result is that Peng Yongdong is more complicated than Zuo Hui.

In Zuo Hui's view, 2008 was a turning point from the buyer's market to the seller's market. During the Peng Yongdong period, the judgment of the shell was that the real estate market was changing from incremental upper to a parallel to stock, and consumer buyer faith is fading. The golden age of local real estate agents is over, and the weight of the chain family in the shell system will continue to decline. 02 The second curve is home improvement

The shell hopes to use such an idea to make the second curve -use the accurate buyer data of the shell to provide them with their own home improvement and home service. On the basis of millions of VR housing data, shells even develop the ability to design and decorate the AI ​​design and decoration solution.

However, for Peng Yongdong, the path to point B of the home improvement is not easy to go. It integrates the "dirty and messy" home improvement industry. The difficulty is not lower than the real estate intermediary market.

Wang Jianguo, an Internet strategic expert in designing the industry, told the "new entropy" that in the home improvement industry, Qi Jia and Tuba Rabbit are very successful vertical field platforms, mainly to provide matching services, including process control and quality guarantee. And these vertical platforms have been operating for more than ten years, their industrial rooting, and financing capabilities are not simply copied.

After entering the home improvement market, the shell has gone through a painful adjustment stage, such as repeatedly replaced the person in charge.

According to the Focus of Financial Report, in April last year, Peng Yongdong appointed Zhang Haiming as the person in charge of the shell furniture business. However, in August, a shell was notified to announce that Zhang Haiming left the job due to family reasons.

Zhang Haiming and Liang Lei both have the background of the manager of the shell area. What is good at is the mergers and acquisitions of the local intermediary brand and the franchise management of the Deyou brand, instead of providing better decoration services. Zhang Haiming is the general manager of the southern area of ​​the shell, and Liang Lei is the general manager of the shell southern province.

In shells, Zhang Haiming is considered to be the core backbone of the agent and excellent performance, but in the newly launched home improvement business, he has to face the same problem as Peng Yongdong. The growth of shell home improvement is particularly bumpy.

Wang Jianguo told the "new entropy" that a successful horizontal platform does not mean that he can "genetically mutations" and thus has vertical business capabilities. The horizontal platform is vertical business, and it is more to obtain returns with investment logic, such as Tencent and Didi, 58 City and Tuba Rabbit. As a horizontal platform, entering the home improvement business requires genetic integration and organizational reconstruction, and the business model and team of shells are difficult to directly make home improvement business:

"Repeated replacement is just the most basic feedback. Trial and error and iteration cannot be avoided. It is not impossible to push down. The shell can be higher than the direct selling of traffic, it is already very successful."

This is also a problem that shells encountered on home improvement tracks. Zuo Hui left only a vague goal -to subvert the home improvement industry in a difficult and correct way, formulate new service standards, and improve consumer satisfaction. And what is the path to point B? Peng Yongdong has not given a clear answer.

03 How to answer "Zuo Hui's question"?

At the press conference when the shell was listed, how did the shell mode mentioned? Zuo Hui left three goals:

1. Can the average annual GTV of the store increase to 50 million?

2. Can consumer NPS (net recommendation value) increase to 20%to 30%?

3. Can the average employment time of the agent be increased to about 30 months?

These questions originated from Zuo Hui's early years of employment. The traditional intermediary industry is popular in the "twist towel" theory. Intermediaries and insurance sellers are regarded as towels like insurance sellers, and twisting one by one. Zuo Hui was indignant to this:

"Mainland intermediaries are broken by Hong Kong -style agencies."

For a long time, the intermediary industry held a warning attitude towards Shell ACN broker cooperation network. In 2020, a shell China East brand owner has hissing in social media to ask the shell to cross the brand management agent. The Lord competed for the store, and the result was that the brand was overhead.

Few people know that ACN first originated from Peng Yongdong's proposal. According to the US intermediary industry association model model, the house shared house and buyer database, and the agent was divided into sellers and buyers. commission. Zuo Hui described this to "evolve from the vicious competition from zero-sum to a vicious competition from zero-sum."

But until Peng Yongdong took over the CEO of the shell, the intermediary was still far from the respected ideals. After Zuo Hui's departure, the discussion of the polarization of the social media confirmed this. Some users wrote: "The biggest contribution of real estate agencies is to block the transmission of personal real housing, which is equivalent to making viruses by killing virus."

"The value provided by the intermediary is not worth so much money, and I can do everything he can do." The buyer Lao Geng told the "new entropy". In order to buy a new house, Lao Geng spent two years to travel to the target area for two years, constantly collecting small note and phone numbers posted on the advertising bar, and self -study. A more satisfactory house.

But not all buyers are willing to pay for self -study and house -seeking time -costing time, like Lao Geng. For busy groups, intermediaries can greatly save their energy.

A chain family told "new entropy" that the value of the intermediary is to accelerate the efficiency of industry circulation and make the transaction safer and more convenient: "The contract is becoming more and more complicated, the ordinary people understand the operation is very difficult, and the potential legal risks are many. This We need to provide professional support from time to time. "On the side of the agent, there are still many problems with the ACN cooperation network. "ACN is more of the distribution mechanism of internal resources, but there are also problems. If the shells need to expand external brands, they acquiesce in violation of the rules." A chain family agent stated to "new entropy" that one of his customers had already optiminated the listing of housing. Ready to place an order, but it is taken away by other brands of the shell system agent, and the shell has no response to this result.

This echoes Zuo Hui's statement when responding to the shell brand owner: "On this difficult road, (shell) still has a lot of work to do."

For Peng Yongdong, the situation has become more complicated. In the field of real estate agent, Zuo Hui's ideal B has not yet arrived. In the home improvement track, the shell must be difficult and correct to subvert a new industry in point B. Develop. The shell belief uses the heaviest path to solve the problem, but it is as important as the pace. There is still time -before arriving at point B, there are countless cycles waiting for the shell leap.

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