This year's A shares are expected to get out of the "√" market, and invest in two directions: "Pan New Energy" and "Social Rong Drive"

In the first half of the year, the A -share market came out of the "deep V" trend. On the whole, the main index was still falling. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, GEM Index, and Science and Technology 50 Index fell 6.63%, 13.2%, 15.41%, and 20.92%in the first half of the year. In terms of sectors, the coal index is the only one of the rising Shenwan industry indexes, and the cumulative increase is as high as 31.38%. The new energy index has risen by more than 40%since the stage of the market on April 27, driving the entire market trend reversal.

In the second half of the year, will A shares continue the rebound since the end of April? Is there a recent cooling of new energy track stock stocks worth investing? How is the continuity of the big consumer sector? July reports disclosed one after another, how should investors grasp how to grasp it Interim report? In response to the concerns of investors, the reporter of "Public Securities News" specially interviewed the two industry insiders, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open source, and Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst of China Merchants Securities, answered investors.

It is expected to expand further in the second half of the year

Reporter: In the first half of the year, A shares were suppressed first and then Yang, and the index performance was still poor. How do you expect the market to perform in the second half of the year? Will the entrepreneurial board be caught up later? What will happen to the market investment style?

Yang Delong: In the first half of the year, the A -share market has gone out of the "deep V" trend. In the second half of the year, it is expected to further expand the space to chase the "" path of the hook type. After a series of stable growth policies gradually landed, the economy will rise further in the second half of the year. As the stock market of the economic barometer, it is often the bottom of the economy and reflects economic changes from the medium term. If the economy continues to rise in the second half of the year, the performance of the A -share market is worth looking forward to.

In the second half of the year, as the central bank has maintained a loose monetary policy, the economy has rebounded, and investor confidence has become more and more confident. Consumption and new energy will work together. New energy has taken the lead in recovering the loss of land at the beginning of the year. Many stocks have reached a new high. Consumption has just started. If consumption has rebounded in the second half of the year, these white horse stocks will also recover the loss of land at the beginning of the year. Therefore, there is still hope for the exponential year to collect the yang this year, especially the probability of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index's annual line.

Zhang Xia: In the second half of the year, with the improvement of consumption and investment demand, my country's economy will gradually move from a downward period to a recovery period. Global has gradually entered a recession period from the stasis period, and the yield of US debt is on the top. In this context, the second half of the year will continue the trend of A shares, showing the trend of fluctuating upward, and the probability of "√" throughout the year will be further increased. The current liquidity is very abundant, and it has positive support for A shares valuations, reflecting the characteristics of liquidity driving. With the further implementation of the steady growth policy, the financing demand of infrastructure and manufacturing industry has recovered, and the sales of real estate sales have also improved. The growth rate of new social integration is expected to surge, which is reflected in the characteristics of social integration.

From the past, after the large -level bull market was over, when the subsequent structural market opened, due to the lack of continuous incremental funds and "resistance level effects", the plates of the fund in the big bull market often no longer become a sector that the institution valued. As a result, the sector often ranks penultimate in the two and a half years of the end of the bull market. And other sectors are better due to incremental funds with stock adjustments. The growth style of the optimal market in the past two years will gradually make small and medium -sized and valuable style.

Profitable mining sectors of quarter -improving mining

Reporter: In July, the performance of listed companies' interim reports began to disclose. How do you expect the overall performance of the listed company? What industries will there be exceeded expectations? How can investors grasp the report?

Yang Delong: Affected by the epidemic, many listed companies may not be ideal, but this does not affect our judgment on future investment opportunities. Because after the epidemic is basically effectively controlled in the second half of the year, the economy will recover quickly, especially the suppressed consumer demand may be released.

Therefore, we must pay attention to the interim report, but we cannot rely too much on the interim report to judge investment opportunities. In fact, the impact of many enterprises' performance is only a temporary decline, and it does not necessarily truly reflect the long -term operating capabilities of the enterprise. In the second half of the year, the recovery of consumption, new energy continues to maintain a high degree of prosperity, these two directions may still become a rising section in the second half of the year.

Zhang Xia: In the second half of the year, with the restoration of the economy after the epidemic, the relaxation of liquidity, and the gradual advancement of steady growth, the profit of A shares is expected to start a new round of upward cycle. Essence The interim report is expected to be the bottom of this round of performance. The cumulative growth rate of all A is expected to turn negative, and non-financial petroleum petrochemicals are expected to have a cumulative profit growth of -4.5%. The high growth rate is expected to be mainly upstream resource products, medical care and other sectors.

The performance of the interim report is expected to perform well or even exceeded expected. We believe that the main focus is in the following directions: benefiting upstream resource products that benefit from the price maintenance and the demand for stable growth (petroleum petrochemical, coal, basic chemical industry, steel, non -ferrous, etc.); New energy infrastructure fields (power equipment and new energy, machinery), consumption recovery sector (food and beverages) after the epidemic, as well as the segmentation of communications, national defense military workers, and automobiles.

Industry configuration is layout along two directions

Reporter: New Energy is one of the most popular tracks that are not allowed in the first half of the year. However, there are signs of cooling recently. How do you think of the later opportunities of the new energy sector? Recently, with the adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy, the large consumer sector has recovered. What is your prediction to the continuity of the sector? In the second half of the year, which industry sector do you recommend to allocate? Yang Delong: In the context of economic recovery and consumption rebound, new energy and consumption will rise in the second half of the year, and you will win other sectors far. New Energy and other track stocks have increased in the past two months, which has accumulated a large number of profit tray, which may have short -term fluctuations, but it does not affect the mid -to -long -term performance. There may be one or two waves of new energy markets in half a year.

Consumption is a sector that is affected by the epidemic. In the first half of the year, consumer stocks have fallen collectively, but now after the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the ninth edition of the epidemic prevention and control measures is introduced, the epidemic control measures are adjusted accordingly. The sign "mark greatly stimulates the consumer demand of tourism and tax -free. Consumer stocks, such as liquor, food, drink, Chinese medicine, and tax -free, are expected to relay new energy and continue to lead the index to rise.

Some time ago, when I participated in the liquor leading shareholders' meeting in Moutai Town, I had a long talk with two famous investors Lin Yuan and Dan Bin. We agreed that consumption was the most worthy of long -term investment. If you are the timing of the left layout before April 27, you do not get on the car, then the timing of the right layout is now. After the right trend is established, you must get on the car decisively, otherwise you may miss another chance. Historically, every time consumer stocks plummeted due to accidents, it was an excellent time to get on the car.

Zhang Xia: The new energy sector performed strongly after the market was underground at the end of April. In the future, before the current social integration growth rate, especially the mid -to -long -term social merger, the market is reflected in the characteristics of obvious liquidity driving. Industry with large space, determining growth, or independent prosperity, such as new energy, will be due to the flow. Sexual improvement is reflected in the characteristics of valuation expansion, and as the demand for subsequent financing has improved significantly, the cyclical upstream and downstream consumption, building materials, non -ferris and banks will have better performance. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on whether the medium and long -term social integration has improved significantly.

The large consumer sector has recently recovered, on the one hand, it is related to the margin of the travel policy; on the other hand, the policy side has continued to support the consumer field, such as the issuance of consumer coupons and the decrease in car purchase tax, which constitutes a demand support for the consumer sector. In addition, market expectations continue to improve in June, and further strengthening the economic recovery expectations also constitute a major factor to support the rise in the consumer sector. Follow -up, large consumer sectors such as liquor plus real estate chains (home appliances, home appliances, home, building materials) are typical social merger -driven industries. The continuity of the subsequent sector still depends on social data.

In the second half of the year, the main line of the industry is recommended to lay out along the two directions of "Pan -New Energy" and "Social Rong Drive". Prior to the significant improvement of social merges in the medium and long -term social integration, there are better performance in the related fields of new industrial trends, such as scenery storage, smart vehicles, lithium ore, and automated equipment. After the improvement of social finance, infrastructure investment stabilizes. After the real estate blessing, the social integration can be capable of capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to liquor, real estate chain consumption, banking, and insurance. Reporter Chen Hui

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