Menghua Lu HE, Ai Youteng be

Text | Mountain Walnut

The "Gu Pan Shenghui", which is being stunned by the whole people, finally ushered in HE (the ending of Happy Ending's family).

At the closing ceremony of nearly eight hours on June 23, the shopkeepers of the modern Yongan Building accompanied the "Records" to spend an unforgettable night, and the Tencent video "Super on -demand" and so on The topic is sent to the hot search again.

Participating in this "refreshing gift" specially prepared for the recorder is not without a threshold. It is necessary to buy the "Gu Pan Sheng Hui Gift Pack" worth 18 yuan to unlock the big end of the closing of the membership on July 3.

"On average, one episode is less than 3 yuan, you can read the finale directly, or it is still not lost." A "Menghua Lu" fans said nothing about finance. According to the "zinc scale" report from the media, the number of reservations for "Menghua Record" reservation is nearly 800,000, and some people in the industry estimate that the benefits of Tencent Video only the gift package of the Gift package will be around 1.4 million yuan.

Obviously, not all users buy it. Under the topic of "Menghua Record Dajie Yingli", some netizens bluntly said: "After reading Menghua Lu, the members of the goose have been canceled."

There is no doubt that in the short term, the Chinese long video track that cannot be seen in the short term, Tencent Video's restart is overpoch this time, is a dangerous strategy. Because from the perspective of traffic or short -term income, throughout June, "Menghua Record" made goose win, and also made goose scolded.

Is it anxious to restart the "printing machine" mode?

Before "Menghua Record", the first "super on -demand" model in China was also Tencent video.

In 2019, the drama "Chen Qing Ling" jumped into the top of the ratings. Tencent Video has launched a member benefits of "Reading the Finale". Short -term returns.

Perhaps in the on -demand mode, I have seen the strength of the explosive gold absorption. Since then, Tencent Video has adopted the "advanced on -demand" mode, "You Ai Mang" and other popular dramas such as "Qingyu Nian" and "Crimson Storm". Large video platforms have followed suit, and the report of the "2021 Series Playing Performance and User Analysis of the Drama Market in 2021" released by Yunhe data shows that in the past year Essence

However, the "Super Divecation" model has always been controversial. In September last year, under the pressure of user disputes and official criticisms, "Ai You Teng" actively abandoned "advanced on -demand", and iQiyi CEO Gong Yu responded to the incident: "Cancellation of advanced on -demand is not under pressure from the competent department. But members are not satisfied. "

However, in the nearly a year after the official announcement, the long video platform was still crazy on the edge of "advanced on -demand".

In March of this year, Mango TV tried the model of "Paid Live+Direct Finale" in "Shang Food", and Youku played the "Pindy Multi -style" in "I am Zhao Jiadi" in "I'm Zhao Jiadi". Routine, but from the perspective of user experience, the effect is not satisfactory.

After all, the essence of the "on -demand model" is the upgraded version of the member system, that is, the long video platform provides users with different value -added services through differentiated pricing.

The core cause of the "demand mode" is not difficult to understand. On the one hand, in the context of frequent video platforms on long video platforms, the membership habits of members of domestic users still belong to the training stage, and any wind and grass movement on the supply side will trigger the consumption end. Compared with the media platform, because "You Ai Teng Mang" has not yet formed a large -scale production of high -quality content, under the radical profit strategy, related products and supporting services have not kept up in time.

This time, Tencent Video restarted the super on -demand mode through "Menghua Lu", which is a concentration of "goose" growth anxiety.

Although the big tree is good for the cold, on the long video track, objectively speaking, before the "Menghua Record", Tencent Video did not set off too much waves in the first half of 2022.

In terms of content supply, in the first half of 2022, the drama concentration of iQiyi, the world of the world, the "chart of the hunting", and "Heart" and other dramas realized the double harvest of word of mouth and traffic. Among them, the Douban score of "The World" has a score of 8.1 points, attracting 25 advertisers, and the "Police Glory" on the other side of the same period also forms a division of courts with "Menghua Record".

Youku used solo dramas such as "The Gate of Rebirth" and "Knowing with the Jun Chu · Just Similar to the Rewards".

In terms of profit, with iQiyi surrendered the "quarterly profit" transcript, it broke the spell of the loss of long videos. In the era of "reduction and efficiency", the pressure also gave the former difficult brother -Tencent Video This side.

When the lively and explosive models belong to their peers, the arrival of "Menghua Record" is an unexpected joy for Tencent videos. Essence

What's more important is that for Tencent Video, the glory of the "Menghua Record" "Menghua Record" in the first half of the year may be difficult to reproduce in the second half of the year. Judging from the recently released content films released by "You Aiteng", despite the rich reserves, the smell of smoke has been smelled in the arms competition of the same type of drama.

Taking the main theme episode as an example, Youku recently launched Zhao Liying's rural revitalization realistic drama "Happiness to Wanjia", iQiyi official Xuan Zhangyi and Zhang Songwen starred in the black drama "Cycling". There are many main melody IPs such as the county party committee "and" Public Prosecution Elite ", and there are noon sunshine blessings, but the specific broadcast date has not been announced. It can be said that behind the "super dots" of "Menghua Record" is a "geese" replacing the business satisfactory with a short -term income. Although "eating" is ugly, it is also an unexpected inevitable.

Profit and explosive money are just partial victories

Whether it is the short -term income brought by the explosive "Menghua Record" to Tencent Video, or the "quarterly profit" banner of iQiyi, frankly speaking, profit and explosive models are only a local victory in China's long video.

There is still a long way to go from the "stable hematopoietic" of the long video business.

In the past period of time, after experiencing the "burn money" at no cost, "love and excellence" has gradually formed a consensus of "cost reduction and efficiency". Tencent Video first shouted the slogan of "cost reduction and efficiency". Gong Yu also made it clear that the new feature of China's long video industry was "pursuing efficiency, pursuing losses, and eventually pursuing profitability."

"Turnive reduction and efficiency" is not easy. For the Chinese long video industry that is used to "high -rise and high", the story of "burning money for growth" has lost its charm in the past. As of now, iQiyi's stock price has been less than a quarter of the issue price, which is basically estimated The bottom of the value.

The new story script is "reduced losses", and the strategy adopted by "You Aiteng" cannot escape the "open source throttling": first, improve ARPU (a single member value), and the other is to optimize the cost.

Theoretically, the paid space for long video platforms still has great potential. On the one hand, compared with other online businesses, long video payment rates are still low. Data from Tiger Securities show that the current online video payment rate in my country is about 18.8%, while the payment rate of mobile games and live broadcasts has reached more than 30%.

On the other hand, compared with the foreign streaming platform Nai Fei, Hulu, and Disney+, the price of You Aiteng members still has room for price increase. For example, the cost of the standard account of Nafei North America is $ 15.49 per month. The monthly membership price of Hulu and Disney+is 12.99 and 11.99 US dollars, which is much higher than the monthly card price of 25-30 yuan in the domestic long video platform.

The "former waves" let You Aiteng outside the ocean see the possibility of using prices in exchange for profit. Since the end of 2021, the domestic long video platform has completed a new round of "price increase", with a price increase range ranging from 3-10 yuan.

Objectively speaking, price increase is the "reasons" of long video platforms. After all, the total number of major videos has been "lying flat" for a long time.

The latest financial report shows that the number of Tencent video members is 124 million, a decline of 125 million in the first quarter of last year. One, but the number last year was 105.4 billion.

The "100 million" member scale is an important inflection point for the long video industry to go to bottlenecks. When the size of the member enters the stable period, the long video platform can only pay a little more money from the user's pocket through the "price increase".

Among them, there is a typical long video paradox -after "purifying" members, how to continue to rely on high -quality content to enhance user stickiness?

Taking around, he returned to the origin, and paid members enlarged the shortcomings of the domestic long video platform on the content supply layer. In other words, only one "Menghua Record" drives paid membership income. The stickiness of this "impulse consumption" itself is limited.

It can also be seen that the "loss loss" financial report that has frequently exposed iQiyi has also been seen that it is not a explosion of the key reasons to promote the loss of losses, but more "thri" -that is, the cost of optimizing the internal sword is optimized.

Long video platform often has a huge cost center. If you want to squeeze the last drop of water on the towel, you must move other or marginal services outside the main business.

Taking iQiyi as an example, after shouting the slogan of "Balance of Basis and Losses", according to media reports, members of the iQiyi Research Institute, iQiyi Game Center, and short -term video "casual" and other project departments were cut one after another. At the performance exchange conference, Gong Yu repeatedly emphasized the "optimizing the structure of the personnel and reducing the long -tail content".

Coincidentally. Since the end of last year, according to 36 氪 reports, the Tencent PCG business group has reduced multiple rounds of personnel.

Whether it is open source or throwing, the domestic long video platform has not found a business model that can run through. Even if it emphasizes that focusing on the high -quality content of the head, the large -scale advantage is still not formed to further leverage the flywheels of growth and profit.

In fact, the understanding of high -quality content in the domestic long video platform is still "explosive drama", and the explosion itself is difficult to standardize the content.

As an example, the "Squid Game", which believes that Nai Fei brought the value of $ 900 million, as an example, the director Huang Donghe had completed the script as early as 2009, but in more than 10 years, many producers were "too bloody" and "no commercial value". Reject several times. According to media reports, Nai Fei's investment in "Squid Games" is not as good as other large scripts, and its production cost is only $ 21.4 million.

In other words, "Squid Game" is a victory that Nai Fei invests in long -tail at a small cost, and is generally considered by non -domestic long video platforms to rely on a "explosion" relying on a large amount of resources. What's more important is that in the environment where long video platforms are cultivated, "explosive models" can bring traffic, but it may not be able to bring imagination.

"Menghua Lu" has confirmed this. Under the related topics of "Menghua Record Dajie Yingli", some netizens bluntly said: "After reading Menghua Lu, the membership renewal is canceled."

Prior to "Menghua Lu", Aiyouteng had countless "explosive experiences". To some extent, this also caused the path dependence of the domestic long video platform.

On one side is a explosion full of uncertainty, and on the other side is a more and more smart member. For the domestic long video platform, whether or not in or retreating, the sword of the Damores is destined to be destined to be destined to be destined to make every move. Under the eyes of the public and investors.

Look at the value of long videos: short -term view reduction, long -term view of content

At the moment when the domestic long video platform collectively passed the winter, Naifei outside the ocean also experienced a "collective semming" from learners.

Due to the slowdown in performance growth and the pressure of cost, Naiti's anxiety has been reflected in the stock price that has fallen into the stock price. As of the time of publication, Naifei's stock price has fallen by nearly 70 %, and the current market value is only 77.69 billion US dollars.

In the latest statement of response to layoffs, the Naifei spokesman Bao Nguyen also said: "We must make adjustments to keep costs consistent with slower revenue growth."

In the remarks of singing and declining Naifei, people ignore that Nai Fei and the domestic "You Aiteng" is essentially two completely different stages of development. Naifei has crossed the stage of local development and entered global competition; and the domestic long video platform is still in the stage of upgrading and existing in the local market.

In this way, it is not fair to assert that the failure of Naifei's long video business model from a financial report with a slowdown in the growth rate is not fair.

From the perspective of valuation, the business model of self -made content is an important promoter to drive Naiti's stock price. After 2017, Naiti's valuation level is relatively stable as a whole. In 2019, with the launch of Disney's streaming media platform, Disney+, the popularity of the external competition pattern has caused the market to worry about Naiti, which has also led to the decline in the level of valuation levels. The valuation returns to the conventional level again.

The stock price fell sharply, mainly because the number of new users was lower than market expectations in the first quarter of 2022.

But overall, with the succession of the continuation of the explosion, the supply of new content of Naifei is still certain. In essence, through the supply of continuous and high -quality content, Naifei will promote the rise in paid and price of users. With the global strategy, the scale effect will be further displayed.

The management of Nafei also revealed at the performance exchange meeting: "Most members realize that the value we brings to them is much higher than the current price increase. We will give them more entertainment value to them and use more with more Wonderful stories, larger movies, more types of content and higher -quality programs to our members. "

In fact, this financial report is not as bad as imagined, and Nai Fei still achieves profitability in Q1 Naei. In the first quarter of 2022, Nafei revenue was US $ 7.868 billion, an increase of 9.8%year -on -year. The net profit in the first quarter was 1.6 billion US dollars, and the earnings per share were US $ 3.53, which was higher than the analyst's expected $ 2.89.

Obviously, when mobile games and short videos have set off the heat out of the sea, there is a big gap with foreign giants.

Taking iQiyi and Nafei as a reference, the two are about 6 times the gap between the revenue; in terms of the scale of paid users, Nai Fei is 2.2 times that of iQiyi. From the perspective of market value, the stock price trend has been polarized since the listing of the two. At present, the market value of Naifei has reached 21 times that of iQiyi.

When the Sino -US streaming giants stepped into the same rivers of "reduction", look at the value of the domestic long video platform. Content production efficiency, realize the loss of losses, and continue to pay attention to You Aiteng's dynamics at this point.

In the long run, the quality rate of content and output is still an important incremental space.

It is attributed to a word, that is, "Ai You Teng Mang" needs to set up its own "Growth Flying Wheel": to produce more high -quality content with flexible content investment strategies -attract more paid users with high -quality content -use more use more More paid users promote revenue growth. "

Gong Yu once spit the film and television industry is a "poor temple rich monk" business. Various people have made a lot of money on this industrial chain, but only the platform is losing money, which reflects that it is a domestic long video player. "Platform thinking" is greater than "content thinking".

Back to the explosion of "Menghua Record", at least it sounded the alarm bell supplying high -quality content supply to the domestic long video platform shrouded in pessimism. While everyone is "Gu Pan Shenghui", for love and excellence that is still eager to make profits, they still look forward to the next "Menghua Record".

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