In June, the manufacturing PMI return to the expansion range to promote economic growth still needs to activate internal vivid energy

On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) in June was 50.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The non -manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 54.7%and 54.1%, respectively, higher than 6.9 and 5.7 percentage points last month, and all rose to the expansion range, showing that the economic recovery trend continued to improve.

"On the whole, the current economy is at the fastest period of restoration. On the one hand, the smooth flow of logistics has driven the delivery time and production status of suppliers significantly. The business activity index rebounded sharply. "Wen Bin, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank, told reporters of the Securities Daily that promoting the economy from nature to the vivid can be activated from nature, which may require further care of policies.

The prosperity of the manufacturing industry continues to expand

In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, and returned to the expansion range after a three -month contraction. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 13 industries PMI is located in the expansion range. The manufacturing prosperity continues to expand, and positive factors continue to accumulate.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the return range of the manufacturing PMI index in June reflects that domestic manufacturing activities are accelerating the recovery. The first is that the epidemic is gradually controlled, the economic activity is restored, and the demand is recovered. The industrial chain supply chain has created conditions for the resumption of the restoration of manufacturing activities; the third is the toughness of the industrial system. The domestic industrial system is complete, the industrial chain is complete, there are many market entities, and the capacity of production capacity is strong.

Data show that in the sub -item indicators, the production index and the new order index are 52.8%and 50.4%, respectively, higher than the 3.1 and 2.2 percentage points of the previous month, both rose to the expansion range.

"From the perspective of the sub -item indicators, domestic demand recovers, the new order index expands, the company's inventory is passively exfoliated, and the initiative to increase the willingness to replenish the inventory of raw materials. Essence

In June, the purchase price index and the factory price index of the main raw materials were 52.0%and 46.3%, respectively, below 3.8 and 3.2 percentage points of last month, respectively, and continued to refresh the lowest level this year.

In Wen Bin's view, in this case, the pressure of input inflation will be weakened accordingly, and domestic stability and protection will continue to be strengthened. The State Council has repeatedly emphasized that maintaining economic operations in a reasonable range is to stabilize employment and prices. It is expected that PPIs will decline from the previous month in June, and the year -on -year increase will fall from 6.4%of the previous month to about 6.1%.

It is worth noting that the data shows that the non -manufacturing business activity index in June was 54.7%, which was higher than 6.9 percentage points last month, and the two consecutive months rose significantly for two consecutive months.

"Non -manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both the service industry and the construction industry have improved significantly." Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter that the service industry pmi recovered 7.2 percentage points to 54.3%. Large industry prosperity is rising; the construction industry PMI rises by 4.4 percentage points to 56.6%, or the measures for steady growth are gradually landing and real estate drags weakening.

Fiscal and monetary policy has room for power

At present, my country's economic trend throughout the year is at a critical node. Although the manufacturing industry continues to recover in June, 49.3%of companies still reflect insufficient orders. Weak market demand is still the main problem facing the current manufacturing industry.

"Looking forward to the future, with the release of consumption and investment demand after the epidemic, and the continuous reflection of the effect of steady growth policy, the manufacturing and non -manufacturing PMI index will remain in the expansion range in July." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, "" A reporter from the Securities Daily said that next, macro policies will also make efforts in the direction of steady growth. This year, the overall price situation is gentle and controllable, and the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate has increased. In the future, the fiscal and monetary policy will have sufficient space.

Zhou Maohua believes that the manufacturing industry will accelerate the recovery mainly, and the demand will be heated; the supply chain of logistics and industrial chain is unblocked; the domestic product guarantees and financial support policies are effectively reduced to effectively reduce the burden of manufacturing production costs; overseas demand has maintained expansion as a whole Essence

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that in terms of the real economy, it is expected that the major macroeconomic data in June is expected to further go on the basis of May. Macro policies will also provide more strong support for the real economy. In terms of overseas factors, the main economic manufacturing PMI is located above the Rongyu Line. The new export orders in June will be reached new high since May of 2021. It is expected that the export amount will remain at a high level year -on -year in June.

In terms of non -manufacturing PMI, Zhou Maohua said that the service industry has a strong rebound and the public willingness to travel; coupled with the domestic introduction of policies to increase transportation, tourism, catering and other industries, it is expected that the service industry will be further enhanced.

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