China's A -shares ended in the first half of the year, where will it go in the second half of the year?

China News Agency, Beijing, June 30 (Reporter Chen Kangliang) On the last trading day of the first half of 2022, China A shares fluttered. The main stock index rose in all. Among them At 3400 points.

As of the close of the day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was reported at 3398 points, an increase of 1.1%to the transaction of 510.3 billion yuan (RMB, the same below); 1.52%.

Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the new coronary pneumonia and the decline in overseas markets, the A -share market has fluctuated significantly. The Shanghai index is presented in the overall pattern of suppressing and then. A bright independence market still came out, especially in May and June, a significant rebound. In the situation of "sad clouds" in the European and American markets, it reflected strong toughness.

On the whole, as of 3 pm on the 30th of Beijing time, the Shanghai Index fell more than 6%in the first half of the year. In the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by more than 14%. The Nikkei 225 index fell more than 8%, and the South Korean comprehensive index fell more than 21%.

From the perspective of Huang Cendong, an analyst of Guojin Securities, since May, the A -share market has performed more tough than overseas, mainly because China's economic and policy cycle is more favorable. Overseas central banks have to increase interest rate hikes under the pressure of high inflation. In order to control inflation expectations, the risk of economic "hard landing" may increase at the cost of economic recession. China's policy is "dominated by me", and currency and fiscal policies are actively developing. With the control of the epidemic, the focus of the policy has shifted from "epidemic prevention and control" to "stable economy". The gradually strengthening economic growth has led the capital risk appetite. Secondly, the RMB exchange rate entered the two -way fluctuation range after a round of rapid derogation in April, and gradually stabilized the recovery, which also driven A shares to increase the attractiveness of funds. Thirdly, the major A -share stock indexes are more attractive than the major overseas equity markets such as the US stocks. The lower valuations make A shares maintain a certain toughness in the fluctuations of the peripheral market.

In response to the trend in the second half of the year, most analysts are optimistic.东莞证券分析师费小平表示，A股上半年的调整在于内外部因素冲击导致，也是消化之前市场持续上涨的估值压力，随着市场回调幅度和时间逐步累积，下行压力也有所减弱，特别是对于The digestion of negative factors is sufficient. Although there are still pressures such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes and the decline in the performance growth rate of listed companies in the second quarter, with the accelerated efforts of China's official growth policy, the steady recovery of China's economic face, and the high -quality development of the capital market After continuous advancement, the "policy bottom" is gradually consolidated to gradually step out of the "market bottom", ushered in the opportunity to stabilize a stable rebound, and the market restoration in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to.

Qin Peijing, an analyst of CITIC Securities, also holds a similar point of view. Qin Peiying believes that since this year, Chinese A shares have been impacted by the sudden "black swan" incident in the internal and external "black swans". The market has a concentrated concentration and severe overtaking. With the effective prevention and control of the domestic epidemic, the policy co -control supports the rapid repair of the economy, the external risk pressure is relieved, and the A -share slow cattle are over.

Guohai Securities Analyst Hu Guopeng also said that the Chinese economy will stabilize in the second half of the year. In the process of liquidity of currency, A shares may interpret the performance of US stocks from 2011 to 2012, that is, after the European debt crisis jumps out of the "golden pit "This time, A shares are the impact of the" new crown pneumonia epidemic and Ukraine crisis ". The adjustment of valuation has been fully adjusted. The follow -up economy is stable, the domestic liquidity is positive. Good investment opportunities.

However, Hu Guopeng reminded that the risks such as the global and domestic epidemic exceeding expectations, the deterioration of the relationship between the major powers, and the speed of industrial policies are less than expected.

(Source: China News Network)

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