Self -top?The core PCE in the United States increased by 4.7%year -on -year, and fell for three consecutive months, but consumer expenditure continued to slow down

On June 30, local time, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index after removing fluctuating foods and energy prices in May in May increased by 4.7%year -on -year. It was a new low since November last year. %, At the same time, this is also the third consecutive month that the data has declined. In May, the core PCE price index rose 0.3%month -on -month, which was the same as last month.

In May, the overall PCE price index, including food and energy prices, increased by 6.3%year -on -year, which was the same as the data in April. From the previous month, the data increased by 0.6%in May. Although it was 0.7%lower than the market expectations, it increased from 0.2%in April.

After the data was announced, the opening of the three major stock indexes of the US stocks fell collectively. As of press time, the Dow fell 1.62%to 30525.68 points; the S & P 500 index fell 1.86%to 3747.93 points; the Na index fell 2.60%to 10886.90 points.

Picture source: Futu Niu Niu

The core PCE price index is the Fed's most important inflation indicator, which directly affects the Fed's decision -making. From the latest data, inflation has a trend of cooling, but the value is still at a high level similar to the 1980s.

At the same time, the data announced at the same time include American personal income and expenditure data. Personal income in the United States increased by 0.5%month -on -month, consistent with last month. However, in terms of expenditure, the data has declined. Personal consumption expenditure in the United States increased by 0.2%month -on -month, and in April, the values ​​of April were 0.6%. This is the first time that the growth rate of expenditure has been lower than the growth rate of income since December last year. After the inflation was adjusted, the expenditure in May actually decreased by 0.4%month -on -month, which was the first time this year.

Consumer expenditure is one of the main driving forces in the US economy. Its low growth means that consumers face the high inflation and continuous increase in interest rates, which has reduced unnecessary expenditures. The demand began to show signs of softening. The economy may be currently being currently. Slow.

Since the United States has continued to raise interest rates, the market has been worried that the Fed will suppress demand in the process of fighting inflation, which has led to economic recession.

The American consumer confidence index announced last week is at the lowest point of history, which is enough to see consumers' concerns about economic decline. Although the labor market is strong, it also shows some weak early signs. According to the newly announced data, the number of unemployed funds (10,000) was requested at the beginning of the week on June 25, which was higher than the general estimated 22.8.

At the European Central Bank's annual monetary policy forum held on Wednesday local time, Fed Chairman Powell still insisted that although the "indeed existence" of the Fed's tightening policy has slowed the economic slowdown, it is the biggest mistake to fail to restore price stability. Powell believes that the US economy is strong enough, the financial conditions of families and enterprises are stable, and the economic recession should be avoided.

At the same time, Powell has also acknowledged that in recent months, in the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, the task of avoiding economic recession to achieve "soft landing" has become more challenging.

He said that the Fed hopes to slow down the growth of the US economy to a level that can reduce inflation but does not lead to decline.

As of press time, the Zhishang Institute's "Fedwatch) tools show that the futures market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve's 75 -basis point next month is about 80%.

Daily Economic News

- END -