The risk of "hard landing" in the US economy has increased the US stocks in the second half of the year may fall into the "recession transaction"

The risk of "hard landing" in the US economy has increased the US stocks in the second half of the year may fall into the "recession transaction"

Since the beginning of this year, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has triggered global energy tension and food crisis. The high domestic inflation and the Federal Reserve have frequently raised interest rate hikes to change liquidity expectations, and US stocks have increased.

At present, two of the three major stock indexes have entered a technology bear market. Whether U.S. stocks have entered a decline have become the topic of investors' close attention.

The three major indexes of US stocks

Averaged over 14% during the year

The three major US stocks have weakened after the beginning of the year. As of the close of June 28 local time, the Dow Jones Index fell 14.84%during the year, the S & P 500 index fell 19.82%, and the Nasdaq index fell 28.53%. The largest market value of Apple has fallen by more than 20%this year, and Tesla, the leading stock of new energy vehicles, has fallen by more than 30%during the year.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily, said that the adjustment of U.S. stocks mainly stems from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which has a great impact on liquidity. The sharp decline in U.S. technology stocks shows that the bubbles of science and technology stocks raised by the Fed in the past few years have begun to show signs of rupture. U.S. stock adjustments have prompted global capital to re -allocate assets.

Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that "the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to the energy crisis and the food crisis, coupled with the expansion of demand caused by the global water release in the previous period, which has led to the most severe inflation situation in decades. Beginning last year, the global central bank has entered the cycle of interest rate hikes, and its liquidity has begun to tighten. The Federal Reserve raised interest rate hikes to break the stock market bubble, causing the global stock market to decline. The US stock market faces a double blow of interest rate hikes and economic recession. The risk of decline has not been released. ","

Zheng Lei, chief economist of Samoyed Cloud Technology Group, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that a big decline in US stocks was a normal market response. As the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the capital will accelerate the withdrawal from the stock market and invest in assets with small risks and large profit margins.

Recently, US stocks have continued to decline, which is an inevitable response after its continued rise in the past ten years. After the financial crisis in 2008, from 2009 to 2021, the three major US stocks index showed a significant increase. During the Dow Jones Index period, a cumulative increase of 314.05%, the S & P 500 index rose 427.67%, the Nasdaq index rose 892.05% Essence

Deng Haiqing analyzed that after the financial crisis, the Fed has implemented three rounds of quantitative easing to promote the stock market rise. From 2015 to 2018, the Federal Reserve ended the quantitative easing policy, but the US economic indicators looked good and supported US stocks to continue to rise. Since 2019, the US economy has changed, and the Fed has re -entered the interest rate cut cycle and once again supports U.S. stocks with super loose liquidity. After the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve has adopted the policy of unlimited quantitative easing and financial deficit monetization, leading to a flood of liquidity and high asset price bubbles.

Zheng Lei believes that the market's market in 2009 and 2021 benefited from the stimulus of the Federal Reserve's rescue market and the "big water release" policy, which is an obvious liquid bull market. At present, the liquidity of U.S. stocks has been accelerated. With the decrease in stock funds, it is difficult to support the stock price.

American economy "hard landing"

The possibility reaches 80 %

After the US Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points in June, the logic of US stock trading quickly switched from high inflation and rapid tightening to weak growth. Investors' concerns about economic recession significantly heated up.

In June, the US consumer confidence index fell to the lowest point since 16 months. The consumer confidence index of World Enterprise Research has fallen by 4.5 to 98.7 this month, the lowest since February 2021. The Economic Cooperation and Development Organization released on June 8 The economic outlook report reduced the growth expectations of multiple economies. It is expected that the economic growth rates in the United States and the United Kingdom in 2022 were 2.5%and 3.6%, and the economic growth rate of the euro zone was 2.6%.

The pessimistic forecast believes that the growth of American GDP will turn in the future. The latest research report of Soochow Securities mentioned that according to the Fed's interest rate hike track, the probability of "soft landing" in the US economy is only 10%, and the possibility of "hard landing" is about 80%. "Hard landing" means that in the next ten quarters, at least one quarter GDP increases below -1%.

The latest research report of CICC shows that under the common effect of high bases, high costs, high inventory, high interest rates and weak demand, US economic growth and corporate profitability have been slowed down, and it will continue to fall, and there is quite a possibility of recession.

Since the beginning of this year, the Fed ’s interest rate hike has continued to accelerate, with 25 basis points and 50 basis points in March and May this year. On June 15, local time, the Fed announced a rate hike of 75 basis points, the largest rate hike since 1994.

Yang Delong believes that the risk of decline in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed's current interest rate hikes are paid for the loose monetary policy in the past two years. A series of incidents have occurred in the past few months, especially geopolitical conflicts that push high gasoline prices have made the US economy "soft landing" more challenging. Previous data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the United States CPI increased by 8.6%year -on -year in May, a new high of 40 years. The Federal Reserve either accelerate the rate hikes to resist inflation, or reduce interest rate hikes to maintain economic growth.

Deng Haiqing believes that the current signs of economic recession in the United States are relatively obvious, and its vitality is not as powerful as the outside world thinks. The current high inflation in the United States is not only due to oversupply of currencies, excess demand, but also supply chain factors and geopolitical factors. Taking advantage of the economic recession has not happened, the inflation has been contained through interest rate hikes, and then concentrated on the decline in governance. This is the best strategy and helpless choice. Once the US economy enters the stagnation, monetary policy will make a dilemma. However, the effect of the Fed in governing inflation may be more effort. By the end of the year or next year, there is a high probability that it cannot avoid stagnation quagmires. "In the short term, the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike is conducive to the regtening US dollar credit, the US dollar index rises, the euro, yen, etc. have depreciated, and the US dollar hegemony is strengthened. From the long run, the current China -US economy and the monetary cycle dislocation, the US interest rate hike China is loose, the United States The recovery of China, the Sino -US stock market has shown a situation of rising east and west. China's capital market has an increase in international capital, and the proportion of China's economy in the world will continue to rise. "Deng Haiqing further said.

In the second half of the year

Will US stocks fall into a "recession"?

Looking forward to the trend of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year, CITIC Securities predicts that it will continue to fall into a "recession transaction": First of all, from the fundamental point of view, the recent US consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest history, and the personal savings rate has fallen to the level of the financial crisis; this year Since the second quarter, many large American companies have announced layoffs or suspending recruitment. At the same time, high oil prices will impact the cost of cost and production capacity of the enterprise, and the upward of food prices will further squeeze the consumption of the residential department. Secondly, from the perspective of U.S. stock valuations, the dynamic valuations of the S & P and the Nasdaq Index are 18.0 times and 25.4 times, respectively, in the last round of the Fed's currency tightening period of 63.2%and 97.5%of historical divisions, it has not yet been yet not yet. Adjust. Third, under the circumstances where financial conditions continue to tighten, institutions and retail investors cannot increase investment in US stocks. It is expected that the "recession" of US stocks will be the theme in the second half of the year.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and Director of the Institute of Research, told reporters that considering that at this stage, the predicament of the US inflation pressure, the dilemma of the supply chain interruption and the shortage of labor, and the tightening of liquidity to further suppress consumption. Enterprises The performance decline pressure is high, and the Nasdaq index is expected to have room for decline.

Deng Haiqing believes that "the decline in the decline in U.S. stocks and index will continue. First of all, the Fed began to raise interest rates to tighten liquidity and directly strike the high valuation stocks. The profit risk of Internet companies also decline; in the end, the United States promotes the decourse of the industrial chain, and the market size of the Internet giants will be limited, which will form a long -term adverse effect. "

Recently, a report issued by French Industrial Bank showed that the US bear market may last longer. The bank's US stock director Manish Kabra wrote: Since the beginning of this year, US stock investors have maintained a mentality of de -risk, heavy defense and lowered valuation. If the Fed fails to control inflation, then the US economy will fall into a stagflation scene like the 1970s, and it may promote the S & P 500 index to fall from the current level by 33%to 2525 points.

Zhang Yidong's team in Xingye Securities pointed out in his research report that the U.S. stock investment clock in the second half of the year is in "stagflation", which is difficult to get rid of Xiong's urban area. The common risk of inflation in the second half of the United States and Europe still comes from the impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy prices and food prices. At the same time, the United States holds mid -term elections in the second half of the year, and it is necessary to be careful of "black swans" with high inflation. Spiral. The U.S. economy will suffer a greater "stagnation" pressure in the second half of the year.

Reporter Zhang Ying Learner Ren Shi Bi Chu Lijun

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