The central bank's reverse repurchase and increased volume care at the end of half a year of liquidity believes that there will still be a reduction in the second half of the year.

30jun

Wen | Liu Qi

On June 29, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") issued an announcement. In order to maintain the stable liquidity at the end of half a year, the 7 -day reverse repurchase operation was carried out on that day. In view of the expiration of 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the central bank's inverse repurchase caliber achieved a net investment of 90 billion yuan. It is worth mentioning that from June 24th, the central bank has increased its inverse repurchase. The three working days from June 24 to June 28 will carry out reverse repurchase 60 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan, and 110 billion yuan. Yuan. "Entering mid -to -late June, market liquidity demand has risen, and the demand for cross -seater liquidity in financial institutions has increased." Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter. Generally, due to the June, in June, it was in June. At the middle of the year, considering the impact of factors such as tax payment and time assessment, the liquidity demand will increase in mid -to -late June. The central bank will increase the impact of the market factors through moderately increased the scale of liquidity. Therefore, it is normal for the recent increase in the scale of reverse repurchase investment. However, in June, the fiscal expenditure is usually a large month. As the fiscal expenditure increases and local debt funds are allocated in place, it will also provide support for liquidity, and the market liquidity supply and demand will remain stable as a whole. According to data from the National Banking Interbank Borrowing Center, DR007 (7 -day repurchase interest rates for pledges with interest rate bonds as pledged bonds) have risen from June 24 from June 23 to June 28. It was 1.6135%, 1.7978%, 1.9536%, and 1.9698%. As of 17:00 on June 29, the weighted rate of DR007 was 2.0565%. Although it continues to rise, it is still under the current 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate (2.1%). From the perspective of Shibor (the inter -bank inter -bank inter -bank interbank industry), SHIBOR reported at 1.372%overnight on June 29, the lowest in the month, and its 5 -day average and 10 -day average value was 1.424%and 1.4247%, which was also at a lower level. Essence Show the inter -bank liquidity is still relatively abundant. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told the Securities Daily that from the recent performance of the main interest rate of the currency market, although the liquidity disturbance factor has caused the market capital to converge, the main liquidity indicators still revolve around policy interest rate fluctuations. It is stable on the central bank's reasonable and plenty of liquidity, so the impact of disturbance is limited. Liang Si predicts that the liquidity as a whole in July will remain stable and there is no factor that significantly affects liquidity supply and demand, but changes in fiscal deposits may still cause certain disturbances on liquidity, especially the impact of tax payment factors. In addition, on July 15th, there will be 100 billion MLF (convenient for medium -term borrowing). It is expected that the sequels will be performed due, and it will not have a significant impact on liquidity. On the whole, it is expected that the liquidity in July is mainly based on small operations. Looking forward to the second half of the year, Liang Si believes that the liquidity environment will continue to be reasonable and abundant, and there will be no obvious liquidity gap. On the basis of maintaining the liquidity environment, continue to perform the "peak -cutting valley" operation through the open market operation to maintain the stability of liquidity supply and demand and provide stable expectations for market entities. On January 17 this year, the central bank lowered 7 days of reverse repurchase operating interest rate to 2.1%and has been maintained to this day. Is there room for further reduction in the second half of the year? "Domestic prices are gentle and controllable, the financial system is stable, and the balance of payments is balanced. my country's monetary policy has maintained independence and still has room for reduction and interest rate cuts. From a historical perspective, the inverse repurchase interest rate is basically accompanied by the same adjustment of the MLF interest rate. However, at the current point of view, the long and short factor that affects interest rate adjustments is relatively balanced. Comprehensive economic financing costs. In Liang Si's opinion, whether interest rates change should be comprehensively judged according to economic operation, market operation, and corporate recovery. The space exists, but it is necessary to balance the needs of various subjects and the impact of changes in the external environment.

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