The risk aversion function "does not decrease" in the second half of the year is still expected to strengthen

Author:Securities daily Time:2022.06.30

30jun

Wen | Wang Ning

Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of geopolitical risks and high overseas inflation, the function of risk aversion and value preservation and value -added has been further prominent. "Securities Daily" reporter combed and found that as of now, international gold prices have exceeded $ 2,000/ounce twice during the year, and time nodes are similar to inflation high and US interest rate hike nodes. In an interview with reporters, some institutions said that during the year, the international gold price exceeded two $ 2,000/ounce, reflecting the market's inadequate confidence in the United States' interest rate hikes to suppress inflation. Based on multiple factors, gold still has configuration value in the second half of the year, and it is expected to perform well. The high price of inflation has been pushing the gold price this year, the European and American economic recovery has not been expected, and the high inflation of overseas markets has caused major European and American central banks to raise interest rates sharply, and the rapid tightening of monetary policy has been heating up. As of now, the Fed has raised interest rates three times in the year. Many institutions predict that the United States may raise interest rates seven times this year. The gold with the strongest financial attributes in commodity assets shows a downward trend. The reporter found that international gold prices stood on March 8th and April 18 this year on the $ 2,000/ounce mark, creating a phased high of 2078.8 US dollars/ounces, 2003 US dollars/ounces. In this regard, many institutions believe that this is further prominent due to the golden avoidance and value preservation and value -added function of gold. Cao Shanshan, a senior researcher at COFCO Futures, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that gold is the most financial attribute commodity, which is greatly affected by inflation. During the year, overseas market inflation was high, geopolitical risks continued, and gold's anti -inflation attributes and risk aversion attributes were further stimulated. However, due to the rate hike measures taken by the United States, the price of gold fell after the rise. Jinxin Futures precious metal analyst Wang Zhiping added to reporters that gold as anti -inflation assets was greatly affected by inflation. From a long period of perspective, the price trend of gold, crude oil and copper is strong. The reporter found that the international gold price exceeded the $ 2,000/ounce mark for the first time in the year, on March 8th, as early as March 16, the first interest rate hike in the United States (only 25 basis points in interest rate hikes). After a period of callback, the international gold price was 4 The "second breakthrough" was achieved on the 18th, and the second interest rate hike in the United States was on May 4 (50 basis points in interest rate hikes). Since then, international gold prices have been running below $ 2,000/ounce. In this regard, Bank of China Global Marketing believes that in the early stage, investors have doubts the effect of controlling inflation through interest rate hikes, and international gold prices have not fallen sharply after their first interest rate hikes; while secondary interest rate hikes, the Fed's unconditional confrontation with inflation is determined The international gold price began to call back and run below the $ 2,000/ounce mark. The determination of the Fed's unconditional confrontation to inflation may affect market expectations to a certain extent, thereby forming a downward pressure on international gold prices. Investors are still willing to configure gold for risk hedging. East Asia Qianhai Securities believes that the exacerbation of supply and demand imbalances is the main cause of high inflation in the United States. Although the Federal Reserve has repeatedly raised interest rates, it is expected to have a limited impact of anti -anti -inflation. In the context of the high insurance assets in the United States, gold will welcome Come to the time of excellent configuration. According to the World Gold Association data, in the market environment of high inflation (greater than 3%), the name return of gold is about 11.19%. Some institutions believe that the price of gold is still expected to strengthen. Although the current international gold price has not exceeded the high point of the year, it is still operating above the $ 1,800/ounce mark; as of press time, the New York Commercial Exchange (COMEX) The main force of the Gold in August has been closed at 1817 US dollars in August. /ounce. Talking about the trend in the second half of the year, most institutions believe that international gold prices may still be strong. Huang Tianchang, the Zhongyan Futures Marketing Department, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the main factors that affect the current trend of international gold prices are still the next measure of interest rate hikes in the United States. If the interest rate hike is large, it will form a certain suppression of gold prices. However, the current overseas market is still in the stage of high inflation. In the context of high inflation and high interest rate hike expectations, investors are not optimistic about overseas economic recovery. Therefore, gold as a hard currency as a hard currency will be highlighted again. "The macro factors that affect international gold prices include global inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Among them, the high inflation environment has created favorable conditions for international gold prices, but central banks of various countries will be more tightened in monetary policy." Wang Zhiping said. "The international gold price stood twice to the $ 2,000/ounce mark in the year, mainly due to geopolitical risks directly pushing market risks, increased risk -aversion demand, and international gold prices rose sharply." Wang Junzheng, the Zhongyan Futures Market Department, told reporters that overseas High inflation in the market will still be supported by the development of international gold prices. Some analysts believe that the current European and American central banks have raised interest rates in order to fight high inflation, which will put pressure on gold prices. At the same time, the decline in the price of commodities in the near future has also lowered inflation expectations, or it will have a sharp impact on international gold prices. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices may maintain a trend of interval fluctuations.