How do you short the European stock market to the European stock market for $ 10.5 billion?

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter He Liuying reported that in 2010, the European sovereign debt crisis broke out. Bridge Water Fund fell madly on the basis of successful prediction, and its Pure Alpha Fund created 45%of the yield against the trend.

In 2022, the world's largest hedge fund once again "started" in Europe. On June 23, Qiaoshui bet 10.5 billion US dollars (about RMB 70.3 billion in RMB) as short European stocks.

欧洲空头信息跟踪网站Break POINT数据显示，桥水做空的公司包括荷兰半导体设备供应商ASML、法国制药巨头赛诺菲、能源公司道达尔，德国软件公司思爱普等，涉及科技、医药、能源、 Multiple industries such as finance. Bridge water has a short position of their short positions exceeding $ 500 million.

Yan Zhajun, an analyst of China -Thailand International Strategy, said to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "In addition to seeing the European stock market, this bridge may also be part of the company's investment portfolio hedging strategy. At the same time as stocks, some stocks sell for other stocks. "He believes that it is not possible to determine which kind of tendency.

Last week, in an interview with the media, Greg Jensen, the chief investment officer of Qiaoshui co -investor, said that compared with the rise in the past ten years, the sales of stocks are still small, and the European and American markets may still have greater fluctuations in the market. Essence Regarding Qiaoshui betting short European stocks, Greg Jensen refused to make comments.

European economic prospects are not optimistic

Compared with the $ 5.7 billion previously disclosed, the amount of the betting of the bridge is doubled directly. At the same time, considering that the small position with a small amount is not disclosed, the total short position of the bridge water may be larger.

Wei Hongxu, a researcher at the Anbang Think Tank Macro Economic Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald: "From the perspective of its disclosure, the bridge water is basically the component stock of the European STOXX50 index, which reflects that the bridge water to the European stock market is viewed as a whole. empty."

According to Wind data, at 16:00 on June 29th, Beijing time, the European StoXX50 index was reported at 3521.43 points, a decline of 18.1%since the beginning of the year. Other European stock indexes are also sluggish, the German DAX index fell 17.69%during the year, the French CAC40 index fell 15.39%during the year, and the Italian FTSE MIB index fell 19.98%.

In the opinion of CITIC Securities Chief Economist, Bridge water is short of European stocks, but it is not optimistic about European economic prospects. "Russia and Ukraine's conflict occurred at the" door of the house ", the historic Qualcomm rose, and energy tension. These problems have brought adverse factors to the European economic recovery."

According to data from the EU Statistical Bureau, the final value of the euro zone reconciled in May by 8.1%year -on -year, setting the highest level in history. At the same time as the high -rise rising, the euro zone is about to join the wave of interest rate hikes. The European Central Bank decided to terminate the purchase of net assets under its asset purchase plan from July 1st. It plans to raise a key interest rate of 25 basis points at the monetary policy conference in July and raise interest rates again in September.

This has brought greater downward pressure on the European economy. "Although the European stock market has experienced a period of down to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and high European inflation, the European Central Bank will start raising interest rates in the future and bid farewell to negative interest rates. Expressing unstable situation, "Wei Hongxu said.

On June 9, the European Central Bank made a significant decline on the forecast of growth this year and next. The expected value of GDP in 2022 was reduced from 3.7%to 2.8%, and the expected value of GDP in 2023 was reduced from the original 2.8%to 2.1%.

Yan Zhajun believes that whether the bridge water is simply empty or serving its hedging strategy, it will continue to be weak by high inflation, low growth and geographical situation.

How long is the European market?

As the world's largest hedge fund, Bridge Water Fund currently has a management scale of about $ 150 billion. According to Qiaoshui, since March 2020, its total return share ranks among the top five, which are large commodities (17%), short -term interest rates (13), nominal bonds (11%), and more short cash (6%of 6%(6%) ) And stock (5%).

It is worth pointing out that in recent years, bridges have repeatedly vacated the European market.

In 2018, Qiaoshui bet nearly $ 22 billion in a number of European companies; in 2020, Bridge water reappeared European companies, including ASML, with a short position of $ 14 billion; European and American corporate bonds have begun in April.

Wei Hongxu pointed out that the current situation is more similar to two places in 2018. One is that the Fed has entered the interest rate hike period, bringing global liquidity tensions; second, the economic growth of European economic growth is sluggish and the corporate performance is poor.

"This year's special thing is that Europe is still facing high inflation threats, increasing geographical risks brought about by Russia -Ukraine conflicts, and distorted energy supply. This means that on the one hand, the European Central Bank has to raise interest rates. On the other hand The rise of the market, the pressure of the market, the performance pressure is greater. "Wei Hongxu said.

Taking the bead of the bridge as an example, the performance report of the first quarter of 2022 released by the company showed that Daedal's net profit in the first quarter decreased by 15%to $ 4.9 billion, because the Russian liquefied natural gas development project ARCTIC LNG 2 caused Losses of $ 4.1 billion. "The reason why it is repeatedly emptied in the European market is that the long -term root is the" fragmentation "trend of the European economy, which makes it difficult for enterprise development and low market supervision efficiency. Therefore, it is easier to become a short‘ prey ’.” Wei Hongxu emphasized.

It is worth mentioning that the side of the bridge water is empty European stocks, but the other side is increasing in China. The holding report submitted by the bridge water to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in the first quarter of 2022 shows that Bridge has increased its holdings of Alibaba, Baidu, Pinduoduo, Weilai, Bilibili and other Chinese stocks.

Wei Hongxu pointed out that the stock market investment needs to consider many factors, and the macro fundamentals are one of the basic factors. "As far as the situation in China, the policy cycle and economic cycle between China and the United States are different, and the Chinese market is more independent and the European and American markets. It has enough capacity. It is an ideal market for decentralized risks. The toughness has also made many external investment institutions optimistic about investing in China. In fact, Qiaoshui has been optimistic about the Chinese market in recent years. "

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