The institution is urgent

After browsing the news a few days ago, there was a title that successfully attracted my attention: "The monkeys are playing!" Monkey Mao "daily limit, what happened?"

I have seen photovoltaic Mao, Eye Mao, Yaomao, Pig Mao, but this Monkey Mao has heard for the first time.

Clicking in, it turned out to be a new medicine for CXO. Usually, a monkey needs to be used to do experiments. Therefore, whoever accumulates has many monkeys, who can get orders, so it is called Monkey Mao.

Relevant units issued the "Announcement on the Prohibition of Wildlife Transactions", wild animal transactions may be released, and the market is worried that the price of imported monkeys may fall.

I thought it was a high -end medical industry. After a long time, it was the animal breeding industry.

This logic is actually untenable.

Not to be said that the monkeys who use the experimental medicine must ensure health, without any diseases, and no potential diseases that are not suitable for experiments. Experiments can be tracked throughout the process and check the body regularly. It is not possible to replace a monkey casually.

In the long run, monkeys are the cost of CXO companies. If it can really expand the supply, it is a good thing.

Just through this, talk about the pharmaceutical industry. At present, medical medicine has the most opportunities to grow up in the industry. Compared with photovoltaic lithium batteries, it is lower than that of photovoltaic lithium batteries. Compared with consumption, the performance growth rate is higher.

Each large industry has its own core driving factor. For example, the core driving force of photovoltaic is that the global hegemony currency needs to find the next resource carrier. The core driving force for consumption is the growth rate of residents' income level. Medical and medical care mainly depends on two points: global innovative drug prosperity cycle, and domestic medical insurance policies.

Looking at the global innovative drug prosperity cycle, you can refer to the S & P biotechnology selection industry index, and other rights. The component stocks are based on unsuccessful Biotech, and operating development depends on financing. Therefore The tightening of the currency environment will cause a sharp shrinkage of valuation.

Hong Kong stocks' Hang Seng Medical Care Index, pricing follows the international capital market, is also highly related to the S & P biotechnology index.

Both the S & P biotechnology and Hang Seng Medical and Care both appear to the top in advance. Recently, when the Nasdaq is innovative, it will no longer follow the Nasdaire decline, more like building a double bottom.

The essential reason is that the innovative drug cycle is not as miserable as the stock price response. For example, the Hang Seng Medical Index fell by 64%from June last year to April this year, but the main domestic new drugs (declared and approved by class 1, approved, for approval. Domestic enterprises independently developed) sales in sample hospitals, from 1.3 billion in 2012, 2.7 billion in 2015 to 5.3 billion in 2018, and 10.9 billion in 2021, maintaining the speed of nearly 3 years. increase.

At the same time, the revenue of the Hong Kong stocks 18A Biotechnology Company (excluding the new crown business and the Kangshino Bio) revenue for more than one year has been listed for more than one year. From 2019 to 2021, the total revenue of products was 2.9 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 11.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a two-year growth of nearly 4 times.

The first quarter performance growth rate of most A -share pharmaceutical companies also remained at a high level.

So now when we look at the valuation, the valuation is the lowest level in history whether it is the whole or the segmentation field. Because while killing the stock price, the overall performance has maintained a high growth rate. After eliminating the medical and medical theme fund, the public offerings are also near the lowest water level in history.

Let's talk about the collection.

I have summarized the economic policies in China in recent years. I need to look at the perspective of "stock and increment". Typical is the power of turning green.

In fact, we can also see the collection of the medical insurance bureau, which can also be regarded as a reform of the stock, replacing the stock with incremental capacity, and seeking higher development dramas.

In the future, the country's medical and health expenditures will be kept at a slightly higher level of income than GDP and residents. These money will only be directed to an incremental company with R & D strength and good products, instead of giving the existing company that rely on channels and sales expenses Essence

Even the reform and opening up of our country, first starting from Shenzhen and other places, and then pushed to the whole country.

Our political system determines that many times the reform is another stove, instead of directly overturning the original, after the fire in the stove next to it is boiled, replace it.

In recent years, the reform of incremental replacement and stock has shown huge effects in many industries. The sheds replaced the old town, green power replacement thermal power, new energy vehicles replaced fuel vehicles, steel supply side reforms ...

Once the stove next to it is on fire, the entire industry that is usually reforming will usher in a large round of growth cycle, and even break through its own ceiling.

Regarding the new changes in the recent collection rules, and the shabby and new establishment of the entire industry in recent years, it has been listed in the article before, so I won't go into details.

Therefore, whether it is a global innovative drug cycle or the stage of domestic policies, and combined with the current market valuation, we should not have a significant extension of the pharmaceutical and medical industry.

Interested friends, you can consider participating through the long -term fixed -cycle ETF Fund. The best fund of the company's texture is Hang Seng Medical ETF (513060, Class A code 014424 over -the -counter fund, Class C code 014425). Yaoming Biological, Stone Medicine Group, Chinese Biopharmaceuticals, JD Health, Cinda Bio, Kim Siri Bio, etc. are all heavy players in the segmented field.

For friends who want to study individual stocks, you can take a look at the low domestic rate in the equipment, and the company that has already gone to sea, or a mild blood product and other industries, as well as innovative drug companies in the science and technology board. Native

Yesterday, from the perspective of value and growth, it explained the recent market style. Today, I talk about why the large -cap stocks are strong in the near future, and the mid -digits of the ups and downs of the two cities are always much worse than the index.

Recently, although the market attention points are on the track of the trend, the hottest concept of the weekend is also the photovoltaic HJT battery, but the main line hidden in the current market is the recovery of downstream companies brought by the resumed of the epidemic.

For example, the food and beverage index is one of the representatives of this big trend.

This logic is quite smooth. Shanghai has restored the normalized nucleic acid testing of food and local governments, which have caused the impact of the epidemic on our lives, which is far less than that in March and April.

I believe that the epidemic represented by food has recovered stocks. In the third quarter, there was a recovery of operating data, but the biggest logical flaw at the current largest logic is that the valuation is not cheap.

The current rolling price -earnings ratio of the downstream index of the CSI is 32.5. Except for 20 and 21 years, there is no such valuation water level at other times.

The epidemic in the eight -class inhabitants has resumed stocks, and airports, hotels, tourism, civil aviation, etc. The stock prices are higher than before the epidemic.

Because these companies are all dilemma reversal, it is the type of game type that A shares like very much, very much. Isn't the stock trading just waiting for others to lift the sedan? Everyone is such an internal roll thought, and the sedan seeds can't sink.

Then when the sedan was about to come up, many people looked at the trend. The sedan can also fly.

Recently, it has rebounded sharply, and the index continuously regulates for several days. I think that the institutions of the A -share viewing trend cannot be able to continue to chase high, rushing to rush before the end of this trend.

The more anxious, the more you ca n’t keep up with the index.

This is the same as the liquidity crisis caused by panic declines at the end of April, but it just happens.

Therefore, the market will repeat it, but it will not be simply repeated, which means that the market is repeating that human nature is always pessimistic and excessive optimism. But the phenomenon caused by this law will not remain unchanged.

Of course, this also extended an investment genre. For example, other genres pay attention to the error itself, thinking that a phenomenon is wrong, to correct the error, but this genre is concerned about the conditions of the error -humanity, so it is only crazy in crazy Shit.

For example, at the end of March, everyone thinks that China stocks will go down in the future. This is a typical falling common sense. At the end of April, many people began to discuss the National Games. This is also pessimistic.

Oh another thing, Tencent's major shareholders reduced their holdings. In the future, Tencent's stocks will not lack supply.

Tencent I have also analyzed before that the recovery of fundamentals may need to be postponed until the end of the third quarter or even the fourth quarter. And the major environment is the end of the cooperation model of foreign capital (GP) and domestic talents (LP) in the previous globalization.

- END -