Central bank survey: 54.6%of residents expect house prices to be "basically unchanged" in the next quarter

China Economic Net, Beijing, June 29. According to the central bank's website, the second quarter of 2022 issued a questionnaire survey report on the urban reserve households, 54.6%of residents expect house prices to be "basically unchanged" next quarter.

Investigation and Analysis

In the second quarter of 2022

In the second quarter of 2022, the People's Bank of China conducted a survey of 20,000 households in cities in 50 cities across the country. The results showed that:

one

Income feeling index

The revenue experience index this quarter was 44.5%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous season. Among them, 10.8%of residents believe that income is "increase", a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 67.6%of residents believe that the income is "basically the same", a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from the previous season. 21.7%of the residents believe that the income is "reduced". It increased by 7.6 percentage points over the previous season. The income confidence index was 45.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous season.

two

Employment experience index

The employment experience index this season was 35.6%, a decrease of 6.9 percentage points from the previous season. Among them, 10.1%of residents believe that "the situation is good and employment is easy", 44.3%of residents believe that "general", 45.6%of residents believe that "the situation is severe, difficulty in employment" or "unsatisfactory". The employment expectation index was 44.5%, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points from the previous season.

three

Price and house prices expectations

For the next quarter, the price expectation index was 60.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. Among them, 27.6%of residents expect prices to "rise" in the next quarter, 50.8%of residents expect "basically unchanged", 9.4%of residents are expected to "decline", 12.1%of residents are "not sure".

For house prices in the next quarter, 16.2%of residents are expected to "rise", 54.6%of residents expect "basically unchanged", 16.0%of residents are expected to "decline", and 13.2%of residents are "not sure."

Four

Will consumption, savings and investment willingness

Residents who tend to "more consumption" account for 23.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous quarter; 58.3%of the residents who tend to "more savings", an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter; the tendency to "more investment" Residents accounted for 17.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. The first three investment methods that residents prefer are: "banks, securities, insurance companies' wealth management products", "fund trust products" and "stocks". The proportion of residents who choose these three investment methods account for 45.1%, 22.4%and 15.5%.

When asking the project that prepares to increase expenditure in the next three months, the proportion of residents from high to low is: education (28.1%), medical care (27.4%), large commodity (18.7%), social culture and entertainment (18.1 %), House purchase (16.9%), tourism (15.2%), insurance (13.9%).

Preparation description:

The urban storage household questionnaire survey is a quarterly survey system established by the People's Bank of China since 1999. Each season surveyed in 50 (large, medium, small) survey cities and 400 bank outlets each randomly selected 50 storeders, and a total of 20,000 storeders nationwide were used as the survey target. The survey content includes four aspects: overall judgment, savings and liabilities, consumption status, and basic situations of stores in the economic operation. The index in the survey report of the urban storage households is calculated by the diffusion index method, that is, the proportion of each option is calculated, and the weight of each option is given different weights (given the "good/growth" option weight of 1, and the "general/constant" option is given to the "general/constant" options The weight is 0.5, and the weight of the "difference/drop" option is 0), and the proportion of each option is multiplied by the corresponding weight, and then the final index is added. The range of all indexes is between 0 and 100%. The index is more than 50%, reflecting that the indicator is in a good or expanded state; below 50%, reflecting the indicator is in a different time or contraction state.

The main index calculation method is briefly introduced as follows:

1. Price expectation index: reflect the diffusion index of residents' price judgment next quarter. The calculation method of this index is to deduct the number of residents who choose "unsatisfactory", and then calculate the proportion of residents who believe that the price of prices will "rise" and "basically unchanged" next quarter, and then give the weight 1 and 0.5 after the weight of 1 and 0.5, respectively. inferred.

2. Revenue experience index: reflect the diffusion index of residents for current income. The calculation method of this index is to calculate the proportion of residents who consider the "increase" and "basically unchanged" income this quarter, and then give up and obtain the weight of 1 and 0.5, respectively.

3. Increase confidence index: the diffusion index reflecting residents' confidence in future income. The calculation method of this index is to deduct the number of residents who choose "difficult to predict", and then calculate the proportion of residents who believe that the next quarter income "increase" and "basically unchanged", and then give the weight 1 and 0.5 after the weight of 1 and 0.5 out.

4. Employment experience index: the diffusion index reflecting residents' current employment feelings. The calculation method of this index is to deduct the number of residents who choose "unsatisfactory", and then calculate the proportion of residents who believe that employment "increase" and "basically unchanged" this quarter, and then give the weight 1 and 0.5 after the weight of 1 and 0.5 respectively. inferred.

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