"Fengkou Research Report · Industry" must not be missed!This medical consumption direction is very flexible!The current penetration rate is only 2-3%, and there is still more than 10 times the growth space of the country!

In addition to tourism and catering, the direction of consumption recovery has more than 10 times more growth space compared to foreign countries. Recently, high-frequency data also shows that both ends of supply and demand have begun to move towards high prosperity, which is expected to significantly exceed the level of 2020-2021.

Flu vaccine:

① In 2022, the influenza influenza rebounded significantly. The number of Australian influenza-positive detection in the southern hemisphere has recently exceeded the highest value of 2017-2021; ), 3%~ 4%higher than the same period of 2019-21;

② In the 2022, the influenza vaccine approval was issued significantly. In 2022, the number of Chinese influenza vaccines is expected to be nearly 100 million doses, and the sales volume is also expected to reach a new high. China's influenza vaccine in 2021 More than 50%, long -term space is still high;

③ Huatai Securities ’s influenza vaccine is expected to recover in 2022, and significantly exceeds 2020-2021.

④ Risk Tips: The risk of changes in the prevention and control policy of the new crown epidemic.

Influenza vaccination is a small year due to the impact of the new crown in 2020-2021. In 2022, flu in the southern hemisphere and southern China, and the production capacity of Chinese influenza vaccine has been greatly expanded and the supply is fully prefixed.

Huatai Securities Daiwen is expected to benefit from factors such as the wake-up of the epidemic, the supply of supply, and the weakened new crown crowding. Influenza vaccine is expected to recover from 2022 and significantly exceeds 2020-2021. , 100 grams of creature, Kim Dick.

Popularity: Fluid Popularity 2022 may exceed 2020-2021

The new crowns have been popular for three years, and influenza influenza has been suppressed. Observed a significant rebound in the influenza influenza in 2022: 1) The southern hemisphere is in the winter, and the Australian influenza positive detection has recently exceeded the highest value of 2017-2021; 6.8%(6/13 ~ 6/19), higher than the 3%~ 4%level in the same period of 2019-21, of which the positive influenza is 23%.

China ’s influenza influenza in 2022 may exceed 2020 ~ 2021: 1) There are a large number of asymptomatic and mild infection in flu. In recent years The annual vaccination must be required. Huatai Securities estimates that the total population of the influenza vaccine in China in 2021 is 2 ~ 3%, and the group of groups given by the vaccine is low.

Supply: Hengqiang of the industry strong, a significant prefix in 2022, the infant vaccine upgrade

In 2022, the number of influenza vaccines is expected to be nearly 100 million doses, of which tetravalent vaccines are expected to exceed 60 million doses:

1) In recent years, the Chinese Medicine and Koxing Bio IV4 were approved, and the Hualan vaccine has been expanded sharply. The production capacity of the entire industry in 2022 has increased rapidly to 150 million doses. In view of the industry's partial production drive rather than technology -driven, the competitive landscape is still the strong in the middle of the short term. Hengqiang;

2) In the 2022, the issuance of the issuance was issued in May, and the issuance was issued in May (the issuance was issued in August in August). As of 6/24, it has been issued 76 times, of which Hualan (IIV4) 51 times and the national medicine medium students (IIV4) 12 Two times, IIV4 (IIV4), 2 times of Sanofi (IIV3), and two times (LAIV3), the leading leadership is significant;

In February 2012, Hualan Vaccine's IIV4 children's dosage form was approved, and infant infant flu vaccines with a capacity of over 10 million doses of market capacity will usher in steep products.

Demand: Influenza vaccine is expected to recover rapidly in 2022, and long -term penetration rate is large

In 2022, the sales of influenza vaccines are expected to be 8,000-90 million doses:

2019-2020 China's influenza vaccine industry production and sales rate is 80%~ 85%. In 2021, the new crown vaccination was squeezed to less than 50%(the production and sales rate of listed companies was 15%~ 61%). Inoculation and squeezing.

In 2022, the production and sales rate will recover quickly, and the sales volume is also expected to reach a new high. China's influenza vaccine in 2021 The penetration rate of the population is only 2 ~ 3%, which is far lower than 50%of the United States. The long -term space is still high.

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