Zhang Jingjing: If the US stocks fall again, can A shares continue to be desensitized?

Zhongxin Jingwei June 29th. Question: If the US stocks fall again, can A shares continue to desensitize?

Author Zhang Jingjing China Merchants Securities Chief Macro analyst

Since the end of April, A -shares have been exclusively and impacted overseas. According to our statistics, from April 27th to June 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded 16.1%and the GEM index rebounded 31.3%. This time, the US stocks fell twice, the Dow Jones, the S & P 500 index, and Nasdaq closed down 5.2%, 6.3%, and 7.1%respectively.

Why has A shares fell indifferent to US stocks since the end of April? There are two reasons in the short term. First of all, the short -term economic dislocation of China and the United States. In March, the domestic epidemic economy weakened. At that time, US economic data was still not bad, and then US stocks ushered in a strong rebound and A shares continued to fall. On April 26th, the Central Finance and Economic Committee meeting emphasized "stabilizing market confidence". On April 29th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the "solid work of" six stability 'work ". Integrated. Furthermore, A -shares are stable and US stock adjustments. In addition, our statistics are that the low -point lows in the GEM fell 35.3%compared with the beginning of the year, and the decline of 38.5%from the high point in 2021, while the beginning of the year to June 16, the decline in Nasdaq Speed ​​over US stocks.

Why is the growth of this round of rebound? First, in terms of internal causes, on the premise of long -term scientific and technological dividends, the short -term macro environment is conducive to the valuation of growth and repair. It was in the economic recovery stage in May to June, and the market was different in the slope of growth, and the macro environment was relatively favorable. In the long run, since 2019, the "engineer dividends" have been released, and the "technology card neck" is promoted. The total market value of the semiconductor industry has continued to move upwards. In late April, the indicator fell to a new low in a year. It should indeed return to the center. The coordination of the short -term macro scenario was superimposed, which contributed to a strong rebound in the semiconductor and other sectors. Second, the foreign cause, the industry chain linkage, the ratio of the domestic Tesla's total market value to the Tesla stock market at the end of April, and the total market value of the domestic Apple industry chain to the market value of Apple's stock Trigger the related sector rebound.

Has U.S. stocks stopped? It is expected to have a last fall. At present, the S & P 500 risk premium is similar to August-November 2018, and there is no safety pad protection. From November to December 2018, the United States turned to recession, and the US stocks fell severely during the same period. Therefore, it is not enough to see Multi-US stocks on the grounds that the United States has shifted to decline transactions and the top of US debt yields. We used two -dimensional estimation of US stocks to decline, and the compromise did not rule out that the possibility of S & P fell by 10%was not ruled out.

If U.S. stocks fall again, can A shares continue to be desensitized? Three points of conclusions: First, if the stock price of Josela falls, the domestic Tesla industrial chain may still not be sensitive. Second, if Apple's stock price falls, it may have an impact on the domestic Apple industry chain. Third, in the two situations, the decline in US stocks in the next few months will drag A shares. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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