Zhong Zhengsheng et al.: Mid -reunion manufacturing enterprises' profits are positive and repaired

Zhongxin Jingwei June 28th.

Author Zhong Zhengsheng Ping An Securities Chief Economist and Director of Research Institute

Zhang Lu Ping An Securities Senior Macro Analyst

Changyi Xin Ping An Securities Macro Analysts

Data show that from January to May 2022, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.0%year-on-year, but the cumulative growth rate of industrial enterprises' profits continued to decline. However, from May, the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises has narrowed, which has narrowed, rising by 2 percentage points from last month to -6.5%. We believe that the low -level improvement of industrial enterprises' profit growth rate is mainly due to the gradual recovery of industrial production.

The industrial added value has increased by 3.6 percentage points from April. The gross profit margin of industrial enterprises has also improved slightly. PPI-PPIRM (the difference between the industrial producer's factory price index and the power purchase price index, which is often used to measure the direction of profit changes in industrial enterprises))) The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points. Specifically, the improvement of profit margins from the previous month benefited from the nearly period of time. The government's fiscal policy helped enterprises rescue, the cost of monetary policy, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which all offset the impact of continued corporate costs to a certain extent.

At present, the operation of industrial enterprises that eliminate price factor still shows the characteristics of "passive replenishment inventory" of "the growth rate of revenue decline and the rise in inventory growth". However, the current slope of "passive inventory" is showing signs of slowing down. This comes from the weakening of the prevention and control pressure of the epidemic, the production and logistics of industrial enterprises have been restored, and the revenue downward and the accumulation of finished product inventory are gradually slowing down.

On the whole, the improvement of the profit industry in the midstream manufacturing industry is stronger than the downstream consumer industry, indicating that the profit differentiation between the industry is still serious. This is mainly manifested in the following aspects:

First, the absolute level of profit growth in the upstream mining industry is still high, and the proportion of industrial enterprises' profits is still at a high level since 2013; the margin of profit growth has slowed down, and lagging development reflects the impact of weakening internal and external demand.

Second, the profit growth rate of the midstream manufacturing industry is low, and the proportion of the profit of industrial enterprises has been low in 2013, but the month -on -month improvement was obvious.

Third, the profit growth of the downstream consumer manufacturing industry is low, and the marginal improvement in May has weaker. In May, the restoration of the midstream manufacturing sector is stronger than the downstream consumer manufacturing sector, or the demand for the midstream manufacturing sector is more coming from the domestic investment and foreign demand exports. More stronger.

From the perspective of profit growth, because private enterprises have benefited more policies and measures such as retaining tax refund, tax reduction and reduction tax reduction, and tax payment and tax payment, the cost pressure drop is more obvious. Three months narrowed.

From the perspective of the recovery capacity, the degree of improvement of private enterprises in May is stronger than that of industrial enterprises, but compared with the same period of 2019 and 2021, it is still weaker. Since the beginning of the year, private enterprises have benefited more than to help enterprises' rescue policies. At the same time, it is also the country's priority support target to launch a new round of tax refund policy in April. We expect that the improvement of private enterprise operating indicators in the second half of the year will continue to be stronger than that of industrial enterprises.

Different industrial enterprises have a difference in profit recovery speed, and after refracting the epidemic constraints, China's investment and export recovery are relatively fast, and the recovery of domestic consumer demand is slow. We predict that the recovery of the domestic economy in the second half of the year may show a "stratified progress" trend.

Affected by the Fed ’s interest rate hike 75bp and domestic terminal demand have not yet improved significantly. In the past two weeks, the prices of international energy, non -ferrous metals and black products have all fallen. The profit of domestic midstream manufacturing companies has further improved. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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