Global curbing inflation expectations promotion agencies believe that the turning point of commodity prices will appear

The changes in commodity prices have always been the "signal lights" of the market. Since the second quarter, under the context of curbing inflation overseas, the situation of high commodity prices is still alleviating.

Recently, a reporter from the Securities Daily learned from a number of securities firms and futures vendors that it reached a consensus on overseas curbing inflation expectations and believed that the interest rate hike process in the second half of the year will continue. At the same time, when the demand is not as good as expected, the price of commodities has ushered in an inflection point, but it should be noted that crude oil price turning points or later than other products.

The overseas rate hike process in the second half of the year will continue

Since the beginning of this year, the continuous spillover of geopolitical risks has played a role in promoting the rise in commodity prices, especially global energy and grain prices, which has reached a record high. In addition, in the second quarter, global inflation is becoming increasingly serious. Among them, the US CPI super market expectations in the United States in May, the core CPI is at a high level in nearly 40 years.

In this context, global curbing inflation expectations continued to rise. In mid -June, the Fed announced that 75 basis points raised interest rates, the largest interest rate hike in the past 28 years. In addition, based on the Federal Reserve Eagle's statement, the market expects its expectations of 75 basis points in July. However, continuous high -frequency and large interest rate hikes have also aroused concerns about the market's concerns about the future global economy.

"Affected by geopolitical factors, the future price of Brent crude oil has once risen to more than $ 120/barrel. At the same time, the weather surface and anti -globalization and other factors have continued to affect energy and food prices." Haitong Securities analysis believes that disturbing global inflation in the world believes that global inflation The key is energy and food. In May, US energy inflation has been significantly risen to 3.9%month -on -month; food inflation continues to rise to 1.2%month -on -month, which is new high since 1990 (except in April 2020), and the contribution rate of the two's month -on -month growth of the United States for the month of the United States was more than 40%.

In the context of overseas inflation, most institutions identify the practices and determinations of countries to curb inflation, and believe that the interest rate hike process in the second half of the year will continue, but it must also be negotiated due to product attributes.

CICC stated that the overseas interest rate hike process in the second half of the year will have a significant inhibitory effect on inflation. Although the current global supply end risk has not yet subsided, the probability of extreme situations has decreased, and the influence on the fundamentals of commodities in the commodity is weakened. These are these. Long -term factors have a direct impact on market expectations and product price trends in the second half of the year.

"In the second half of the year, it is still possible to raise a large -scale interest rate hike in the second half of the year. Under the strong context of the United States' determination to control inflation and the long -term economic recession expectations, the price of commodities will decline as a whole, but it is expected to be under pressure in the later period." Galaxy Futures can be aged. Tong Chuan, a researcher at the Investment Research Department, told the Securities Daily reporter.

Liu Shunchang, an analyst at Nanhua Futures, told this reporter that a series of macroeconomic data released by the United States recently led the market expectation that the Fed will have a probability of 75 basis points in July of more than 80%. It can be seen that the tightening expectations of the Fed's currency will continue, which will continue to put pressure on the prices of various types of assets.

Crude oil price turning point or later than other products

Since late June, international oil prices have shown a low consolidation trend. Brent crude oil futures have not been able to reach the barrier after the loss of 110 US dollars/barrels, and WTI crude oil futures are also adjusted in this interval. Combined with the views of the inflection point of the commodity price, the market has doubts whether international oil prices can maintain high consolidation.

"Crude oil prices have recently been adjusted, on the one hand, the United States has raised interest rates sharply to curb inflation. The market has a pessimistic growth in long -term demand, leading to the overall decline in commodity prices; on the other hand, the supply side changes. The month and June will continue to recover, which will bring an additional increase to the supply in the third quarter. "Tong Chuan said that at the same time, OPEC member states will no longer be restrained by the production reduction plan after August. Essence Under the current economic recession expectations, the turning point of the commodity price has appeared, but as a terminal consumer product, the price turning point may be later than other goods.

Relevant persons from the East Cover Derivatives Research Institute told this reporter that the influence of the US and Europe inflation began to be reflected in the second quarter, but the actual amplitude was relatively mild. This round of crude oil prices was further adjusted mainly due to the digestion and demand prospects for interest rate hikes less than expected. "The current Russian export crude oil remains stable, and the changes in macro expectations may become the main factor affecting the oil price in the second half of the year."

Regarding the recent recovery of crude oil prices, Liu Shunchang believes that in addition to the adverse effects of overseas macroeconomic growth, it is also related to marginal turning weakness in the supply side. "At present, the probability of commodity prices is now increasing, mainly due to the slowdown in overseas economic growth, which is adversely affected by the demand side of the commodity. It can be confirmed that the bull market is over. For crude oil, compared with other commodity prices, It is strong, but under the stability of the supply side and the weaker demand side, international oil prices will come. "

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