The domestic sales declined for 13 consecutive months, and this year's exports rose sharply over 70 % of the heavy work: the adjustment time of the excavator industry will not be too long

From the end of 2020 to March 2021, the domestic excavator industry is like the sky. At that time, a reporter from "Daily Economic News" interviewed upstream and downstream companies in many industrial chains. Many practitioners said that the sales were hot and would expand production capacity. However, after more than a year, the domestic excavator industry is already another group of scenes.

On June 23, 2022, the Engineering Machinery Magazine released calculation data. It is estimated that in June 2022, excavators (including exports) sold about 18,000 units, a decrease of about 22%year -on -year. If the predicted data is finally confirmed, it means that the monthly sales of domestic excavators will increase negatively for 14 consecutive months.

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Recently, Sanyi Heavy Industry (SH600031, stock price 18.11 yuan, market value of 153.813 billion yuan) Securities affairs representative Zhou Likai said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that from the second quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, the Chinese excavator industry industry Show a negative growth trend. Among them, there are both market -cyclical impacts, insufficient construction, real estate construction, and rising raw material prices, but in general, it is currently only a small cycle and weak cycle.

Multiple companies' profit decline in the first quarter

According to statistics from 26 excavator manufacturing companies released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 20,624 units of various types of excavators were sold in May 2022, a year -on -year decrease of 24.2%; from January to May, a total of 122,333 excavators were sold, a year -on -year decrease of 39.1% Essence

In the past year, as a leader in the field of construction machinery, listed companies, including Hengli Hydraulic and Sany Heavy Industry, have both pressure on revenue and profits, and the stock price has also showed a downward trend.

From the perspective of financial data, in 2021, Sany Heavy Industry revenue was 106.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6.81%year -on -year, and the increase was far lower than 2017 ~ 2020; the net profit of returning mother was 12.03 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 22.04%. It was entering 2016 to enter in 2016. For the first time since the period of high -speed growth; in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue of Sany Heavy Industries was 20.28 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 39.49%, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 1.590 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 71.29%. In this regard, Zhejiang Business Securities Research reported that the main reason for the decline in the performance of Sany Heavy Industry was the sharp increase in raw material prices and international freight. The gross profit margin of each product declined slightly, and the research and development costs increased significantly.

Zhou Likai believes that it is normal for the excavator industry to make moderate downward adjustments. On the one hand, the growth rate of infrastructure in 2021 began to decline. By the second half of the year, there was even negative growth. There was also a new construction area and investment in the real estate industry. The rising cost of raw materials has little impact on Sany Heavy Industry, but it will put pressure on the downstream construction industry. Some construction chambers will postpone the construction plan.

In 2021, Hengli Hydraulic revenue was 9.309 billion yuan, an increase of 18.51%year -on -year, and net profit attributable to the mother was 2.694 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 19.51%. The two data increased in 5 years. In the first quarter of 2022, Hengli Hydraulic achieved revenue of 2.20 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 22.97%, and net profit attributable to mothers was 528 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 32.56%. In terms of Hengli hydraulic pressure, the decline in net profit in the first quarter of 2022 was mainly affected by the downstream industry prosperity. The company's main product excavators and subsidiaries' pump valve sales declined.

Zhou Jiali, a representative of Hengli Hydraulic Securities Affairs, also said that on the one hand, the company's excavator -related business income accounts for relatively high income, while the decline in sales has led to a decline in capacity utilization and the increase in the cost of product sharing. Quickly affect gross profit; on the other hand, raw materials have increased prices from the fourth quarter of 2020, and reached a high level in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.

"We used the raw materials purchased in the fourth quarter of 2020 in the first quarter of 2021. At that time, the price was the lowest level, and in the first quarter of 2022, the raw materials purchased in the fourth quarter of 2021 were the highest in price, resulting in increased raw material costs. "Zhou Jiali told the Daily Economic News reporter on the phone.

At the Hengli Hydraulic Conference in May 2021, at the situation of the 2020 annual shareholders' meeting, Wang Liping, chairman of Hengli Hydraulic, said that the company was discussing price increases with downstream customers with downstream customers. Recently, Zhou Jiali responded to the reporter that the company's price of downstream sales products has not changed much, and there is no price increase, and the price of the long -term association is relatively stable.

Exports to surge to survive domestic sales

While flowering in the wall, the domestic excavator industry is temporarily in a trough, but the sales of foreign excavators have exploded.

According to statistics from 26 excavator manufacturing companies released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in May 2022, the domestic sales of excavators sold 1,2179 units, a year -on -year decrease of 44.8%, exporting 8,445 units, an increase of 63.9%year -on -year; Sales 80097 units, a year -on -year decrease of 54.7%, a total of 4,2236 units, a year -on -year increase of 75.7%.

On June 23, the Construction Machinery Magazine released the calculation data. It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in June 2022 was about 18,000 units, a year -on -year decrease of about 22%. From the perspective of the market, the domestic market is estimated to sell 10,000 units, a year -on -year decrease of about 41%; the export market is estimated to sell 8,000 units, a year -on -year increase of about 30%. In this regard, Zhou Jiali said that at the moment when domestic excavators demand declines, the growth of overseas exports has made the company's performance much better than the industry. Among them, there are factors that have increased the demand for construction in the area of ​​suspension in the production and stop of the epidemic, as well as the factors that the domestic OEMs have low overseas and increased its pioneering efforts. In addition, there are factors for the depreciation of the renminbi.

"At present, there are two regional demand for excavators abroad. One is North America and the other is Southeast Asia. Among them, the increase in demand in the United States is a policy orientation (factor) that drives infrastructure." Zhou Jiali introduced.

According to the Research Report of Guojin Securities, the market demand for overseas excavators is strong. At the same time, foreign supply is insufficient, and domestic enterprises continue to increase their export business layout. The increase in the proportion of overseas revenue led by XCMG Machinery and Sany Heavy Industry, which has also cushioned the risk of cyclical fluctuations to domestic sales. Domestic brands have begun to enter Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and other regions with low per capita excavators.

Zhou Likai also said that the exports of Sanyi Heavy Industries are currently growing rapidly in emerging countries and developed countries, of which the biggest growth is Europe and the United States. "On the one hand, it is because the company's overseas competitiveness continues to improve; on the other hand, it is the implementation strategy of‘ mainly me, local operation, and service. ’, And finally the company has strengthened the investment in overseas products.”

"Since 2016, the sales revenue of Sanyi excavators has nearly 10 times the overseas sales revenue, and in 2020 and 2021, China's overall resistance effect is better, which has created a favorable environment for Chinese companies. The supply chain was affected, and the Chinese company had some opportunities. "Zhou Likai said.

The annual report of 2021 shows that the Sanyi excavator has increased rapidly in the global market share, the overseas market share exceeded 6%, an increase of 2 percentage points from 2020. The overseas sales ranking has entered the top five. , North America, Europe, Australia and other developed market excavators have increased significantly.

The industry is in the technical upward cycle

Many industry research reports predict that the excavation industry in 2022 will be a low -end and high trend. Zhou Likai also said that the excavator industry does have some adjustments, but the time will not be too long. Generally speaking, it is currently just a small cycle and weak cycle. Beginning in 2016, China's construction machinery industry has returned to growth. Its real motivation is not large -scale infrastructure investment, or relying on the so -called real estate, which is essentially the improvement of Chinese product competitiveness.

“其实我们可以看到，这些年来，基建投资整体增速逐渐放缓，房地产增长有高有低。但从出口数据来看，2016年，中国挖机出口7327台，但到了2021年，全年Exporting 6,8427 units. Through a longer -term perspective, 2011 was a so -called peak of domestic engineering machinery. At that time, China was mainly imported excavators. "Zhou Likai said.

The changes are naturally related to China's economic structure adjustment and industrial upgrading. Zhou Likai said that the domestic industry is densely worked and has a lot of demographic dividends, but after 2012, as China's labor force gradually decreases, the price of physical workers is getting more and more expensive. Existing replacement.

It is worth noting that the changes in population structure forced Chinese enterprises to upgrade the technology, prompting the price of excavators to be cheaper and cheaper, and also leading to more and more engineering projects increasingly reducing the use of physical labor and increasing the proportion of engineering machinery. This is also China. This is also China. This is also China. This is also China. The reasons for the rapid increase in the automation rate and mechanization rate in economic structure.

"Now the reclamation farmland in the countryside, the construction of water conservancy, and the garden greening and municipal engineering in the city are no longer inseparable from the excavator." Zhou Likai said.

Therefore, in Zhou Likai's view, although the excavator industry is currently in a downside cycle, it is actually in a technical upward cycle, and this is a long -term cycle, which will weaken the overall cycle of the excavator industry. Among them Including the process of large -scale electrification and new energyization of construction machinery.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that in recent years, domestic construction machinery leading companies including Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Machinery, Liu Gong and other domestic engineering machinery have deployed electric excavators and loaders. It has also been new.

In this regard, Zhou Jiali said that Hengli hydraulic pressure believes that the direction of the excavator in the future must be developed towards electrification, intelligence, and green. "Of course, some hydraulic parts cannot be replaced, because the excavator transmission requires a lot of intensity, but the components in control will basically be electrified in the future."

And Zhou Likai believes that the value of electrified construction machinery is greater than traditional fuel engineering machinery. In the next few years, the infiltration rate of electrification in the field of construction machinery will become higher and higher. Development opportunities. On the other hand, the value of electrifying construction machinery to downstream use customers will also be greater, including saving operating costs, environmental protection and emission reduction, and enhanced operation comfort.

Daily Economic News

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