Zheng's eyes look at the market: leaving two short gaps to rise seem to be too anxious

On June 27th (Monday), the A -share rose, and the Shanghai Index and the Shenzhen Index Lian La Sanyang. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.88%to 3379.19 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 1.1%, the GEM index rose 0.22%, and the science and technology 50 index rose 0.17%.

Most of the heavy stocks such as liquor and coal are somewhat performed on Monday, but brokerage stocks with large weights have made a profit. Consumer stocks such as tourism, airports, and tax -free. The performance of photovoltaic stocks is also eye -catching. The performance of technology and military stocks is temporarily behind.

People may have been accustomed to rising photovoltaic stocks, and tourism stocks are not common, so it is a little striking.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics this Monday morning, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first five months of this year increased by 1%year -on -year; the total profit of the month in May was 6.5%year -on -year.

On Thursday, another more important economic data will be announced. This is the official manufacturing purchasing manager (PMI) index in June. This is a leading indicator. It has more prompting the lag indicators such as the above -mentioned profits. Pay attention.

On Monday, Treasury bond futures fell significantly, and the repurchase interest rate of the exchange also rose. On Monday afternoon, the governor of the central bank Yi Gang said that considering the level of inflation, it can be seen that the actual interest rate level of the (my country) is quite low, and the financial market can effectively allocate resources.

These remarks seem to be bland, but the central banks are more satisfied with the current interest rate level. This further implies that the future of interest rates is extremely limited.

The net inflow of the north to 7.265 billion yuan throughout the day was net inflow for the third consecutive trading day. In terms of related markets, US stocks rose sharply last Friday. Most of the Asia -Pacific stock markets rose on Monday, and Hong Kong stocks rose 2.35%.

It is worth mentioning that U.S. stocks are not rising only last Friday. In fact, the increase in the whole week is relatively large. For example, the Dow Jones Index rose 5.39%last week, and the remaining stock indexes increased greater. The increase in the Dow Jones Index may not be too amazing, but it has actually risen a lot, because the index has fallen for nearly half a year and failed to fall into 20%.

The mainstream view of international market investors is that the United States has a greater opportunity to fall into recession, and such expectations have been greatly strengthened last week. Even the Fed Chairman also acknowledged the possibility of recession last week. Strangely, it is, in the context of this recession expectation, U.S. stocks have risen.

The reasons for the rising stock markets listed by the international markets are nothing more than "recession will force interest rate hikes to end in advance." Of course, there are great vulnerabilities, but our A -share investors do not need to study the ideas of international market investors, just stare at the Federal Reserve's mid -term interest rate increase space.

Judging from the current situation, the Federal Reserve's more reliable interest rate hikes are actually three times in July, September, and November. Although there is a chance to continue to raise interest rates, the variables are quite large. Therefore, the surrounding environment in the second half of the year and next year may be more favorable. In this case, if other information can cooperate, then the opportunity to eventually go out of the larger market will not be ruled out.

However, in the short term, it seems that the rise in A shares in the past few days seems to be a bit anxious.

From the perspective of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, there are two gaps in just three trading days. This form is obviously disturbing, and it will almost induce some short -term customers to reduce their holdings. Therefore, if the stock index is not shocked first, It may be difficult to obtain rising momentum for a while.

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