What time is the stock market and the market downward Merrill Lynch?

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Tang Jing Beijing report

Since the bottom of April 27, the A shares have begun to stabilize and recover. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has risen by 17.07%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 25.66%, the GEM index rose by 31.62%, and it came out of a strong rising market.

In contrast, after June 8th, the price of commodities fell significantly. As of June 24, the price of WTI crude oil fell 11.9%, and the Wind product index also fell 14.1%. Specifically, various types of commodity indexs have generally fallen, of which oil oil, coal coke steel ore, non -metal building materials and chemical indexes have fallen most obvious, reaching 19.3%, 17.2%, 14.6%, 14.1%, and 12.4%, respectively.

The stock market is going up, the market is down, what changes have taken place in the market wind direction?

Sino -US economic cycle misplacement

Generally speaking, commodities with large domestic demand are often highly related to the domestic economic cycle. Overseas demands are often highly related to the global economic cycle.

Everbright Securities pointed out that non -ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and crude oil prices are highly related to the American Merrill Clock. When the US economy is in a period of overheating, metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and crude oil prices often rise rapidly. When the US economy is in a recession, metal prices such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel will generally fall into a trough.

The varieties on the black industry chain such as coke, coke coal, and steel are highly related to the Chinese Milin clock. When the Chinese economy is in a period of overheating, coke, coke coal, and steel will have a rise in; and when the Chinese economy is down, coke, coke coke and steel prices will continue to fall.

Wu Zhaoyin, director of the Macro Strategy of AVIC Trust, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that recently A -shares have performed well, US stocks have been weak, and large -scale adjustments have appeared in commodities. There are different economic cycles behind China and the United States. From the perspective of the U.S. economic cycle, it is currently transitioning from the stagflation phase to the recession stage. The characteristics of the stagflation stage are that the inflation is rising but the economy begins to turn down. The corresponding asset performance is double killing of stock debts.

Wu Zhaoyin introduced that in the first half of the year, the United States was generally in the stagflation stage, and the CPI continued to innovate high, but the economic growth rate was down, and the three major stock indexes fell very much. Essence After continuous interest rate hikes, the trend of inflation in the United States will fall. Although it is still difficult to judge whether the CPI is topped in May, it can be judged that the current CPI is in the top range. The US economy will enter the recession stage. The characteristics of the recession are economic downturn and inflation. The corresponding asset performance is the rise in stocks.

Wu Zhaoyin bluntly stated that after the downturn in the April and May, China began to make efforts. On the one hand, the fiscal and monetary policy was relatively loose. On the other hand, after the epidemic affected, consumption and investment would rebound rapidly, and the overall economy recovered quickly. However, the overall price is still not high, CPI is less than 3%, PPI is also falling. Economy and stable prices are the main characteristics of the current Chinese economy and an important symbol of the economic recovery period.

According to the traditional Meilin clock investment theory, "economic upward, inflation and downward" constitute a recovery stage. At this stage, due to the greater elasticity of stocks to the economy, its relative bonds and cash have significantly excess returns.

Wu Zhaoyin predicts that the trend of commodities in the later period will be significantly differentiated. The demand for crude oil and agricultural products will not weaken. At the same time, its supply is difficult to expand or even decreases by the affected geopolitics. Therefore, the prices of agricultural products such as wheat and corn will rise after the recent return. However, basic metals such as copper, aluminum lead zinc, and black varieties such as iron ore, threads, and other black varieties are not demanding. After the recent decline, it will be based on the sideways, and new metal varieties related to new energy vehicles such as lithium carbonate are still high In the state of prosperity, the price will continue to maintain a high level or even a new high.

Everbright Securities also believes that the United States will enter the decline cycle from the stagflation cycle, and China is expected to enter the recovery cycle in the middle of China. From the perspective of Merrill Lynch, A shares and Hong Kong stocks ushered in the turnaround after the inflection point of China's economic prosperity, but it will also be negatively affected by the decline in the US economic prosperity. In terms of style, after entering the recovery period in China, you can pay attention to the growth style of the large market and the black commodity. Considering the decline in the economic prosperity of the United States, non -ferrous metals and oil prices such as copper and aluminum will be negatively affected in the future.

The reporter found that the U.S. hedge fund has also increased the betting of the "darling of the recession" -the bet. The latest data of the American Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of the week of June 21, the net multi -header of the hedge fund COMEX gold futures increased by 12256 to 61816, and the New York Commodity Exchange's WTI crude oil net multi -header was reduced by 31972 to 234012. hand.

Saying the commodity at the top of the commodity

Li Yansen, the chief macro analyst of Founder's mid -term futures, told reporters that from the perspective of the cycle, the shift of China's economy to recovery in the second half of the year is conducive to A -share performance, but it is not negative to commodities. The overseas economy, especially the US economy, has a certain impact on commodities after turning to decline in the future. Under the difference in rhythm of strong and outer economy in the economy, the price of commodities is difficult to have obvious unilateral trends, and the structured differences may be enlarged. Black and partial colored varieties that are biased towards domestic demand are expected to be stronger than breeds that are biased towards overseas demand.

Tian Yaxiong, the chief of CITIC Futures Futures Agricultural Products, told reporters that last week's commodity index fell sharply, which was a market pricing in the market's expected expectations in the United States. After the US CPI brushed another 40 -year high in May, the market expects the hopes of the US inflation to fall naturally, and high inflation expectations have won a wide range of mass foundations. After the inflation data was announced, the market had determined to raise interest rates under the Federal Reserve to control the inflation. The Federal Reserve has been established by suppressing demand to achieve re -balance of supply and demand. However, it is worth noting that the weakening of demand in reality has not emerged, and the global economy has not yet recessive. Tian Yaxiong said that when the demand is really weakened in reality in the future, the price of energy such as energy may fall, the market is concerned about inflation, the inflation is weakened, the Fed's tightening pressure is relieved, and the price of commodity prices rebounds again.

Tian Yaxiong believes that most of the current product varieties are likely to have the top, but it is expected and reality to see. In the process, the attributes of energy and food resistance are expected to be prominent.

Minsheng Securities believes that for investors, the current commodities have been obviously retracted, but now it is not a good time for selling commodities and their manufacturers' stocks, but has ushered in the layout time. At present, the world is dominated by the recession caused by supply. For example, the core problem in Europe is energy shortage. If energy prices have declined or short -term relief, demand will be restored. In the future, with the gradual recovery of the Chinese economy, when the world's marginal demand contribution is driven by China, the stock index should rebound with the South China Industrial Product Index, and cyclical stocks will become an important force in the market.

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