[Chief Observation] The pain of recession or stagnation of the global central bank

Economic Observation Network reporter Ouyang Xiaohong

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Although the Red Friday (June 24) just passed the Red Friday -the global stock market rarely rose collectively; the alarm of recession OR stagnation was not lifted.

On the occasion of the world pattern: on the one hand, the US inflation is high+tightening, plus the "abortion right bill" causes a stir, and the public protests frequently; on the other hand, the Lehman possibility hovering over Europe -according to German warnings, if the natural gas market supply and demand gap gaps Too big, a "Lehman crisis" in the energy industry may erupt. In addition, Moody's rating of Country Garden was lowered from BAA 3 to BA1, causing the market to worry about foreign investment in the Chinese real estate industry.

Just on June 26, foreign media reported that the Seven Kingdoms Group (G7) will be announced on June 28 that the import of Russian gold is prohibited as the responsibility for Russia for the war in Ukraine to prevent them from trying to escape the continuous efforts of Western sanctions. Part of. Including the G7 leader promised to raise $ 600 billion in private and public funds within five years to fund the infrastructure required by developing countries.

At the same time, Cofz, a global credit insurance service provider, lowered the rating of 19 countries, including 16 European countries (especially Germany, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom). Essence

Coffus's second quarter trade risk report stated that the global economy is at the crossroads. The four -month -old Russian -Ukraine conflict has increased the risk of hard landing global economy: Although the global economy seems to face a stagnation threat a few weeks ago, the adjustments made by the central banks in the face of the acceleration of inflation allowed everyone to see it again. Economic decline, especially in developed economies.

At the industry level, the number of coffas lowered (a total of 76 times, and 9 times) fully indicates that these continuous impacts have spread to all industries, including energy -intensive industries (petrochemicals, metallurgy, paper products, etc.) and those and the credit cycle. Direct related industries (buildings).

In view of the acceleration of inflation, the deterioration of economic entities, and the tightening of the global financial situation, the economic activities of the developed economy in the second quarter have not improved significantly, and the situation of emerging economies is worse. Although it may be too early to assert that the global economy has entered a stagnation state, some signals are currently confirming this view.

At this time, the major central banks stepped on the brakes. Cofus pointed out that following the Fed and the British Bank, the European Central Bank has gradually tightened its position and even announced the future interest rate hike plan in advance. Like other major central banks (except the Bank of Japan), the European Central Bank has no choice in its strict policy framework and can only prevent strict prevention. Although this may lead to a significant slowdown in economic activities and re -triggers concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis crisis Essence

In May, the US and British CPIs increased by 8.6%and 9.1%year -on -year, and China CPI was 2.1%. Under the unprecedented inflation, due to the different rhythm of recovery, the industry lamented that the Central Bank of Japan chose to continue to sprinkle money. The European Central Bank tightened the city while rescued the city, and the United States stepped on the fastest brakes in the 30 years. The so -called Japanese money, European rescue market, and the United States extinguished fire; central banks of various countries were struggling.

What's more, on June 16, the Swiss Central Bank decided to raise interest rates 50 basis points. Jingshun chief global market strategist Kristinahoper believed that this marked the end of the era of super loose monetary policy. This is the first rate hike in the central bank in 15 years. It is worth noting that Switzerland has no high inflation as other Western countries. However, considering the high inflation of many other countries, the RBI motivation of the Swiss Bank may be considered for the risk of preventing the second round of effects.

Kristinahooper analyzed that the decision of the Swiss central bank symbolizes that in the face of high inflation in many parts of the world, central banks in Western developed markets are moving towards the normalization of monetary policy. For the first time, these central banks have changed their thinking model to a large extent -facing higher, longer, wider inflation and rapid rise in inflation expectations, they have to do so.

Thanks to the mild inflation expectations, the space of Chinese monetary policy is relatively loose, but this does not mean that it is not constrained by inflation (we have input inflation pressure, but the current is relatively controllable); It will form a certain constraint on domestic liquidity loose; stability is still the most important mind in the central bank. "The primary task of China's monetary policy is to maintain stability of prices," said Yi Gang, president of the central bank two months ago.

"The concerns about the global economic recession have been reflected in the overseas financial market. The European stock market continues to decline. The S & P 500 is already in the bear market. With the challenge of" stagnation "in most countries around the world, the pressure of A shares out of the independent market is increasing. Big. "Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities.

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At first glance, the recent A -share scenery is unique, and it seems that the amount of thought is not the same.

As far as the global market is concerned, on June 24th, A shares, which have performed strongly in the past two months, rose again on the board again. Among them, the Shanghai Index rose 0.89%, the deep certificate index rose 1.37%, the GEM rose 2.33%; The index rose 2.09%, the state -owned enterprise index rose 2.22%, and the Nikkei index rose 1.23%; the continued downturn in the European and American stock markets also rose: British rich Time Harvest 7208.81 (+2.68%), Germany DAX reported 13118.13 (+1.59%), France CAC is reported to 6073.35 (+3.23%); U.S. stocks index 31500.68 (+2.68%), Na index 11607.62 (+3.34%), S & P 500 reported 3911.74 (+3.06%). "American consumer inflation is expected to fall from the 14 -year high, and the urgency or decrease of the Fed's radical interest rate hike." On the same day, a private equity person analyzed the reason why US stocks rose on June 24.

According to the analysis of AVIC Securities Research, the Federal Reserve President Powell once again emphasized that the Fed will suppress the US CPI to 2%of the target through austerity of the Federal Reserve on June 22. It is worth noting that when a member proposed to Powell to continue to raise interest rates may cause the economy to fall into a decline, Powell said on the one hand that he believed that the US economy is now strong, but acknowledging the economic recession may happen.

On the other hand, it emphasizes the determination to suppress inflation again, saying that the current interest rate hike is appropriate. Although Powell once again shows that the Fed's determination to control inflation, the current core problem is that the affected problem at the level of high inflation may last for a longer time -the Federal Reserve has to increase interest rate hikes, and hedge the "excess" suppression demand to hedge off the demand. In the case of supply side inflation pressure, how big the Federal Reserve has tolerance for the economic recession caused by the tightening monetary policy.

This core issue is related to market emotions and the capital trend of recession or stagnation.

At this time, the A -shares have continued to rise to the high level of the three and a half months of 3300 points. According to this, Dong Zhongyun analyzed that it can be foreseeable in the short term. Recently, international commodities have continued to adjust, which shows that the market's concerns about future demand shrinkage are intensifying. After experiencing a rebound in the previous paragraph, the market has begun to change from the opportunity to focus on risks. Investors' sensitivity to the outer surrounds will increase. This means that the linkage of U.S. stocks and A shares in the short term may be strengthened.

In fact, from the perspective of global asset linkage, the linkage of stock markets in major developed countries around the world since 2000 has become increasingly strengthened. According to the AVIC Securities Institute, especially under risk incidents, the inflection point and trend of global stock indexes are becoming more consistent, and the linkage between my country and the world's developed countries has become more significant since 2015. However, in the past month, A shares are negatively related to the global stock index, while the performance between other global stock indexes is relatively synchronized. The opposite interest rate and financial cycle of China and the United States is a key factor that leads to the departure of A shares and the global stock market.

It is worth noting that although my country's monetary policy is mainly me, the Fed's interest rate hike will restrict my country's loose monetary policy. Secondly, the slowdown in overseas growth will more or less suppress the expectations of my country's export manufacturing industry.

Based on the Sino -US stock market departure (A shares up, U.S. stocks down), such as A shares have risen by 14%, US stocks have fallen by 11%, and the difference between the rise and fall is 25%. There are also optimistic people saying: China and the United States have separated from each other, and the stock market and economy are also departing; China's recovery and the United States decline. However, judging by the current data, the Chinese economy is more relying on "belief". Just like the policy stimulus, the economic data in May appeared signs of stopping.

The person judged that the main reason for the decline in the US economy was that the United States could not have both inflation and economic growth.

The worries of inflation, the concerns of growth, is it important? It seems to be at a glance, but the authorities are fascinated. As the founder of the bridge water, Ruida Dalio said, we still circulate in the historical cycle. Behind it is complicated and changing factors such as "debt monetization, the disparity between the rich and the poor, and the competition of the great power". They are related to the cause of the current macro situation in the world.

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In fact, human history is also a history of competing with plague and war; if the two are superimposed, the blow to society is self -evident. In the past, this dual impact has led to the global economy from the traditional operation trajectory, high inflation and stagnation of growth and stagnation. How long will this special scene last?

In the view of Wu Ge, the chief economist of Changjiang Securities, in order to break the vicious inflation cycle caused by "demand stimulation-cost impact" as soon as possible, the "Eagle" interest rate hike of the Bank of the United States and Europe will inevitably increase the increase. Although this will exacerbate the decline in total demand, it can only "take the lightness of both harm." Considering the time stagnation of currency tightening, the impact of fiscal ebb tide since last year, the global economic growth rate will be significantly under pressure in the second half of this year to next year.

On June 23, Ying CITIC Publishing Group invited, the founder of Qiaoshui Rui Dalio and Sequoia Global Executive Partner Shen Nanpeng said that in order to avoid economic losses caused by inflation, the government would take away some of them who had given it to The purchasing power, such as the Fed's sale of $ 1.1 trillion bonds, has also increased interest rates, which leads to a decline in purchasing power and a stagnant environment. Stagging and inflation will cause the public's purchasing power to be damaged.

"One person’s debt is the asset of another person, so the balance of the two must be set, otherwise there will be problems ..." Dalio believes that people cannot increase interest rates to the degree of inflation sufficient to curb inflation, nor can it make it impossible The holders of those assets affected by inflation are repaid, and if the interest rate is high, it will inevitably have a negative impact on economic activities. Therefore, the stagflation mechanism will cause its inevitable impact. That is, the tightening of the United States and Europe's currency formed an impact. Bian Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, analyzed that the tightening of the US -Europe currency's impact on emerging markets in this round is more severe than early 2021. There are three reasons: First, the US debt interest rate and the US dollar index rose at the same time, and the pressure of "US dollars" was even worse. From January to April this year, the inflow of international capital in the United States was 1.5 times the same period of 2021. Second, the central bank of the developed economy has a collective tightening, and the pressure of emerging markets is more extensive. Third, the decline in risk preferences in the US -Europe stock market and bond market market, which is not conducive to the inflow of funds into emerging markets.

At the same time, Ping An Securities believes that the Chinese market is no longer "one horse first." In the first half of this year, China's capital inflow was not optimal in emerging markets, and A shares adjusted sharply with the RMB exchange rate. The reason is that China faces a triple challenge: First, the economic downward pressure is high, and the economic and monetary cycle at home and abroad is "dislocated". The second is that China's "demand country" characteristics are obvious, competition from "resource country" increases, or "diversion effects" for cross -border capital inflows in China.

In the case of tightening credit conditions, Chaus believes that the construction industry seems to be the most vulnerable industry. The rise in borrowing costs is expected to affect the real estate market and eventually affect the activities in the construction field. The United States is the first, and its house sales are declining sharply.

The impact has no national borders. Taking the recent steel market that has been stomped in the near future, the supply side, demand side (real estate, low demand in the automotive industry), cost side, market mentality, peripheral environment, etc. have obvious effects on the market. Waiting for losses, the entire industry is full of pessimism.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Wu Ge analyzed that with the gradual retreat of supply shock, weakened demand will re -dominate the global economy, and "swelling" will be transformed more to "stagnation". Affected by this, it is determined that the power of my country's foreign trade will turn from the previous high export price to the accelerated number of foreign demand, which will increase the difficulty of my country's steady growth. Although my country is wrong with overseas cycle, it may not be able to take it alone.

Even the prospect of 2023 is worrying? With the rapid deterioration of the economic and financial environment, Kosher lowered the rating of 16 European countries, including all major economies, except as A4 -level Italy.

Cofz's core scenario analysis shows that economic activities in the next 18 months will slow down, and inflation will gradually slow down during this period. It is particularly optimistic about the growth forecast of developed countries. The global economy is facing multiple downward risks, and the uplink risks of inflation still exist. In order to suppress inflation, the central banks often tend to push the economy into the recession channel. At the same time, I hope that this control measure can be more gentle, because if the price continues to decline, it may force it to adopt a more radical currency shock in the later period. policy. However, the risk that cannot be ruled out is that due to long -term supply shortages, the prices of commodities have never been reduced, which may lead to decline in demand, and inflation will continue to be maintained at a high level.

As for the impact of the central bank's policy on the assets, Kristinahooper believes that the normalization of the policy will eventually have a positive impact. However, at the initial stage, it will experience market pain and the economic impact.

"We see risk assets (from stocks to cryptocurrencies) and 'low -risk' assets have all been sold." Kristina Hooper said that he said that the response of global assets is negative, because this change appears too fast and the scale is too fast and scale. Too big, the market still changed a huge change before digesting. Once the market has digested the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike, the impact of the financial environment on asset prices will weaken, especially for high -quality credit and stocks. If the Western central bank can slow down the pace of tightening the policy later this year, this may help the asset price performance, and it should also help the long -awaited slowing inflation.

So, where is the recent opportunity?

Kristina Hooper believes that the markets that are not tightened by monetary policy will have opportunities in the short term. In particular, from the perspective of currency hedging, Japan and China's risk assets (except the real estate sector) look more attractive.

He pointed out that China may benefit from more financial and currency stimuli, especially compared with the United States, the opposite of the United States is the opposite. In the middle and long term, the global investment portfolio of diversified (and high income) will bring opportunities, including stocks, fixed income and alternative assets.

AVIC Securities recommends that the long -term growth space and short -term profit tough industries are high. In terms of sectors, the implementation effect of the current steady growth policy has begun to reflect in economic data. It has long -term certainty in infrastructure -related areas that are based on the layout of the stable growth policy. Among them, the new infrastructure field has dual attributes of growth and stable growth. Configuration value. In addition, in the context of the continuous improvement of domestic epidemics, it is recommended to pay attention to consumption and manufacturing sector investment opportunities after the epidemic reversal. In terms of configuration, it is beneficial to industries that are expected to improve the prosperity expectations of re -production and re -production and use scenarios.

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