This year, 80 % VC/PE does not make money, LP is "smaller"

How to exit GP?

The difficulty of fundraising is still staged.

Shanghai Venture Investment Guidance Fund announced a set of data at the end of May. In the GP of its investment, 47%of institutions fundraising progress meets expectations. It is also reduced the amount of target fundraising.

Generally speaking, the institution will set up fundraising according to its own rhythm. Some institutions raise a medium-sized fund in one year, and some will raise a large fund in 2-3 years. Special fund.

However, this year, the rhythm of fundraising has slowed down, which directly led to a large change in the investment logic of institutions: in terms of track, US dollar funds began to invest in hard technology; in terms of valuation, hot money decreased, and most industries' valuations gradually gradually gradually gradually became valuations. Falling to normal levels; in terms of fund operation logic, the heads of investment institutions began to pay more attention to the logic of risks.

Forever with the topic: Investors are withdrawn from "pulling off the flowers, and then watering weeds"

Although there are many super catcher in the first -level market, this does not mean that they can get the best exit in the secondary market.

At present, there are two main types of investors in the market. The first type of investors resolutely implement the withdrawal policy and do not attach to IPO, especially some early investors. During Shuangchuang, Zhu Xiaohu was a typical representative of the retreat of retreat. Such an exit strategy not only made him gain a large number of unicorn projects, but also won the high return.

The second type of investors choose to exit segments. At present, this part of investors are the most mainstream exit playback: for the project grading, IPO expects to be listed and exited, and the expected sale of capital preservation is expected to be sold in advance.

Of course, the exit strategy of VC and PE is also different from this day. It is worth mentioning that although most of the VC and PE will have repurchase clauses in the investment agreement, the difference is that PE will take the repurchase seriously, but VC and early angel investment are difficult to implement.

Especially for angel investment, a rule that agrees is that they are willing to bet. If any angel institution really shouts the company's repurchase, it will become a "barbarians outside the door" -the comments to be joked.

In fact, no matter how impeccable the exit strategy is done, but human desire is infinite. It is also difficult to have an institution to fully implement its own exit strategy.

And it is worth mentioning that the exit of the project is also a problem. Everyone hopes to sell at the high point of the stock, but it is difficult to operate. At present, China Stocks have plummeted across the board, and there are dozens of locking US dollars VCs behind it, as many as a hundred.

Although many institutions are promoting their star projects, almost most institutions have many failures. The explosive project is just a small probability. Moreover, even if it is a star project, after the successful listing, after the stock price is cash out, after deducting the cost of taxes and fees, fund management fees, investors' comprehensive annualized rate of return is much lower than expected.

As of February 28, 2022, Director and shareholder of Yixian E -commerce

In terms of exit strategy, just like retail investors, many GPs will increase their holdings of losing stocks and sell profitable stocks. One is the vision of SoftBank. At a difficult time for operation, SoftBank sells the most profitable Ali, but holds losses money for money WeWork.

Peter Lynch has called this behavior "unplugging the boiled flowers and then watering weeds to fertilize."

This kind of behavior for weed water water is everywhere in the market, as well as many front -line head funds. Although the head GP is a good master of unicorn, it is not necessarily going on in terms of exit.

Of course, there is another situation that the decline in the stock price is due to an unpredictable reason, not because of the company itself. "The decline in the stock market is like a normal snowstorm in January in Colorado. If you are prepared, it will not hurt you. Every time you fall, it is a good opportunity. Stocks. "Peter Lynch once said.

But what needs to be directly looked at is that the investment in the first -level market is subject to the funding limit. During a certain period of time, it is necessary to exit to LP and bring it to the reward to continue to raise funds. Then LP may not buy it.

Today, even the government guidance fund needs to withdraw. At present, nearly 80%of government guidance funds have set up forced exit clauses to ensure that fiscal investment preservation and value -added just need. "Long -term holding" in the first -level market may be a pseudo -proposition. But to invest in the secondary market, you need to be more powerful.

However, the first core of GP cross -border investment in secondary market is "don't exceed the scope of force." The long shot is almost always off the target.

80%funds "don't make money"

According to European and American GP statistics, at present, 20%of funds are profitable, about 50%of funds do not make much money, and the remaining 30%of funds are in a state of losing money.

This means that more than 80%of funds are "busy", and only 20%of minorities can make money. However, it should be noted that it is mentioned here that a single fund, not a management agency. If the management of a certain management agency is put together in the management fund, and the influence of the economic cycle, it can always maintain a "state of money". , Maybe the number is less.

Looking at the head GP in the market, no matter how powerful the hunter, there have been poor performance funds, either stepped on a certain industry that looks infinitely good, but is in the downward stage, such as photovoltaic. Either eager to expand the scale and cause changes in the logic of shot. In fact, the recognized fact of the industry in the industry is that the larger the large -scale fund, the smaller the investment income.

This is easy to understand. If a 10 million fund is a 20 million returns, you only need to get 20 million. However, if a fund of 1 billion is completed, you must get 2 billion yuan in return to 2 times the return.

Moreover, when the scale of the fund expands, the investment will deform. The more typical is that the rhythm of shots has changed in essence. How can I complete the investment within 3-4 years (calculated according to the 7-year renewal) within 3-4 years? In addition, the money pockets are deep, and the valuation of a single project will not be particularly sensitive. Such cases are abound in the investment circle. When the bubble has not broken, some institutions smash the project through high valuation. Although everyone is saying that money is the same and needs to be provided to the value beyond the money of the project. But it is clear that more money is really visible for a large part of entrepreneurs.

After the project is betting through the high valuation, once the project is listed, it will not be as ugly as expected. According to Wind data, as of the end of the first quarter of 2022, 30%of the 122 new shares listed in A shares fell below the issue price on the first day of the listing, and 60%of the stock price had fallen below the issue price.

Looking at the Hong Kong stocks, according to the data of the Star Mine of Caixian Society, a total of 16 new shares landed in the Hong Kong stock market in the first quarter of 2022, and 60 % of the projects were broken. In the tide of breaking, the logic of the first and secondary markets began to change. The most direct manifestation is that it is more sensitive to valuation. Everyone hopes to buy a better target at a lower price.

The reversal valuation is based on the probability of rumors, desires and restraint

Almost all investors have a common body sensation: valuation gradually decreases.

There are many reasons for the decline in valuation, one of which is the uncertainty of investors in the background of the epidemic. "Some peer confidence is hit, dare not shot, or take a slow shot." Said a partner of a hard technology investment institution in Shanghai.

When investors are hesitant, those projects that are currently unable to make a cash flow will occur. Under the slowdown of the financing rhythm, the project has officially announced the "price reduction". In the past, although the enterprise "discounted" during the listing stage, or "principal financing", the valuation of the two rounds of the two rounds did not change much, but few officials announced the decline in valuation.

In March of this year, the consumer unicorn -chain coffee brand TIMS China publicly announced the reduction of valuations.

Since entering the Chinese market in February 2019, TIMS Coffee has publicly announced two rounds of financing. The institutions behind them are very good, including Tencent Investment, Sequoia China, Zhong Ding Capital, etc. This is the same. But the most attractive author's attention is not these, but a detail: TIMS China's pre -merger valuation was adjusted from US $ 1.688 billion to $ 1.4 billion, which reduced nearly $ 300 million in one breath.

In fact, TIMS China has adjusted valuations for the first time in China to publicly reduce valuations in the first new consumer travele.

But from a certain perspective, this is a very pragmatic approach. Starting from the second half of last year, consumer projects have entered a difficult time, and the industry's outlets are no longer, making it difficult for such projects to complete financing. There is also an artificial intelligence track. Earlier this year, a head autonomous driving project completed the first delivery of Series D financing. According to reports, when the round of financing, the corporate valuation had reached 8.5 billion US dollars (equivalent to RMB 537 537 ) 100 million yuan, an increase of about 65%compared to the previous round of financing valuation. However, half a year before this round of financing was finalized, it was reported that the project had tried to go public in the United States for listing or private equity financing for $ 12 billion.

If the valuation of $ 12 billion in rumors at the time was calculated, the valuation of the project fell 3.5 billion US dollars. In fact, the project under the name of the AI ​​unicorn is no longer a small number of valuations.

When the industry goes high, some mediocre projects also highlight the stars, but when the tide fades away, who is swimming naked, they will know at first sight, but when everyone spreads the rumors of "superb" in a certain project, the three become tigers. It is difficult for investors who do not have a fixed force.

As Buffett said, "the stock market is like a casino, everyone is gambling inside. This phenomenon is particularly obvious in the past two years and is also driven by Wall Street." This situation will sometimes be misleading.

The same is true of venture capital.

The Enlightenment of the Giant

In April, Daily Journal announced the latest positions. As of the end of March, Daily Journal Corp held 300,000 Alibaba ADR shares, a decrease of 302,000 copies compared to 602,000 at the end of last year.

Beginning in the first quarter of 2021, Munger bought Alibaba Group stocks for the first time through the Daily Journal platform, buying a total of 60.206 million Alibaba US stocks, cost about $ 109 million, and its average cost of holding may be above 160 US dollars.

And selling Alibaba this time, Munger lost about 47.83 million US dollars.

It is worth mentioning that Daily Journal's other shares in the first quarter have not changed, and Alibaba alone has been reduced. At the same time that Munger planned a small heel, SoftBank also released its 2021 financial report. In the past year, SoftBank Group loses 90 billion yuan, which is the largest losses in the forty -year history of SoftBank.

The losses of its Volticine Fund Vision Fund reached 140 billion yuan. According to the statistics of Nomura Securities, 32 of the 34 companies held in the Vision Fund publicly held in the last quarter.

On the other hand, Tiger Global Management, a world -renowned investment institution, announced that this year's losses have reached 52%, which has further expanded from 44%as of April.

Tiger Global Hedge Fund has suffered losses every month this year, setting the worst annual performance in history. As of April, the fund had suffered about $ 16 billion in losses, and was one of the largest dollar declines encountered by hedge funds.

However, in the market, Feng Shui turns, some people lose money, and some people must be full.

According to the financial report of the Blackstone Group in 2021, the net profit attributable to the company in the fourth quarter of last year was $ 1.4 billion and the year was $ 5.9 billion. Among them, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the distribution income (representing cash used to pay dividends to shareholders) soared from $ 1.7 billion a year ago to a record of $ 2.3 billion.

The financial report shows that Blackstone Group inflows 154.8 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2021. The total is not only higher than any previous quarter since the institution has recorded, but also higher than any previous year. Among them, the biggest contribution is the completion of the large -scale transactions of AIG Life and Retirement Fund and the ALLSTATE CORP. insurance. These two transactions are about 77.6 billion US dollars.

The influx of the new capital has pushed the Blackstone Group's management assets to $ 881 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, higher than the US $ 730.7 billion in the third quarter and US $ 618.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. The company's goal set in 2018 is that the asset scale in 2026 reached $ 1 trillion, which seems to be expected to achieve this goal earlier than the previous plan.

What actions did Blackstone do last year?

In the fourth quarter of 2021, Blackstone Group spent a record of $ 65.8 billion to acquire new assets of real estate, credit, private equity and hedge fund investment portfolio. The large -scale investment includes the privatization of the US data center operator QTS Realty Trust Inc for $ 6.7 billion, and acquired the US apartment leasing company HOME Partners of American for $ 6 billion to win the sea holdings for $ 1.3 billion. Equity of US International Data Group.

In addition to Blackstone, KKR revenue was 16.2 billion US dollars, and Core's total revenue was US $ 8.8 billion. From the results, the three major PEs in the world have made money. In the past year, these three institutions have a common place: whale swallow fundraising.

In 2022, China stocks fell out of the fundamental aspect, and US stocks had rebuilt sharply. If you want to cross the cycle, the PE giant seems to give a unified answer: continuous fundraising.

After returning to the beginning of the article, if it is not retired, it is difficult to raise funds. This seems to be a dead cycle. But this also gives investors a warning. Do n’t have money, throw it at will.

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