Eight chief economists put the pulse of the Chinese economy: the pace of economic recovery in the second half of the year will accelerate the fiscal and monetary policy.

The first half of 2022 is about to end. Looking back at the influence of super -expected factors such as the complicated and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic in the first half of the year, the downward pressure of economic operation has increased. In the face of difficulties, my country has introduced a policy and measures to stabilize the economy. It has also introduced supporting measures in various places to promote economic operations to increase good factors and increase market confidence.

The current international environment is still complicated and severe, and inflation is higher. What is the economic situation in the second half of the year? How should my country's macro policies respond? On June 26, "Securities Daily" reporters interviewed Qiu Xiaohua, chief economist of Jufeng Investment, Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Securities, Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, and Chen Cai Securities Chief Economist Chen Li Zhiheng, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, and Xu Yang, chief economist of Hong Kong Zhongrui Fund. Eight chief economists generally believe that the growth rate of GDP in the first half of this year may be around 3%. In the second half of the year, fiscal and monetary policy needs to increase efforts, and the pace of economic recovery will accelerate.

It is expected to be GDP in the second quarter

A year -on -year increase of 1%to 2%

Faced with the complicated and severe external environment and the economic downward pressure brought about by the domestic epidemic impact, based on the original steady growth policy and measures, in May, the State Council further introduced the "Policy and Measures for the Economy". Measures, localities are actively implementing the central requirements and introducing stable economic measures in accordance with localities. These measures are expected to gradually work in June and will promote economic recovery.

Chen Li said that although the disturbance caused by the preliminary epidemic has not yet completely faded, the trend of recovery of enterprise production is unchanged. It is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the first half of this year is 3.5%.

Dong Zhongyun believes that in June, the sales of commercial houses have been significantly recovered, which is expected to accelerate the repair of domestic demand. With the continuous implementation of the steady growth policy, the economic presentation in the second quarter will be presented first and then upward. It is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter is below 2%, and the growth rate of GDP in the first half of the year may be around 3%. Under the influence of the continued improvement of the economy and the base effect, it is expected that the growth rate of GDP will rise significantly in the second half of the year.

"With the continuous efforts of the steady growth policy, the economy has recovered in May." Luo Zhiheng predicts that GDP in the second quarter would increase by 1%to 2%year -on -year, about 3%in the first half of the year, and the growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is expected to return to 5%to 5% , V -type trend throughout the year.

Qiu Xiaohua also believes that from May data, it can be seen that the trend of economic recovery is obvious. GDP is expected to increase by 1%-2%year-on-year in the second quarter. The growth rate of GDP in the third and fourth quarters must reach 7%in order to ensure that the annual GDP growth rate is maintained above 5.5%.

Obviously, in the first half of the year, my country's economy faced greater difficulties and challenges, and GDP only achieved a growth rate of 4.8%in the first quarter. Since the second quarter, many economic indicators have fallen into negative growth range in April and May. In this case, my country has taken strong measures in a timely manner. The logistics and supply chain issues have been significantly alleviated since May. As the support measures for investment and consumption have gradually landed, it is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter is expected to achieve slightly positive growth.

The market focus in the second half of the year will be concentrated

Policy implementation and conduction

In order to achieve the target of about 5.5%of the year, how will macro policies make efforts in the second half of the year?

"In terms of monetary policy, financial support should continue to increase financial support for the real economy." Luo Zhiheng believes that in the second half of the year, we can consider further reduction of interest rates, reducing the cost of physical financing, and boosting credit demand. At the same time, use more structural tools to clear the conduction channels of "wide currency" to "wide credit" to guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, and green development.

Dong Zhongyun believes that the rapid tightening of external liquidity will bring certain restraints on the relaxed domestic liquidity. The internal liquidity can maintain the current abundant state, provide the basis for wide credit, and continue to guide the LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) to reduce the lowering of the LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) reduction. , Promote the benefit of finance to the real economy.

In Zhang Jun's opinion, the policy in the second half of the year is mainly fiscal, and more importantly, it is more important to pass the monetary policy transmission mechanism to promote the implementation of the financial policy. In May, monetary credit data showed that residents and enterprises were insufficient to increase leverage. In the future, the increase in increase policy is mainly focused on fiscal. Special government bonds and new special debt quotas issued in 2023 to increase infrastructure investment.

Dong Zhongyun also believes that fiscal policies can consider issuing special government bonds to expand their financial expenditure capabilities. At the same time, we should focus on strengthening the financial expenditure of the main body and promoting employment. For enterprise departments, corporate cash flow should be improved through various aspects such as taxation, subsidies, and financing. The development of government financing guarantee funds in various governments should be accelerated, the government financing guarantee system should be improved, and services such as financing guarantee and liquidity support are provided for enterprises in difficulty. For residential departments, considering consumer vouchers and other forms can further increase consumer subsidies for residents.

"It is expected that the focus of investors and the market will focus on the implementation of the preliminary policy and the transmission of policies." For example, Zhang Jun said that at present, the inter -bank market is abundant and interest rates are already relatively low in history. Investors will pay more attention to future currency Whether the policy transmission mechanism can be opened, cooperating with the implementation of fiscal policies to reverse the sluggish financing demand, and effectively reduce corporate financing costs.

Bo Wenxi said that the market in the second half of the year generally expects macro policies such as finance and currency to make further efforts. It is recommended that on the basis of accelerating the repair of market confidence, comprehensive improving strategies to stimulate the vitality and innovative driving force of market players. Infrastructure investment

It is an important starting point for steady growth

From the perspective of micro levels, where is the key point to promote economic growth? From the perspective of several chief economists, infrastructure investment is one of the important points.

"Infrastructure investment is an important starting point for my country's economic stable growth, which can increase the potential growth rate of the economy. The 3.45 trillion yuan special bonds issued this year will be basically issued by the end of June. Chen Li believes that in the future, the field of water conservancy is expected to become the key direction of infrastructure investment. One is the major water network construction project, which will continue to play a leading role in steady growth and stability. The second is the construction and modernization of county and rural water conservancy facilities. In addition, the scope of infrastructure REITs may further expand and enhance market vitality.

Since the beginning of this year, my country's water conservancy construction has been accelerated in an all -round way. Data from the Ministry of Water Conservancy showed that the amount of investment in water conservancy construction was 310.8 billion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 54%year -on -year. Recently, a number of major water conservancy projects started. For example, on June 25, the construction of Huanghan Zhara Reconstruction Project, Hunan Daxingzhai Reservoir Project, and Anhui Baoyuhe River Governance Project were started. They were all one of the 150 major water conservancy projects deployed by the State Council.

Dong Zhongyun said that infrastructure investment needs to expand the fields and should combine the direction of my country to increase scientific and technological innovation and promote new infrastructure.

Xu Yang suggested that traditional infrastructure should leverage more financial resources to guide the market's confidence in infrastructure investment. At the same time, in terms of new infrastructure, actively encourage private capital to participate, drive more market investment, so as to achieve stable investment more effectively.

Zhang Jun said that the demand can be pulled by promoting consumption and effective investment. For example, relaxation of car purchase restrictions and exemption of passenger cars, due to urban policies to support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize approval and start a number of large -scale infrastructure projects.

Obviously, the most important thing that promotes economic recovery in micro is to stabilize and stabilize market entities. On the one hand, the number of college students this year will continue to reach a record high, and on the other hand, the market entity operating pressure is greater. The efforts should be focused on stabilizing market entities and creating new jobs.

Input inflation risk

Relatively controllable

Recently, various countries have announced price data in May, and high inflation has become a common phenomenon. For example, in May, the US and British CPIs increased by 8.6%and 9.1%year -on -year, a new high. Among them, the US price exceeded expected, and it reached a new high of 40 years after March. In this context, it is the focus of market attention to the formation of input inflation pressure in my country.

"In the second half of the year, the risk of input inflation faced in my country mainly comes from international oil prices and food prices." Luo Zhiheng analyzed that in terms of oil prices, geopolitical conflicts caused tight international crude oil supply, and neither OPEC nor US shale oil was increased significantly. As they increased significantly, as they were increased significantly. Demands such as transportation will resume, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. In terms of grain prices, the four factors of geopolitical conflict, rising costs, climate change, and speculative transactions may affect the global food supply and demand pattern.

From the perspective of clearly, the input inflation pressure does exist, and it is relatively controllable.

"In terms of energy, my country's energy structure is mainly coal, and the impact of oil prices on domestic energy prices is relatively controllable. Recently, my country has strongly guaranteed the supply of coal and stable prices." Obviously, in terms of food Pay attention to the high self -sufficiency rate in the country, and the weight of food in CPI is not large. In terms of response methods, as long as the supply and stability measures have continued in the first half of the year, the risk of input inflation can be effectively controlled.

Xu Yang also has a similar point of view.他表示，“由于我国粮食、煤炭等都已基本实现自给自足，有足够空间应对外围的高通胀。因此我国在输入性通胀方面并不会出现整体性风险，未来影响也不会特别大，但Keep vigilant. "

Bo Wenxi believes that the current international energy price and the price of large raw materials are running at a high level and there is fluctuation risk. The possibility of international food prices has a new high, and the pressure on domestic input inflation is still not small. To this end, it is necessary to actively respond to enhance domestic energy product production capacity and supply and guarantee capabilities. On the one hand, it promotes the diversification of large raw materials and imported food sources. On the other hand, domestic production is encouraged to stabilize supply, thereby promoting domestic price increases to maintain a reasonable range.

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