Why is the "peak season is not strong in the high season and the off -season is fading".

After a wave of price increases in mid -June, recently, many paper manufacturers including Chenming Paper and APPs and other paper manufacturers again issued a price increase letter. Since July 1, the price of paper species of the company has been raised on the basis of June. Raise 200 yuan/ton.

Facing the industry dilemma of "always building the bottom and climbing upside down" in the first half of the year, the paper industry once again "shouted".

"If a word is used to describe the situation of the paper industry since this year, it is 'profitable'." Liu Hui, an analyst of Zhuochuang Information Industry, said in an interview with the Securities Daily. The conduction has encountered weak terminal demand. "The peak season is not strong and the off -season is lighter." The cost pressure transmission is difficult, resulting in the narrowing of the industry's profit.

In the second half of the year, the traditional peak season of the industry has fallen, but in the current background, the papermaking industry will be predicted by some institutions: demand recovery, cost decrease, and improvement of profit? Can a new round of paper companies rising the price of rising prices?

Paper companies' "shouting up" difficult enemy needs weak demand

Zhuochuang Information Monitoring data shows that from early January to June 24th, 2022, the average price of white card paper in the pulp series was 6248 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 28%, and the average price of copper paper was 5538 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 16.79 %, The average price of double gum paper is 6016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.12%year -on -year; the average price of corrugated paper in the waste paper system is about 3796 yuan/ton in the first half of this year, a year -on -year decrease of 2.76%, and the average price of box paper is 4865 yuan// Tons, a slight increase of 0.9%year -on -year, maintained equivalent to the same period last year. The average price of paper for wood pulp's lifestyle paper was 7013 yuan/ton in the first half of the year, an increase of 11.18%year -on -year.

Why do you feel that the paper company "shouts up", but most of the prices of paper planting are declining? Mr. Shi, the head of a large paper packaging enterprise in Zibo, Shandong, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Since this year, the cost of raw materials is high, paper companies have the difficulty of paper companies, but the terminal demand is weak and the recovery needs process. Our packaging companies are also abnormal Difficulty, counting, many rounds of paper companies shouted that they could not land effectively in the end. "

Liu Hui explained the situation of the paper industry in May and June as an example of the implementation of the price of paper companies as an example. "In addition to the recent life paper, the implementation of the remaining finished paper price increases is weak. For example, there will be a 1200 yuan/ton of life paper in May, and the increase of 1,000 yuan/ton in the last month; The paper announced the increase of 100-150 yuan/ton, and it was very good to implement the increase of 50 yuan/ton in the end; it was even more difficult to increase cultural paper. Tons. "Liu Hui said.

The reason is the contradictions and games between supply and demand.

From a cost perspective, for pulp and paper species such as cultural paper, white card paper, the continuous high vibration of pulp prices has brought huge cost pressure to paper companies. Analysts of a light industrial industry of a domestic securities firm introduced to the "Securities Daily" reporter that in fact, the price of imported wood pulp has continued to rise since December 2021. In the first quarter of this year, due to the continuous supply of supply on the international market, the price of multi -party games pushed up the price of pulp prices. , And drive the slurry price period to be linked, the price of pulp in the second quarter continued to fluctuate as a whole. Zhuochuang Information Monitoring data shows that the price of broad -leaved wood pulp in June this year rose nearly 30%compared with early January.

"For waste paper systems, including corrugated, box plates, whiteboard paper, etc., relatively speaking, raw material gains are not as fierce as the pulp system, basically they are flat or slightly increased, but labor costs and energy prices are also rising." Liu Hui said Essence

In order to alleviate or pass on the upstream cost pressure, paper companies can only conduct transmission downstream in the form of price increase letter. However, due to the factors such as the epidemic, the terminal demand is weak, so the sound reduction of downstream processing and packaging companies is endless.

"The paper industry is basically 'to see no fall.' Only when the price increases, it will send a letter, and the price reduction is generally dark." Liu Hui said that even if the paper company Yueyue "shouted", it was still difficult to enemy demand in the end. The weakness of the end caused most of the paper prices in the first half of the year to decline.

Is the profit restoration of paper companies in the second half of the year?

At present, the performance in the second quarter has not yet been released. From the performance of the paper industry in the first quarter, it can be seen that in the first quarter of this year, among the listed companies of 22 paper industry (Shenwan Industry) in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A -shares, although only the Meiliyun family loses losses, the rest of 21 have achieved profitability, but compared with the same period of 2021, the net profit of 18 companies has declined to varying degrees.

When the Everbright Securities reviews the papermaking industry's situation this year, it has been said that the large papermaking sector has reached the double bottom of the fundamental and valuations; the special paper sector has survived the "dark moment" in the first quarter of this year.

"The core contradiction point of the current domestic paper industry's weak prosperity in the papermaking sector is domestic demand." Everbright Securities pointed out that with the exposure of the steady growth policy, the prosperity of the domestic paper industry will effectively improve; as for the special paper sector, the special paper sector will be It is expected that the next performance is expected to show a quarter -on -quarter trend with the price increase and subsequent slurry prices.

Liu Hui also believes that "this round of shouting has not only continued the situation of the industry's" shouting and stopping 'in the first half of the year, and it is also a practice of the industry. Because in the second half of the year, the traditional peak season of the paper industry will be opened. The peak season of printing and publishing is gradually coming, and the price of cultural paper is expected to gradually rise. This round of shouting can also be regarded as a horn of warmth in the industry. "The aforementioned brokerage analyst told the Securities Daily reporter," At the beginning of this year The factors are gradually alleviating, and the price of pulp in the dual weak pattern of supply and demand is expected to return to the fundamental aspect. The expected expectations of the demand for finished paper terminals still exist, and the demand terminal is weak or hopes to consume consumption after the epidemic. " Gradually, when the subsequent consumption environment is improved, the inventory of paper companies goes well, and the possibility of rising during the peak season is not ruled out.

Talking about the changes in the future paper industry pattern, Liu Hui believes that due to multiple factors this year, large paper factories are in the process of steady expansion, the elimination process of small paper factories has not completely accelerated, and the industry concentration improvement is not obvious for the time being.

However, the high fluctuations of international pulp prices make the advantages of head enterprises with the ability to integrate forests and paper. IPG China Chief Economist Bo Wenxi told the reporter of the Securities Daily that at present, the competitive advantage of companies such as the "forest and paper" such as the sun paper and the morning paper industry is more competitive. In terms of the development pattern of the paper industry with a high dependence, it is indeed "the world."

Reporter Wang Yan

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