Why did the "peak season are not strong and the off -season is even fading" in the first half of the year, why dare to shout the price of the second half of the year?

Wen | Wang Yan

After a round of price increases in mid -June, recently, many paper manufacturers including Chenming Paper and APPs again issued a price increase letter, announcing that since July 1, the price of paper species of the company has been raised on the basis of June. Raise 200 yuan/ton. Faced with the industry dilemma of "always building the bottom and climbing upside down" in the first half of the year, the paper industry once again sounded the horn of "shouting and stopping" in the second half of the year. "If a word is used to describe the situation of the paper industry since this year, it is 'profitable'." Liu Hui, an analyst of Zhuochuang Information Industry, said in an interview with the Securities Daily. The conduction has encountered weak terminal demand. "The peak season is not strong and the off -season is lighter." The cost pressure transmission is difficult, resulting in the narrowing of the industry's profit. In the second half of the year, the traditional peak season of the industry has fallen, but in the current background, the papermaking industry will be predicted by some institutions: demand recovery, cost decrease, and improvement of profit? Can a new round of paper companies rising the price of rising prices? Multiple rounds of price increases are difficult to land. "It can’t be remembered how many times the price increase letter issued by paper mills in the first half of the year." Mr. Shi, the head of a large paper packaging company in Zibo, Shandong, told the Securities Daily reporter: " , High costs such as raw materials, and paper companies have no time to have paper companies. However, the terminal demand is weak and the process of recovery needs. Our packaging companies are also extremely difficult. In accordance with, many rounds of paper companies have not been able to land effectively. "Liu Hui was 5 In June, the implementation of the price of paper companies' price increases was explained to reporters the situation of the "dilemma" of the paper industry. "In addition to the recent life paper, the implementation of the remaining finished paper price increases is weak. For example, there will be a 1200 yuan/ton of life paper in May, and the increase of 1,000 yuan/ton in the last month; The paper announced the increase of 100-150 yuan/ton, and it was very good to implement the increase of 50 yuan/ton in the end; it was even more difficult to increase cultural paper. It was announced in May that the price increased by 300 yuan/ton, and the actual increase was implemented by 50 yuan. /Ton, "Liu Hui said. The reason is the contradictions and games between supply and demand. From a cost perspective, for pulp and paper species such as cultural paper, white card paper, the continuous high vibration of pulp prices has brought huge cost pressure to paper companies. An analyst of a light industrial industry of a domestic securities firm introduced to the "Securities Daily" reporter that in fact, the imported wood pulp has continued to rise since December 2021. In the first quarter of this year, due to the continuous information of the international market supply, the game of many parties pushed up the price of pulp. And drive the slurry price period to link, and the price of pulp in the second quarter continued to fluctuate as a whole. Zhuochuang Information Monitoring data shows that the price of broad -leaved wood pulp in June this year rose by nearly 30%compared with the early January. "For waste paper systems, including corrugated, box plates, whiteboard paper, etc., relatively speaking, raw material gains are not as fierce as the pulp system, basically they are flat or slightly increased, but labor costs and energy prices are also rising." Liu Hui said Essence In order to alleviate or pass on the upstream cost pressure, paper companies can only conduct transmission downstream in the form of price increase letter. However, due to the factors such as the epidemic, the terminal demand is weak, so the sound reduction of downstream processing and packaging companies is endless. "Basically, the paper industry is" seeing the ups and downs ", only when the price increases, it will send a letter, and the price reduction is generally dark." Liu Hui said, so even if the paper company Yueyue "shouted", it was still difficult to enemy in the end. The weakness of the demand side has caused most of the paper prices of most paper species in the first half of the year. Zhuochuang Information Monitoring data shows that from early January to June 24th, 2022, the average price of white card paper in the pulp series was 6248 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 28%, and the average price of copper paper was 5538 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 16.79 %, The average price of double gum paper is 6016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.12%year -on -year; the average price of corrugated paper in the waste paper system is about 3796 yuan/ton in the first half of this year, a year -on -year decrease of 2.76%, and the average price of box paper is 4865 yuan// Tons, a slight increase of 0.9%year -on -year, maintained equivalent to the same period last year. Only the price of wood pulp's lifestyle paper increased a certain percentage in the first half of the year, with an average price of 7013 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.18%year -on -year. Is the profit restoration of paper companies in the second half of the year? Although the current performance in the second quarter has not yet been released, it can be seen from the performance of the first quarter of the paper industry. In the first quarter of this year, among the listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares (Shenwan Industry) listed companies, although only the Meiyun family had a loss The remaining 21 companies have achieved profitability, but compared with the same period of 2021, the net profit of 18 companies has declined to varying degrees. Everbright Securities reviewed the paper light industry since 2022, and believes that the large papermaking sector has reached the double bottom of the fundamentals and valuations; the special paper sector has survived the "dark moment" in the first quarter of this year. "The core contradiction point of the domestic paper industry's weak prosperity in the papermaking industry is domestic demand." Everbright Securities analysis pointed out that with the effect of stable growth policies, domestic demand has improved, and the prosperity of the domestic paper industry will effectively improve; As for the special paper sector, after the "dark moment" in the first quarter, it is expected that the next performance is expected to show up a quarter -ups -in -quarter trend with the price increase and subsequent slurry prices. In the interview, Liu Hui also believed that "this round of shouting is not only the situation of the industry's" shouting and stopping "in the first half of the year, but also a convention in the industry.

Because in the second half of the year, the traditional peak season of the paper industry will be opened. If the peak season of textbook printing and publication will gradually come, the price of cultural paper is expected to gradually rise. This round of shouting can also be regarded as a horn of the industry's warmth. "Just according to the current situation, the expected release space is still relatively limited. For the development of the market, we temporarily maintain a cautious view." The aforementioned brokerage analyst told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "At the beginning of this year, the international wood pulp supply end disturbance was affected by the end of this year. The factors are gradually alleviating, and the price of pulp in the dual weak pattern of supply and demand is expected to return to the fundamental aspect. The expected expectations of the demand for finished paper terminals still exist, and the demand terminal is weak or hopes to consume consumer production and restoration after the epidemic. " In June, the situation of the epidemic in many places eased and stimulated the stimulation of shopping festivals. Under the improvement of the subsequent consumption environment, the inventory of paper companies went smoothly, and the possibility of probation in the peak season was not ruled out. Talking about the changes in the papermaking industry since this year and the future, Liu Hui believes that due to multiple factors this year, large paper factories are in the process of steady expansion. Not obvious. However, the high fluctuations of international pulp prices make the advantages of head enterprises with the ability to integrate forests and paper. IPG China Chief Economist Bo Wenxi told the reporter of the Securities Daily that at present, the competitive advantage of companies such as the "forest and paper" such as the sun paper and the morning paper industry is more competitive. In terms of the development pattern of the paper industry with a high dependence, it is indeed "the world." Recommended reading

The revised rules of the Securities and Futures Commission strictly manage the "fake foreign capital" to further improve the Shanghai -Shenzhen -Hong Kong -connected mechanism

Supreme Law: Four aspects of escort New Third Board and the North Stock Exchange reform and development

Image | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com Editor | Caushan Dan Trial | Li Chunlian Final Audit | Zhang Ye

- END -