Zheng's eyes look at the epidemic, the epidemic is close, the recovery market continues, I want to participate in these two points

This week's A -shares fluctuated upward, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.99%throughout the week. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 2.88%throughout the week, the GEM index rose 6.29%, and the 50 index of science and technology innovation rose 0.86%. The GEM Extraordinary Weights Ningde Times (SZ3000750, the stock price of 563.5 yuan, a market value of 1313.4 billion yuan) has risen by 15.93%this week. In contrast, SMIC (SH688981, the stock price of 45.05 yuan, and a market value of 356.3 billion yuan) has not risen this week.

Photo source: Photo Network-500480841

The trend of A shares in the first three days of this week, but the trend of Thursday and Friday has changed again. On Wednesday, the country often launched a lot of benefits including stimulating the automotive industry. The market digestion of the market on Thursday. At that time, countless automotive industry chain stocks soared and drove the stock index against a large counterattack. By Friday, there were many favorable news stimulus related to the epidemic, and tourism stocks were strengthened.

The high probability of A -share next week will continue to benefit from the improvement of the domestic epidemic. On Saturday, the Shanghai Municipal Government announced: "We have won the Greater Shanghai Defense War!" In terms of the national epidemic, since June 15, the number of new infections in the country has been below 100 in the country, and in the past week The number of infections is less than 50 cases. In addition, more and more provinces have announced the relaxation restrictions on tourists from other provinces.

The peripheral factors are also beneficial to A shares. On the one hand, the United States is likely to reduce some tariffs on Chinese commodities in China, and on the other hand, the RMB trend is much stronger than the previous period. The US Treasury yield of US Treasury bonds has declined significantly this week, which makes the RMB exchange rate have a better chance in the future.

The United States may still raise interest rates in the future, but the obvious interest rate hike opportunity may be in July, September, and November. It is estimated that the United States will raise interest rates by 75 base points in July. In September and November, a total of 50 base points may be raised. The total interest rate hikes have a total of 175 base points. In theory, although there is still a possibility of interest rate hikes in theory, if the United States has entered a recession earlier, it will no longer be established. In other words, the interest rate hike cycle in the United States may no longer seem so "long".

In the context of a sharp decline in the epidemic, most listed companies have become positive. This has been initially reflected in many stocks this week. For example, home appliance stocks, which have always been weak, have also risen. Next, such performance improvement expectations are likely to slowly affect more stocks, and when most stocks are slowly raised, the focus of the stock index is also expected to rise.

At present, investors should generally choose industry stock involved in the industry that "hit the epidemic" in the early stage, and those stocks that have not yet fully displayed those stock prices should be preferably the potential upward space for such stocks.

Of course, stock speculation is a bit uncertain at any time. The uncertainty is mainly the mid -term statement that will be announced in the near future. Because most of these companies are impacted by the epidemic in the second quarter, the half -year financial report will not be ugly. Essence It may be difficult to see the semi -annual report, and the company is expected to have a good performance in the second half of the year, of course, investors can also participate, but when participating

The first point is whether the semi -annual report is fully reflected in the expectations, or whether investors still have fantasies. If everyone has identified poor performance, then such stocks are relatively more worthy of participation. On the contrary, if everyone can't understand the impact of the company, then such companies actually have some "small mines" attributes.

The second point is that the future performance recovery speed of related companies must have a basic judgment, because the performance recovery speed of different types of companies is very different. For example, the resumption of individual stocks in the automotive industry chain is much better, and the policy of stimulating car consumption is more sufficient, so the performance of such companies may recover faster. In contrast, the performance of catering consumer and theater companies may recover slightly, while airports, shipping, tourism and other may be slightly better.

As for hot technology stocks, although investors can pay attention, they may pay more attention to band operations than early, and should not be overly chased. There will be a fixed number of market funds and enthusiasm. When many listed companies that are most attacked by the epidemic are likely to cause more funds to participate, the ability and popularity of technology stocks are temporarily suppressed.

The author has opened a column on the WeChat platform. Readers can directly view the author's latest point of view through WeChat every Sunday to Thursday evening. For details, please pay attention to the WeChat public account. Each Eye (WeChat: NJCJNEWS) can be followed (WeChat: NJCJNEWS)

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