Wen Finance (58) ｜ What does Moutai return to 2,000 yuan?

On June 24, Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 0.89%to close 3349.75 points. A total of 101 stocks rose daily limit. The market can be described as high.

In the day of trading, a stock was only up 2.65%, but it was still noticeable. This is Guizhou Maotai -2,000 yuan again, with a total market value of more than 2.5 trillion yuan again.

On the same day, Moutai opened high, up to 2020 yuan in the market, and closed for 2009.01 yuan. The last time it closed above 2,000 yuan, it was still reported to 2024 yuan on January 5 this year.

【one】

The last attention of the "Cultural Finance" was on August 2, 2021. The title is "Will Moutai's stock price return to 2,000 yuan?" ", Moutai hit a new low of 1678.99 yuan on July 30 of that year.

At that time, the judgment given by the "Cultural Management" was that Moutai was expected to return to 2,000 yuan in a short time. Although Moutai is still a good scarce core asset in the long run, it needs to be adjusted for a long time in the range of 1500-2000 yuan. It is precisely because of the heavy stocks of the institution, the repeatability of the process will be more obvious.

Now looking back, the judgment of its repetitiveness is accurate, but I still did not expect that Moutai's repetition was so great. The fact is that after Moutai hit a new low of 1525.5 yuan on August 20 of that year, a round of rebound began. Until December 8th, it returned to 2,000 yuan and closed at 243 yuan. By December 24th, the highest touched 2216.96 yuan, and after receiving it at 2194.09 yuan, it turned around again -far from reaching the 2601 yuan height created on February 10 of the same year. Entering 2022, Moutai saw a minimum of 1593 yuan on March 16. It is worth noting that on April 26, at the lowest 2886 points during the context of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Maotai rose 1.43%to close at 1732.48 yuan. That is, Moutai is obviously earlier than the bottom of the market and began to rebound. On June 16, Moutai held a shareholders' meeting. The next day, Maotai rose 3.94%to close at 1951 yuan and stood on the 1900 yuan mark until the return of 2,000 yuan.

Judging from the trend in the past two years, 1500 yuan can basically be clearly a large outsole of Maotai, and 2000-2200 yuan has also become a pressure line of Maotai. As for whether you can stand above 2,000 yuan this time, you need to look at Moutai's performance support and future imagination.

【two】

This time, Moutai weighs 2,000 yuan, which is a result of the effect of the sector effect and the continuous rise of the broader market.

On June 24, the China Securities Liquor Index rose 1.54%, and then set a new high rebound in the closing price, which closed at 16539.69 points. Compared with the 13168.98 lows touched on March 28, the rebound was 25.6%.

In the liquor sector, the starting point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was bottomed out on April 27. Lao Baijian wine ranked first with a cumulative increase of 47.28%. Moutai's stock price increased in the 14th place in 19 library stocks. Since April 27, the total market value of 19 liquor stocks has increased by 709 billion yuan, of which Maotai has increased by 347.4 billion yuan, and Wuliangye has increased by 102.9 billion yuan.

【three】

Specifically, in Moutai, in recent times, it is a good frequent pass.

On June 16, Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Guizhou Maotai, said at the shareholders' meeting that Moutai's total revenue in 2022 will increase by about 15%compared with the previous year. This greatly boosted market confidence. Its background is that since Moutai's 2019 revenue exceeds 100 billion yuan, Moutai's growth targets in 2020 and 2021 have been around 10%.

Since September 2021, Moutai has successively launched a series of new products such as treasure Moutai, Maotai 1935, 100ml 53%flying Moutai, and Maotai ice cream. Taking the 100ml53%Feitian Moutai priced at 399 yuan, it means that 500ml53%Feitian Maotai reached 1995 yuan. In the first quarter of this year, Guizhou Moutai achieved operating income of 32.296 billion yuan, an increase of 18.43%year -on -year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 17.245 billion yuan, an increase of 23.58%year -on -year.

The "I Moutai", which was launched on March 31 and officially launched on May 19, provided new wings for Moutai to expand digital marketing. As of June 14, I Moutai has achieved operating income of 3 billion to 4 billion yuan, and the number of registered people is close to 17 million.

On June 23, Moutai, Guizhou, issued an announcement that in 2021, it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 216.75 yuan (tax) for every 10 shares of the company's shareholders, with a total of 27.228 billion yuan in profits. Compared with the total amount of 24.2 billion yuan in the previous year, the cash dividend increased by nearly 3 billion yuan, the highest dividend in history.

On June 25, "I Moutai" announced in Shanghai to launch the "Appointment and Sales" and "Online Sales" activities in Shanghai. In the case of the situation where the prevention and control situation of the Shanghai epidemic is fundamentally reversed and continued to consolidate, the expected expectations of boosting consumption confidence to restart consumption of consumption are very strong. After all, the stock market reflects expectations.

【Four】

On the consumer side, Moutai's pricing has always been highly concerned by the market. In view of the obvious difference between pricing and market price, the expectations of Moutai's price increase have always existed.

Some people take the 100ml53%Feitian Moutai priced at 399 yuan as an example. The actual price of 500ml53%of 500ml 500ml 500ml of 1499 yuan should reach 1995 yuan. Therefore, the market speculates that the public opinion of Moutai's price increase has even been given a specific amount of 500 yuan. On June 26, according to the Financial Association, there are recent market rumors that starting on July 1, "I Moutai" will launch "500 ml 53 degrees flying Moutai" at a price of 1599 yuan/bottle. Affected by this, the market prices of Feitian Maotai ended on June 24 and 25, which fell for two consecutive days. Among them, products such as Maotai, boutique Moutai and zodiac wines on the 25th fell to varying degrees. On the evening of June 25, "Xiao Mao I Moutai" WeChat publicly claimed: "I Moutai's launch products and sales models remain unchanged, and there is no plan to raise prices. Everything is based on official information." This actually means At least this year, 500ml53%priced at 1499 yuan will remain unchanged.

In this regard, I personally believe that the room for Moutai's price increase will undoubtedly exist for a long time. But this is just an economic account. In fact, in Moutai's pricing strategy, it is even more important to calculate the overall situation. That is, it is one thing to rise or not, and it is another thing to determine whether it is rising. In a certain sense, Moutai has long been an indicator of financial products. The orientation of price increases is very obvious, so it must be very cautious. This is like the RMB is bound to be very cautious about the large -scale banknotes issued more than 100 yuan. Moutai can re -activate the liquor market, but it does not mean that it is necessary to take the lead in price increases. As for the price increase of 500 yuan, its price increase has reached 33.3%, which is even more impossible -especially when the 500ml flying Moutai price is denied to 1599 yuan. Earlier, individuals have repeatedly emphasized that national conditions have determined that Moutai cannot become luxury goods. It can only be the high -end consumer goods of the Chinese people at the most important moment in life.

Therefore, the growth of Moutai's profit growth cannot come from prices in the near future, and its larger way is to expand production and diversified operations. It should be reminded that the launch of "I Moutai" and the launch of Moutai ice cream cannot be underestimated, which may be hidden with huge growth points. Just like Dong Yuhui and Dongfang's explosion, if you are not online, who can think of everything now?

As for whether Moutai's stock price can stand firmly in 2,000 yuan is the result of the common effects of the market. An obvious feeling is that if Moutai has stabilized 2,000 yuan a day, then the possibility of falling back to 2,000 yuan in the future will be one point.

Source ｜ Jingbao APP

Reporter: Hu Wen

Figure: Xu Qingdong

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