More than 10%of the convertible bond funds fell more than 10%during the year. Where are the opportunities after the new regulations?

With the gradual recovery of the A -share market, the attributes of the convertible bonds "share bonds" have been attracted by the market again, and some convertible bond funds show a "blood return" state. From April 27th to June 23rd, 16 convertible bond funds products have a range yield of more than 15%. However, from the perspective of data from the year, more than 50%of the products still declined by more than 10%.

At the same time, the new regulations for strengthening convertible bond transactions recently announced have also made the market ripple. Industry insiders said that restricting surge and decline and monitoring abnormal trading behaviors are mainly aimed at the current boom of the current convertible bond market. On the other hand, the current convertible bond market has continued to expand, and there are no shortage of outstanding listed companies that have issued or to be issued to convertible bonds. Long -term viewing of configured convertible bonds can have a good expected return.

Some convertible bond funds have "returned blood"

Since the beginning of this year, the former convertible bond fund has suddenly "dumb". In the context of the comprehensive decline in the stock market in the first four months, more than 90%of convertible bond funds fell more than 10%, and the largest decline in the year exceeded 30%. However, since the market rebounded at the end of April, some convertible bond funds' performance of the performance of the convertible bond funds has risen rapidly.

Wind data shows that as of June 23, in addition to the newly established funds this year, the 68 convertible bond products existing data on the market (calculated separately at different shares, the same below) have increased the average range since April 27 13%, the increase of 4 products exceeds 20%.

But in terms of stretching time, the overall performance of convertible bond funds has not been satisfactory this year, and the average yield of the year is only -9.42%. Among them, in addition to Baoying Rongyuan convertible bond A/C, which obtained 4.32%and 4.18%of positive income, the remaining 66 products were negative during the year, and more than 50%of the products fell by more than 10%during the year.

From the perspective of the fund size (total share), the total scale of the above fund in the first quarter of this year was 59.5 billion yuan, which was nearly 30 % from the 42.7 billion yuan at the end of 2021; The scale of the fund A of China Convertible A Treaster A has decreased by more than 3 billion yuan in a quarter.

Talking about the continuous adjustment of this year's convertible bond market, Deng Dong, general manager of the Baoying Fund's solidarity department, told the First Finance that "the valuation of the convertible bond in early 2021 was different from the credit risk incident. After the market with a double strong debt, the annual convertible bond valuation in 2022 was at a historical high, and the equity index followed the weakened economic fundamentals and the epidemic disturbance entered the decline. ","

Xu Fuqiang, manager of Rongtong Convertible Bond Fund, also pointed out that "Generally speaking, the income of convertible bonds mainly comes from the stock price of the corresponding stocks of the convertible bond. In the first half of this year, the domestic A -share market was suffered from overseas risk incidents and domestic epidemic. In the impact, most of the convertible bonds fell sharply, so the convertible bonds also had a significant callback. Overall, in the process of market decline, the conversion premium rate had a passive increase, and the recovery of the convertible bond index was called back. To be less than the market. "

Facing the market callback since May, Xu Fuqiang said that the convertible debt has also risen to a certain extent in this round of rebound, but the overall is weaker than the rights and interest markets, and the premium premium rate has compressed. Although the premium rate of convertible bonds has compressed with the rise in the market, it is still at a high level since 2019, and its cost -effective relative equity is still weak.

From the perspective of valuation, He Jian analyzed by He Jian, the head of the convertible bond investment research team and fund manager of the Tianhong Fund Hybrid Assets Department, pointed out that last year, the overall revenue was undoubtedly reduced to the height of this year. The convertible bond market is still in the market that has been valuable for the valuation since 18 years. After market pressure testing in March and April this year, we believe that this valuation is highly possible to maintain. The supply and demand structure can be significantly improved and supported.

"The valuation of the positive stocks of the convertible bonds is still in the repair range, the valuation of the convertible bonds maintains a high level of shock as a whole, and the premium rate of the variety of convertible bonds with a high conversion rate overdue the rise expectations of the positive stocks. At the same time, there is also a low premium rate. Variety. "Deng Dongru said.

Supervisory shots to suppress the hype boom

When convertible bond funds are still struggling at the net value side, a new regulations for strengthening convertible bond transactions have aroused high attention in the capital market.

On June 17, the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities issued the "Notice on the Proper Management of Bonds in Common Enterprises" and "Details of the Implementation of Corporate Trading (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)". The price limit of 20%of the rising decline is mainly set up the next day of the convertible bond listing. At the same time, it also puts forward new requirements in the main aspects of investors' appropriateness, information disclosure, and abnormal transactions.

The industry generally believes that the implementation of new regulations will help the hype of convertible bonds, further prevent the risk of convertible bond transactions, and maintain the order of market transactions.

Li Yishuang, chief analyst of the fixed income of Cinda Securities, pointed out that the original attributes of convertible bonds were to fluctuate less than the main stock under the protection of the bond. The stir -fry phenomenon exacerbated the fluctuations of the state to some extent, and the combination of stable income category was essentially in nature On the basis of obtaining relative security income, pursue elastic income, and the stir -fry phenomenon limits the allocation of such investors to the configuration of convertible bonds. Noodles also return to the original attributes of assets such as convertible bonds, which will help pursue the allocation of stable income investors to allocate convertible bonds.

Regarding the increase in the threshold of participation, Deng Dong believes that the new regulations have added "2 -year transaction experience+100,000 yuan assets" to the new investors. Investors can continue to participate. The overall number of investors participating in the current convertible bond market is relatively sufficient. It is expected that it will not have a great impact on the liquidity of the market. The amount of new debt purchase will remain stable. In fact, the emergence of new regulations has brought some changes in the convertible bond market. Since June 20, the China Symptoms Convertible Index has once again entered a trend of shock adjustment. In the past 5 trading days, only 0.25%, Donglin Convertible Bonds and Tailin Convertible Bonds have fallen by more than 10%. On the other hand, the Doun convertible bonds, Tongguang convertible bonds, etc. have increased, and the increase in the past five days was 72%and 43%, respectively.

Xu Fuqiang said that the active current convertible bond market is caused by many factors. First of all, the supply of convertible bond markets in the past two years has increased, and many high -quality companies have issued convertible bonds one after another; second, when the rights market is better, convertible bond funds are used as a tool for income enhancement; Some characteristics of the debt itself, including the attributes and trading rules, have also attracted a group of investors. "After the new regulations were introduced, the hype of Libelo's high -priced and high premiums can operate more standardized operations." He said.

Strugging opportunities for structural

So, at the current point, is the convertible bond market ushered in a good opportunity? In the current market environment, what opportunities are worth focusing on? For investors' attention, First Financial reporter also interviewed a number of fund managers.

Xu Fuqiang told the First Financial Reporter that the equity market and the convertible bond market have undergone a round of adjustments since the beginning of the year. Although the current premium rate of the current convertible bonds is still high, the valuation of most of the positives of convertible bonds is at a lower score. In the future, if the stock is rising in the future, it should be able to digest the current conversion premium rate. Looking at it for a long time, the current configuration of convertible bond funds is likely to obtain absolute returns.

At the same time, he also reminded that the risk characteristics of convertible bonds are between stocks and bonds. Due to the characteristics of convertible bonds itself, convertible bond funds are expected to have a higher rate of return than bond funds, and the risk of retraining is greater, which is more suitable for investors with certain risk tolerance.

Specific to actual investment, which areas will be organic in the next stage?

Xu Fuqiang pointed out that at present, after the impact of the domestic epidemic, the economy is gradually recovering, but the height of recovery rebound is difficult to judge. Therefore, in the first round of the stock market, investors prefer to have long logic plates. You can see the performance of the track varieties during the rebound since May. New energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and other sectors quickly rebounded, and some stocks hit a record high.

Talking about the follow -up ideas, he bluntly stated: "We will closely follow the progress of economic recovery and pay attention to the repair of the profitability of listed companies. In particular, the midstream manufacturing industry that is doubled in the upstream raw material price increases, pay attention to the repair of PPI and CPI cracks Impact on these companies. "

Deng Dong said that there are structural investment opportunities in the current convertible bond market. Some convertible bonds have the ability to make profit and valuation repair and the value of long -term investment. The premium rate is also in a reasonable range. Essence To the specific industry sector, he said that he will mainly pay attention to the new energy sector that maintains the high level, the breeding sector that is expected to improve the industry, and the varieties that can continue to fulfill the stable growth of profit expectations.

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