The size of this large single product market is nearly 40 billion!Domestic replacement accelerates, and it is expected to build a second growth curve -Qianzhan Report

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

Lao Tie, good weekend! I am Qian Yanjun, and today I released the latest research results on the public account "Daida" -Qian Zhan Report.

In the past two months, the A -share market has performed very strong. With the continuous decline in the peripheral market, a wave of independent markets have been taken out.

Qian Yanjun noticed that many people began to discuss a long -lasting topic: Is the bull market come? As an investor, you need to be more cautious in the face of this phenomenon. In this context, Qian Yanjun has selected an industry that "attack and retreat". Next, Qian Yanjun will share the investment logic of the chemical lighting industry with the old iron.

In this issue of Qianzhan Research Report, the platinum version was launched to introduce three key listed companies in the chemical glowing industry. Welcome everyone to pay attention to the WeChat public account "Daida" for reading.

Disclaimer: This article and Qianzhan Research Report Platinum Edition is the main point of view of the most hot research newspaper from the industry's forward -looking version. The information provided by the article is for reference only and does not involve operating suggestions. Based on this, the risk is responsible!

Sure in vitro diagnostic industry chain

In vitro diagnosis (IVD) means that the blood, tissue, and urine of the human body are taken out, and the in vitro is tested. The doctor is diagnosed according to the results, combined with clinical symptoms and other testing methods. According to the testing technology platform, it can be divided into segments such as biochemical testing, immune detection, and blood detection.

Various in vitro diagnostic systems, the middle reaches of the industrial chain, are also the areas where many external diagnostic manufacturers are concentrated. The upstream is divided into reagents and equipment raw materials, such as the antigen/antibody of the diagnostic reagent; the downstream of the industry, in addition to hospital users, also includes third -party laboratories, medical examination centers, scientific research institutions, etc.

Evaluate Med Tech data shows that the capacity of the global in vitro diagnostic market in 2022 is expected to reach about 80.4 billion US dollars, and the average industry growth rate of the industry from 2017-2019 is 5.5%; the epidemic in 2020 is affected by the new crown testing demand, the industry's growth rate is greatly increased, the growth rate of industry growth is Increase to 15.0%.

According to the statistics of the "Blue Book of China Medical Devices (2021)", in 2021, the capacity of the in vitro diagnostic market in 2021 was about 107.1 billion, and due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate in 2020 reached 24%, and the remaining 20%increased in the rest of the year.

At present, the overall domestic production industry accounts for about 40%of the in vitro diagnosis industry, but the development stage and product characteristics of each sub -industry are different. The degree of domesticization is obvious. The domestic rate of blood cells and POCT products exceeds 50%. The domestic domestic rate is still low.

Chemical emission: nearly 40 billion market size large items

Today, the protagonist of Qianzhan Report is the largest segment of the in vitro diagnosis industry -chemical light immunity.

The core of chemical lighting immunity is the immune response of antigen-antibodies. After the labeling of chemicals or enzymes, it generates intensity under specific conditions, detects the intensity of the lighting, and translates to the corresponding detection concentration. By loading different antigen/antibodies, corresponding to different reagent items, auxiliary diagnosis of various parts and diseases of the human body.

Chemical lighting consists of instruments and reagents. Unlike other in vitro diagnostic products, the light emitting products are still mainly closed systems. From the manufacturer level, the product is the most important part, but to break out, other elements cannot have obvious shortcomings, including supply chain, research and development, access, marketing, etc. Therefore, the threshold for chemical glowing industry is relatively high.

According to Kalorama's estimates, the global chemical emitting market capacity in 2022 was about $ 25 billion, with an average growth rate of 6%. From 2015 to 2021, the domestic chemical emission industry maintained an average of 22.4%, which was higher than the global average. In 2022, the market capacity was close to 40 billion yuan. It is expected to maintain a average growth rate of nearly 20%from 2022 to 2023. After more than 10 years of development, the proportion of chemical glow in clinical immunity has doubled growth, exceeding the detection of enzymes, and has become the main clinical immune application technology.

Double -wheel drive: domestic alternative+out of sea

Let's take a look at the two core logic of the chemical emotional industry that can continue to grow.

The first core logic is domestic replacement and huge space.

Most of the domestic markets of chemical glow are still occupied by imported brands dominated by Luo Yabesi. The domestic proportion is less than 25%. Especially the third -level hospitals, the test results are strict, the test volume is huge, the demand for reagents is strong, and it is even more demanding. It is the market that imported manufacturers firmly control.

According to the calculation of the Guolian Securities, the tertiary hospital accounts for 32.3%of the chemical light emitting instrument space, of which 19.3%of the three hospitals account for 19.3%; the number of secondary hospitals is large due to the large number of bases and has high requirements for the richness of light emitting projects. More than %are still the main battlefields of domestic replacement.

Domestic replacement also has a very powerful support -policy support. In 2015, the State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission issued policies, and domestic replacement was clearly clear. Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang and other regions have also issued policies to encourage the procurement of domestic medical devices. After 2020, with the continuous improvement of the quality of various domestic medical equipment, the scope of domestic equipment encouraging purchases has continued to expand. It clarifies that in vitro diagnostic equipment such as chemical lighting. Under the premise of ensuring quality, domestic manufacturers should be prioritized.

Earlier, the market was worried about the impact of collecting compile on the chemical emotional industry. However, Guolian Securities believes that this collection is invited to negotiate. The target is the high domestic and foreign manufacturers of chemical emission markets. It will be a hard entry threshold. For industry leaders, it will expand their advantages and strong. After nearly ten years of development, the proportion of domestic luminous markets has increased from 10%to 25%. Under the influence of policies such as collecting collection, Guolian Securities predicts that the future domestic rate is expected to further increase.

The second core logic is going to sea, and it is expected to achieve a second growth curve.

Throughout the international areas, the Asia -Pacific and LAAM regions (Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East) have the overall IVD compound growth rate of 13.5%and 8.6%, which is much higher than the growth level of developed countries such as Europe and the United States. There is a growth rate of nearly 15%. For countries with a population of more than 100 million and a per capita GDP between 3,000-7000 US dollars (excluding India), the IVD market is still far unsaturated.

For example, the per capita IVD expenditure of Indonesia and the Philippines is $ 1.15 and $ 1.18, which is far lower than the IVD expenditure of $ 9.10 per capita per capita. In the case of increasing competition in the domestic market, chemical light -emitting manufacturers to go to sea can improve the stability of revenue structure through international sales, and can also improve the company's competitiveness.

In the past two years, the sales of the new crown test card, many manufacturers' products have gone abroad and received ideal overseas revenue. However, how to regularly sell overseas to form a company's long -term stable revenue is not what can be achieved overnight.

In this issue of Qianzhan Research Report, the platinum version was launched to introduce three key listed companies in the chemical glowing industry. Welcome everyone to pay attention to the WeChat public account "Daida" for reading.

Disclaimer: This article and Qianzhan Research Report Platinum Edition is the main point of view of the most hot research newspaper from the industry's forward -looking version. The information provided by the article is for reference only and does not involve operating suggestions. Based on this, the risk is responsible!

Risk tips: 1. The purchase of the volume of diagnostic reagents is significantly reduced; 2. The domestic and foreign epidemic conditions continued, the product installed was not as expected, and the reagent was not as much as expected; 3. The price of international brands was reduced.

The reference report of Qian Zhanyan in this issue is as follows:

Guolian Securities-Pharmaceutical ~ Chemical Everbright Industry Report: Domestic replacement continues to advance, and it is expected to achieve the second growth curve

China Merchants Securities-Medical Devices and Service Industry: Research Research Report (2) in the Research Series Research Series of China Medical Segment (2), find changes and constant changes in the industry

(The content of this article is only used as a reference and the basis for investment. Based on this, the risk is on its own)

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