Zhongyuan Securities Liu Ran: The valuation of the food and beverage industry has fallen, the market reverses, and high -quality assets are expected to obtain excess returns in segments

[Dahe Daily · Dahecai Cube] (Reporter Chen Yuyao Zhang Keyao) On June 25, Central Plains Securities opened online. Liu Ran, an analyst at the Central Plains Securities Research Institute, analyzed the theme analysis of the prospects of the food and beverage industry and investment strategy.

Liu Ran believes that the future of food and beverages is likely to enter the stage of "cost, rising gross profit margin". Under normal circumstances, food and drink consumption will regain normal growth, which may not reach the high increase in the past ten years, but it is better than the level of 2021 and 2020.

"In the second half of 2022, if the market circulation is stable, under the promotion of holidays and festivals, the sales growth of the food and beverage sector should be better than the first half of the year." Liu Ran said, "First, due to the strong growth of liquor sales; the other is food consumption. After the downturn, there are often replenishment and high increase in sales; in addition, the price of pork in the second half of the year is expected to continue to rise, driving the income growth of the food sector. "

In the A -share market, from January 1, 2021 to May 31, 2022, the food and beverage sector fell 12.75%. In addition to the special situation of soft drinks, the sub -items fell all of them and adjusted large and large declines.

In this round of adjustments, food fell more violently. Liu Ran believes that one is because food has increased more than the increase in costs, and the degree of profitability is better than drinking; the second is that food is based on people's livelihood consumption, and the affected people's livelihood consumption is greater than high -end consumption.

However, it said that this round of adjustment in the food and beverage industry has basically ended, and the reversal market has begun to see the initial in April 2022. In the second half of 2022, the sector is expected to gradually rise at the bottom of its own feelings to start a new round of cycle.

At the same time, after a long -term decline, the valuation of food and beverages fell sharply, and the local valuation was "blocked" by half. As of June 22, the price -earnings ratio of food and beverages was 37.6 times, a decrease of 31%from 55 times from January 1, 2021.

This also means that the valuation of the food and beverage industry has fallen and the market reversal is expected to usher in layout opportunities. To this end, Liu Ran put forward investment planning suggestions from the two perspectives of the blue chip target and the growth target.

In its opinion, blue -chip assets are generally affiliated with traditional manufacturing industries, such as beer, condiments, and food processing. In the second half of the year, the manufacturing cost will further fall, and the return on shareholders of blue -chip assets will improve, which will be reflected in the stock price. At the same time, in this round of adjustment, the market performance of core blue -chip assets is relatively stable, and the stock price decline is limited. It confirms that in the field of basic consumption, blue -chip assets have good anti -decline attributes.

The growth assets in the market market are still expected to continue to obtain excess returns, including: prefabrication, health products, frozen baking, cheese products, probiotics, and plant protein. The growth of market segments is basically remained at the level of two -digit number. Short -term disturbances cannot block long -term development trends in a field. Listing assets are often high -quality assets in the subdivided field. In one stage, they are expected to contribute excess returns.

It is worth noting that Liu Ran reminded that in the second half of the year, the consumer field may face the continuous high of raw materials, especially the risks of grain prices in geopolitical conflict; overseas demand decreases, listed companies export volume or overseas factories have declined.

Responsible editor: Shao Yuxiang | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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