Make more gold in every low, still appropriate

The Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points as scheduled, and in 2022 may continue to raise interest rates 175 basis points, which is gradually being priced by the market. The European Central Bank is about to start a new round of interest rate hikes, which will be favorable for the euro, and then favors the US dollar index, indirectly favorable gold.

Text | Founder Medium Futures History Liang Wang Jun

This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.

The Bank of the United States and Europe accelerates the tightening of monetary policy to impact the global economy, and the economic downturn is unavoidable. The possibility of falling into the economic recession is not ruled out, and the demand for risk aversion in the market is not ruled out. Therefore, the golden dumping configuration is still appropriate, and it is still recommended to do more gold every dips.

Under the influence of factors such as the impact of the global new crown pneumonia's epidemic, geopolitics and anti -globalization, the energy crisis, the food crisis and the supply chain crisis continue to trouble the global economy. Inhibit inflation will continue.

At present, the accelerated interest rate hikes such as the United States and Europe are the main theme of the macroeconomic and suppress inflation from the demand side, but it also has a greater impact on the economy. The economic recession of the United States has increased. Even if it has not fallen into economic recession, the possibility of economic decline is greatly increased. In Europe, in the Ukrainian situation and the new Brexit crisis, energy and supply chain crisis, and lack of endogenous economic growth momentum, the economic downturn is inevitable. Therefore, the policy accelerates tightening and economic recession, and continues to dominate the trend of gold.

1

This year may continue to raise interest rates 175 basis points

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The Federal Reserve's June interest rate hikes raised 75 basis points as scheduled, which was the largest single rate hike since November 1994. The Fed promised to resolutely restore the inflation rate to 2 % and reiterate that it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates, so it will continue to raise interest rates to suppress inflation. The meeting has completely lowered the expectations of GDP (GDP) in the next three years, and raised the median value of federal funds interest rates in the next three years.

Powell said that the 75 -basis point of interest rate hikes will not become the norm. In order to restore the inflation to normal, the next time it is still likely to raise interest rates by 50 ~ 75 basis points, hoping to maintain interest rates at a tightening level of 3 % to 3.5 % by the end of the year.

The Federal Reserve's June meeting declared the overall eagle, but whether it was the latest decision or the adjustment of the dotmap map, it has been expected to be checked by the market. Compared with the meeting statement, Powell's speech is more partial, and the financial market and the commodity market are also subject This impact, the US dollar index and US debt yields rose first, and the precious metals weakened first, and the US stocks rose across the board.

The Fed attempts to accelerate the tightening of inflation through monetary policy, but the degree of influence is weaker than Fed's expectations. This round of inflation is not only driven by the demand side, but also affected by the tight supply side. The Fed's super loose monetary policy and the U.S. federal government's super loose fiscal policy have made the demand end extremely strong and pushing inflation.

But on the other hand, the supply chain crisis caused by the epidemic and risks such as geopolitics have triggered an energy crisis and a food crisis to affect inflation from the supply side. Therefore, the promotion of inflation in this round of inflation is promoted at both ends of the supply and demand. To solve the problem of inflation, it is necessary to make efforts from both ends of supply and demand. The acceleration of the Fed's monetary policy will only suppress inflation from the demand side, but it cannot affect the supply side, and the speed of inflation and falling will weaken expectations. Therefore, it is only to rely on the Fed's monetary policy to accelerate the steering to suppress inflation, which has limited effects, and it is difficult to decline significantly.

For the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the focus of attention is still inflation and inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve policy tighten the inhibitory effect on inflation or not as expected. The path is 50 basis points (July) — 50 basis points (September) -n 10 basis points (November) — 25 basis points (December), or 75 basis points (July) — 50 basis points (September) (September) -25 basis points (November) -25 basis points (December).

The choice of paths will be adjusted according to the performance of inflation and inflation expectations. The inflation will still maintain a high level. The Fed will continue to raise interest rate hikes. It is expected that the latter is expected to achieve a lot of possibility. The shrinkage is normalized, and it is expected to expand in September to $ 95 billion.

2

The European Central Bank started the interest rate hike period in July

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According to data from the EU Statistical Bureau, the final value of the consumer price index (CPI) in the euro zone in May increased by 8.1 % year -on -year, which was the same as expected and initial value. 0.8 %, the same is the same as the expected and initial value, and the previous value is 0.6 %.

Eliminating the large fluctuations and energy, the core adjustment of the CPI in the euro zone in May increased by 3.8 %, which was flat at the expected and initial value, and the April increased by 3.5 %. From the perspective of subdivision, the largest contribution to the euro area inflation in May was energy, and the price rose 3.87 %, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco, and then service prices and non -energy industrial products.

European inflation is promoted by the rise in energy prices after the impact of the epidemic and the geographical conflict. It has currently affected all sub -areas, from food and services to all aspects of daily commodities. The increase in inflation in the euro zone is four times the goal of the European Central Bank, highlighting the urgency of the European Central Bank to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy to inhibit the rise in prices.

In terms of the European Central Bank, European Central Bank officials based on the European Central Bank Governor Lagarde also successively issued the views and suggestions of monetary policy adjustment, emphasizing the need for high inflation. For Europe, the energy crisis, food crisis, and the supply chain crisis continue to trouble the economy, and the possibility of debt crisis is not ruled out. Under high inflation, the European Central Bank is also necessary to accelerate interest rate hikes. Based on the performance of European inflation and expectations, the policy perspective of officials of the European Central Bank, and the statement of the President of the European Central Bank, the European Central Bank opened in July to start the rate hike cycle.

The focus of attention is the interest rate hike in September. The European Central Bank does not rule out the possibility of 50 basis points in September, which supports the euro. The euro has fallen for a short time because of the strong dollar, but the space below the euro is limited, and there is still room for rise in the market outlook.

3

The US economic recession is concerned about intensifying

Following the unexpected decline of retail data in the United States in May, the industrial output data performance in the United States in May has also been weak. In May, the output value of manufacturing fell by 0.1 % month -on -month, while the first two months increased by 0.8 %, the first decline in 4 months. The weak manufacturing output value data shows that the increase in loan costs, the cooling of certain consumer goods, and the economic slowdown concerns are beginning to suppress the development of the manufacturing industry.

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Both the supply and demand are weak, and the downward trend of the US economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the possibility of falling into decline is not ruled out. On the one hand, the energy crisis, the food crisis and the supply chain crisis continue to trouble the global economy, and the cost of production and living has continued to increase and impact the economy. On the other hand, the Fed accelerates the tightening of monetary policy and suppress inflation from the demand side, but has a greater impact on the economy. The weakening of US macroeconomic data such as retail sales and new houses in the near future also indicates that the economic weakness is inevitable. Even if it has not fallen into economic recession, the possibility of economic decline is greatly increased.

Now the market is worried about the economic recession, whether it is the macroeconomic data performance or the impact of monetary policy turning, also includes the impact of the supply side. The economic recession is still heating up. It has also become the core logic of the current financial market and commodity market fluctuations. The bull market or near the end, there is still a large space for risk assets. For precious metals with risk aversion attributes, the configuration value is still high. It is recommended to continue to configure it every divation.

4

The gold dointed configuration is still appropriate

The pace of adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy, concerns about economic recession, and the progress of geopolitical situations continue to dominate the precious metal market. The superflief, the situation is good, and the economy is still strong and expensive metal, otherwise it has a profitable impact. Policies tighten the expected short -term impact on precious metals, accelerate the tightening of the policy to land, and the geopolitical relief has not occurred in the short term. The liquidity is still flooding. Increased demand, precious metals will return to the strong market again. Domestic precious metals continue to pay attention to the trend of RMB exchange rate.

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The Federal Reserve's accelerated tightening of monetary policy is expected to make precious metals be under pressure. The $ 1,800/ounce is still the core support. As the Fed's policy tightening has gradually been priced by the market, the economic recession is concerned about intensified, the geographical situation is not substantial, and the demand for asset allocation is affected by factors.

The support level below the Shanghai gold is 387 ~ 390 yuan/gram, and the top of the 420 yuan/gram is continued above. The Federal Reserve has released a more eagle signal (the US dollar index and US debt yields increased), and precious metals still have a short -term possibility of weakening again. However, precious metals are buying the opportunity to buy due to policy adjustment and panic. It is recommended to maintain a mid -length operation that is configured.

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