International oil prices have been adjusted at a high level.

23.06.2022

Number of this text: 2074, reading time for about 4 minutes

Guide: International oil prices continue to "softened" this week. Affected by this, domestic refined oil prices may be reduced within the year.

Author | First Finance Lu Ruyi

Recently, international oil prices have been adjusted sharply. On June 22, the price of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Commodity Exchange fell 3.04%, closed at $ 106.19/barrel, and once fell 7%during the market, fell to $ 102/barrel, setting a new low since May 12; Futures prices fell 2.54%to close at $ 111.74/barrel, and hit $ 107.03 in the market, the lowest since May 19.

First Financial reporter noticed that the last trend of international oil prices was still on Friday.

On June 17, the Fed announced a 75 -basis point of interest rate hikes, a single rate hike since 1994. Affected by the panic of the "interest rate hikes" and the economy may fall into a recession, as of the close of the day, the price of the New York Commodity Exchange WTI crude oil futures fell 8.03 US dollars and closed at $ 109.56/barrel, a decline of 6.83%; London's cloth cloth; London's cloth cloth; The price of Lente's crude oil futures fell 6.69 US dollars to close at $ 113.12/barrel, a decline of 5.58%, announcing the "end" of New York's "seven -week rising" trend of oil prices and Brent oil prices.

ICIS Global crude oil analyst Barney Gray said in an interview with the First Financial reporter: "Last week, international oil prices fell sharply. The largest range), the British and other European central banks also announced their interest rate hikes. "

In its latest crude oil daily review, Xingye Investment (UK) believes that the new round of international oil prices on June 22 was due to investors' concerns about the central bank's raising interest rates and new crown pneumonia that could cause economic recession to suppress the demand for fuel.

U.S. President Biden promotes gasoline tax reductions and US Petroleum Society (API). Oil inventory of crude oil inventory is also the driving factor that promotes the downlink of the international oil price of the rotation. On June 22, Biden delivered a speech at the White House, calling on Congress to approve the suspension of federal gasoline tax for 90 days, and hopes that the states will take corresponding gasoline tax reductions. First Financial reporter's latest data from the US Petroleum Association (API) found that as of the week of June 17, API crude oil inventory increased by 5.607 million barrels to 411 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of April 8, 2022.

"Only after the lack of oil refining capacity and other supply problems can be resolved, can gasoline prices soar the trend of long -term relief." JP Morgan Chase analyzed that Americans' intervention measures to lower gasoline prices will offset some of the factors that suppress consumption, but push it instead. High gasoline prices. Intervention measures are currently discussed include reducing gasoline taxes, adjusting the requirements of biofuels, and restricting fuel exports. These measures encourage people to drive more. Only when demand decreases, gasoline prices will decline.

It is worth noting that in the early morning of June 23 (Beijing time), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued a statement saying that it will not release a weekly crude oil inventory report on June 23, because the "system problem" occurs. The weekly oil inventory data that was announced will be postponed at least next week.

"Is the current international crude oil market 'supply and demand gap" alleviating is a difficult question. "Barney Gray, an ICIS global crude oil analyst, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter:" At present, the international crude oil market The main concern is under the impact of Russia's sanctions. The market will lose up to 3 million barrels of Russian crude oil every day. But the situation is not the case, and the market supply is tightened. Russia's crude oil output is supported by low -cost Russian crude oil, but in the West is purchasing additional crude oil from other places. "

"From the perspective of the supply side of international crude oil, 'OPEC+' has little room for increasing production, because only Saudi and the UAE have some idle capacity." Gray told the first financial reporter: "Some member states have far lower than quotas, and recently Weekly supply as many as 1 million barrels per day from Libya's crude oil that is temporarily lost. In the recent oil price 'crisis', I think the role of' OPEC+'is very passive, and it is almost unable to intervene'. "

Hu Qimu, chief researcher at the Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter: "This round of international oil prices is mainly due to the sharp interest rate hike in the Fed in June. The market is withdrawn. Although the international oil prices have been called back now, compared with the starting point of the rise in this round, it is still at a high level. "

"From the perspective of the supply side, due to the continuous influence of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the impact of the supply has not been resolved; the demand side, although it is said that the US economy may fall into recession, as the demand of China has further recovered, it is possible to drive the world again. The price of commodities such as crude oil. Therefore, from the perspective of supply demand, international oil prices are expected to rebound. "Hu Qimu said.

According to the relevant provisions of the "Administration of Petroleum Price", the continuous decline of international crude oil will directly lead to the corresponding adjustment of domestic refined oil prices.

At present, the adjustment time of domestic refined oil prices is 24:00 on June 28.According to statistics on the 7th working day of the oil price adjustment cycle, the accumulated accumulation of accumulating oil price is 190 yuan/ton. After the increasing increase, it is expected that the retail price of gasoline and diesel will fall by 0.15 yuan/liter to 0.16 yuan/liter.The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission previously stated publicly: "According to the relevant provisions of the" Administrative Measures for Petroleum Price ", the high retail prices of domestic refined oil (gasoline, diesel) are adjusted every 10 working days according to the changes in the international market crude oil price.The adjustment of the price is based on the comparison of the international oil price average of 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average value of the previous 10 working days. "

First Financial reporter noticed that since this year, the price of domestic refined oil products has been adjusted 11 times, of which 10 are raised, 1 down, and the last domestic oil price has been reduced (April 15), which has passed more than two months.

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